Meh. 2024 is far enough away that I won’t make predictions about whether or not she see a primary challenge. But I will point out she is increasingly unpopular with Arizona Democrats. If she continues being an obstacle to the advancement of Biden’s agenda I expect that to get worse.
The polling of Sinema’s approval back in Arizona shows she has lost a lot of ground with Democrats but has picked up some more support from independents and a lot more Republican support. The thing is that swing of Republican support will do her no good in a primary effort among fellow Democrats. But the flip side is she is not up for re-election until 2024. I reckon if a primary were held next week she would be beaten but she gets to see out the entirety of Biden’s term as a major player in the senate and there is nothing we can do about it if we don’t make her position as a swing vote in the senate null by electing more Democrats to increase the majority next year.
For whatever “leaked” internal polls are worth (i.e. not much), former NC Governor Pat McCrory’s campaign claims to have a 15 point lead on Rep. Tedd Budd in Republican primary for next year’s Senate election. Budd has been endorsed by Trump (who announced his surprise endorsement at a fundraiser with McCrory sitting right in front of him).
Of course there’s a long time to go until the primary, and Democrats seem fractured themselves among a half dozen or so candidates. While one of their best opportunities, this is still going to be a tough pickup for Democrats.
Yeah but “support” is ephemeral from Republicans; a lot of them may poll positively towards her because they see regular news reports that Democrats don’t like her. In our current political environment, I find it very unlikely they will actually vote for her when she has a (D) next to her name.
I’ll note that Sinema won election with roughly the same percent that Mark Kelly did, I think she’s largely in office because of the Democrats of Arizona, not the Republicans, if her support among Arizona dems has genuinely cratered then she will be at very high risk of replacement in 2024.
I think this is exactly right. Sinema and Manchin are in significantly different boats, I think.
Sinema is in office because Arizona has shifted towards Democrats. She will only win reelection if she has the support of Democrats and Independents. Her stance as a “moderate” Democrat may help her with Independents, but unless she ultimately gets to yes on some issues that are important to Democrats I could see her vulnerable to an attack from the left.
As you rightly point out, Mark Kelly, who actually is up for reelection in 2022, is taking a very different tack wrt to the BBB bill, and they both got elected with pretty much the exact same voters. So one of them is wrong about the wants of their constituents.
Manchin is different because he only gets reelected with LOTS of GOP voters. And he hasn’t run in a Presidential cycle since 2012, when things were very different politically. I honestly think he’s a dead politician walking, at least as a Democrat, and is either planning a move to Independent or a non-elected position in the future. I just find it impossible to believe anybody with a (D) after their name will win state-wide in WV in 2024.
Manchin is a weird political figure that I’ve followed for many years (despite being from the other Virginia, or as I call it the Real Virginia, I have a hunting / recreational property in eastern West Virginia and have spent a ton of time in the state since the 1980s), old West Virginia was a sort of Southern Democratic Party that had died off decades earlier in most of the rest of the South.
There was a huge block of union and union adjacent workers who simply would never vote for anyone without a D next to their name, that was mostly ending by the 2000s, but still was enough to make the State fairly divided politically until Obama’s second term. There was an older guy (since passed) that I knew, very very politically conservative, but he was a retired machinist who had worked in coal mines and part of the old “machine” Democrats. Despite having almost no political positions in common with Barack Obama, he voted for him twice (2012 was his last election he was alive to see.) I was once discussing politics with his two adult sons and him (both of them are hardcore Republicans), and they were needling him about why he kept voting for Democrats. His response was “I’ve never cast a vote for any Republican in my life, and I never will until the day I die.” This was a guy whose political preferences actually were developed during FDR’s Presidency, and whatever happened in his life back then he was immune to any form of political persuasion other than blind and unwavering partisan loyalty. [This actually is a documented phenomenon–a number of voters who came to the Democratic party during FDR’s Presidency remained Democrats for the entirety of their lives, regardless of changing policy preferences.]
In this environment you have a young Joe Manchin emerge, he is the nephew of A. James Manchin, or “AJ” Manchin, who had been a sort of “kingmaker” in West Virginia Democratic politics since the 1960s. AJ never held officer higher than State Treasurer and Secretary of State, but he was long rumored to sort of be a back-room kingmaker who had a hand in supporting various Democratic officials who had proceeded to higher office. A part of Northern West Virginia’s small but influential Italian American community, AJ was frequently seen in full pin-striped suit and fedora until his death in 2003.
