Sure, but is there some law that says they can’t release what they have?
I saw something that said they couldn’t release anything while folks are still in line to vote. And something else about a few Clark County precincts with issue and a possible lawsuit to allow additional time. Maybe those two things are delaying results?
I don’t care that much, since it looks like we will have a recount in GA, but it is a bit odd.
ABC just called PA for Fetterman! That’s a Dem flip/
The BBC has some results from Nevada, but only from 5 counties. Including some from Clark County, but none from Washoe County.
NEVADA: Not looking good for Cortez Masto, but we probably won’t know for sure until maybe tonight or even tomorrow.
ARIZONA: Looking good for Kelly. I expect to know by mid-afternoon today.
WISCONSIN: Happy to see a surprisingly strong showing by Barnes – he almost overcame all those attack ads – but sadly, the key word is “almost.” He’ll likely lose by just a few thousand votes. Pretty amazing “comeback,” but not enough to oust the idiot traitor Johnson.
So that means it all comes down to a GEORGIA runoff – again! Get those Peach State postcards and likely-voters-who-need-reminders lists going! (My wife, son, and I hand-wrote a thousand of them two years ago, while listening to James Brown, R.E.M., and Outkast).
The prediction markets still have Cortez-Masto as likely to win, because the NV experts are saying there are over 100K mail in ballots remaining from Las Vegas and Reno.
Very sorry to post this. Ryan ran about as good a race as any Dem could in Ohio in this climate, but it wasn’t nearly good enough, dammit.
Cortez Masto seems to be about a 50-50 proposition at this point (my own summary of varied sources).
Kelly (in Arizona) seems to be about 85% likely to win at this point (again my own summary)…I’d expect that race to be called if the next batch of processed votes pushes that likelihood over 90%, which it probably will. Maybe around mid-morning today?
perhaps 3ish nevada/arizona time.
counting centres start around 8-9 am get the machines prepped, get the ballots unlocked and prepped, get the people prepped; 10ish start time if all goes well.
get a good amount counted to be released… 3 ish.
According to Yvonne Wingett Sanchezof the Washington Post and Brahm Resnik of KPNX-TV, Maricopa County, Arizona, has between 400,000 and 410,000 ballots left to count. The next update from the county will be between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. for you East Coasters.
Actually 8 to 11 for east coasters. NV is in the Pacific time zone.
A couple Jon Ralston Tweets from last night…
This is very promising.
When is the next NV vote drop?
5-8pm pacific time. lots of time to get stuff done before gluing in on a news source.
A very interesting account, I thought:
Networks usually not too far behind.
Revisiting this.
Vote tallies are not final in any state yet, so the following analysis is preliminary.
So the RCP Senate Projection (link) looked at the RCP average of the net difference in percent of vote between the D and R candidates of ten swing states. They then applied an adjustment to those numbers that appeared to be based on polling error in that state in previous elections.
So we have two models form RCP: straight RCP average and adjusted RCP average.
Furthermore, 538 forecasts the same net difference (among other things) in their senate forecast (link): Lite, Classic, and Deluxe.
We can directly compare these models across these ten states using root mean square error (RMSE) and rank them from best to worst. Lower RMSE is better.
| Model | RMSE |
|---|---|
| 538 Deluxe | 3.92 |
| 538 Classic | 4.13 |
| 538 Lite | 4.24 |
| RCP Average | 5.58 |
| RCP Adjusted | 6.06 |
So, at least at this preliminary stage, we can see that all the 538 models performed better than both RCP models, and the 538 models got better from lite to classic to deluxe.
But the thing I actually was curious about was did RCP’s adjustment improve their model? And at this point it looks like it did not.
Mark Kelly is now up by 123K with the batch that just popped. Yay.
And that was from what was supposed to be R friendly area! He’s just been called the winner!
It seems to me that there’s somewhat of a tendency for pollsters to over-correct their errors from the previous cycle. If that is indeed true, then RCP’s adjustment would have simply made things worse.
That’s exactly what Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) speculated might happen, in a podcast a couple days before the election.
(And thanks for generating those RMS errors, Lance_Turbo – just what I had been curious about. Overall it shows POLLING wasn’t terrible this time (but has its challenges, for sure)…and that FiveThirtyEight’s MODEL algorithms are doing quite well, though when so many races are so close, even small misses can loom large.)