Joe Manchin first came into my radar in the 1996 West Virginia Democratic primary for Governor. Manchin was in a bitter primary against Charlotte Pritt, who was a more liberal and “national” Democrat but held views like being pro-choice that were widely out of step with West Virginia.
Pritt also pushed for the development of new industries in West Virginia to end dependence on coal extraction, in some ways the primary was a watershed moment in West Virginia Democratic politics because of what happened after it. Namely, Joe snuffed out Democrats like her in the state.
After losing the primary (the only election since he was elected to the House of Delegates in 1982 in which Manchin has suffered a defeat, and he’s been in politics continually since that time), Manchin sent a letter to 900 leading Democrats in the State saying he could not support Pritt because she “was ignoring the needs of moderate and conservative Democrats” he endorsed Republican Cecil Underwood. A group was formed called “Democrats for Underwood”, that was backed and funded by most of the Democratic establishment in the State.
Despite all this, in 1996 having a (D) next to your name meant a lot, and there were a lot of people like my friend who no matter what any party official said, would simply never vote for a Republican. So despite essentially running against a Republican endorsed by her own party against her, Pritt lost, but she lost 51.6% to 45.8%. In 2000 Manchin ran for, and won, election as secretary of state, which started his ascendancy.
The West Virginia party had largely been dominated by Manchin-style politicians after the 1996 election, but that did little to save the party from ruin. The emergence of the nationalization of politics and the dying off of New Deal era loyalist Democrats simply made the (D) next to one’s name an unelectable badge in the new era and the Democrats steadily saw losses across the spectrum of politics until the GOP held supermajorities in both houses of the legislature, all three of the state’s congressional seats (it will fall to two in 2022.) Jim Justice ran as a pro-Trump Democrat when he got elected Governor and basically crushed his primary opponents with massive spending (he’s a billionaire), but he switched parties to Republican a couple years into his first time, leaving Manchin the only significant politician in the state affiliated with the Democrats.
Manchin has managed to survive and surprise, but he’s also burned a lot of bridges over the years, and I’m skeptical he can continue to do so come the next election. I think there’s a ton of the remaining Democrats in WV who would be willing to lose control of the Senate to see him lose election, which means some may just refuse to vote for him or vote third party on that line, and while Dems are only like 30% of the voters in the State he needs almost all of them to cobble together a win.
Perfect is the enemy of the good, cutting off your nose to spite your face, and any other similar sayings apply to people who think like that. I don’t get it. Would they rather have McConnell in the majority, calling for senate investigations into the Biden administration, obstructing judicial appointments, and so on, just to spite Joe Manchin? I know that there are in fact people like that, but for the life of me I don’t understand their thinking.
So there’s been battles in WV politically for years, most people who remain Democrats in West Virginia are part of the more liberal wings of the party. Like I would wager most people who still call themselves Democrats in West Virginia are to the left of Manchin. Why? Because the GOP has grown so explosively in the State it has mostly sucked away all the moderate and conservative voters. While the more liberal wing of the Democratic party wasn’t particularly powerful during the time Manchin ascended the political rungs, it’s the core of what is left in the State for Democrats now. Many of them essentially see that the State is a lost cause for the party, and simply want to see Manchin rejected personally.
Looks like Mitch has given up his half-hearted attempt to deny Herschel Walker the Republican nomination in Georgia. I imagine Mitch still thinks Walker is a bad candidate, but he can see which way the wind is blowing so better to get on board than futilely divide the party.
Sure, but this is A LOT bigger than those that are upset that the remnants of the state Democratic Party of West Virginia are in the minority in that state. Giving Republicans control of the senate at this critical point in our history could very well mean the difference between the US remaining a democracy vs. Trump returning to power in 2024 and continuing a transition to a government more like what they have in places like Turkey or Russia. I don’t believe that’s an exaggeration. To side with those who would rather have Trump back in office just because they don’t get to rule from their minority (within WV) position seems really stupid to me.
ETA: This would be like when Scott Brown won the special election in MA after Ted Kennedy died, only 100x worse.
ETA 2: Yes, I understand Manchin isn’t up for election again until 2024. I’m referring more to the idea of chasing him out of the party right now.
Understood, and thanks. I’ve followed W.Va. politics from a distance for awhile. Its steady move to the right, in favor of a party which has done nothing over the years to help the ordinary working people of the state but is (apparently most important to them) pro-gun, pro-Jesus and anti-abortion, and now pro-Trump, is truly sad to see.
West Virginia has also been pushed to the right by the Democrat’s war on fossil fuels and fracking. Fossil reserves have been a huge bright spot in WV’s future, and Democrats want that to end. It’s probably why Biden has a 19% approval rating in that state.
There are plenty of threads where the merits of Joe Manchin are being debated, but given the title of this thread I’ll point out that West Virginia doesn’t have a Senate election in 2022.
Maybe we can also hand out cartons of cigarettes to schoolkids. That will make a Huge Bright Spot in Philip Morris’ future! What a shame Democrats want that to end. Those dirty socialists are letting a little thing like lung cancer stand in the way of Profit!! ™
It’s glib bullshit rhetoric like this that cost Virginia Democrats the 2021 election. You think there’s a substantive socio-political difference between most of western Virginia and West Virginia? West Virginia’s largest viable economy is the fossil fuel industry. It would behoove Democrats to give that some consideration and come up with a way of not alienating a state that elected a Democratic Senator who knows his constituency.
Biden just said in COP26 that the OPEC states would need to increase fossil fuel production in the short term while the world works to transition to green energy infrastructure and reduced emissions. Perhaps, in a show of good faith, the Biden Administration could say to W.V. that they too can be part of that bridge solution to renewable energy. That might help Democratic party chances in 2022/24. It certainly can’t hurt.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R) announcing this morning that he will not challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in next year’s Senate race. This is good news for Hassan, who nevertheless still remains one of the most vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senators up in 2022.
This excellent news for sure. No guarantee Hassan will be reelected but there really isn’t another potential GOP nominee who would be as strong as Sununu out of the gate.
What if we offered to provide assistance to help those who lose their jobs in the coal industry due to mechanization and reduced demand?
Oh wait, that’s exactly what we did do, and it was turned into a claim that the Democrats wanted them to lose their jobs by the usual liars and propagandists on the right.
While there is some oil in West Virginia, it is not in the same places as the coal miners are, and it will only provide a small fraction of the jobs that coal mining used to provide.
Let me be clear, the reason that the West Virginians are losing coal mining jobs is not due to Democratic policies, but due to automation and competition from lower cost energy sources. Voting in Republicans will not bring those jobs back. However, the Democrats actually do care about the people, and want to help them. The Republicans do not, and will just use propaganda and lies, as that is all they actually are willing to offer to the residents of West Virginia.
Well, that and bathroom bills.
Here’s the problem. Democrats are very good at talking about a future that may never materialize:
But they need to start learning to talk about the present and what they can do for people who are already out of work. It won’t be easy, but better than promises made before their time. Also, coal union worker are currently on strike because the coal companies have mismanaged and screwed workers out of pensions, benefits and jobs. Maybe I missed this in the news cycle, but I have not heard a single Democrat talking about protecting these workers or standing in solidarity with them. Seems to me, these blue collar workers used to be the bread and butter of Democratic party politics.
Well, the part of that that may never materialize is if the bill that was being proposed that would create those jobs didn’t get passed. The fact that it creates 20,000 jobs, not necessarily 20,000 jobs directly in clean energy is a pretty minor. That it is impossible to perfectly predict the future, meaning that saying something “will” happen is always going to suggest greater certainty than warranted. OTOH, had she said, “might”, then she’d be accused of waffling.
Right, and that’s what Clinton got penalized for, saying what she would do with the people who were currently out of work. Apparently, they don’t want job retraining or relocation assistance, they don’t want a handout in welfare, they want their jobs back. Their jobs in the private sector, which the govt has no control over.
You mean all those Alabama Democrats? Anyway, just because you missed it, doesn’t mean that it doesn’t happen.
Odd that you phrased it that way, as the first line of the story is:
(My emphasis:)
Or did you mean people outside of Alabama?
Anyway, yeah, the coal miner strike in Alabama hasn’t made huge waves in the newsphere, but as far as strikes overall:
(note, this is not claiming that she was tweeting support for the coal miners specifically, but for strikers and unions in general)
But this sounds like the unions in Alabama (which is, checks map, no a part of West Virginia) are in fact being supported by the Democratic party.
Yeah, they are, but they vote for union busting Republicans, then complain that the Democrats didn’t do enough to protect their unions.