Guys and gals, I don’t know what to say that I haven’t been saying since 2014…
Or 2007 for that matter:
I once used my charts to do very well in Oscar pools because the same correlations in BP also impacted the other races - effectively, the more people saw a movie, the more likely it would win the award in that category. BO wasn’t the determing factor, but it allowed me to automatically strike films from the list of potential winners which improved my odds. Have no idea who is going to win cinematography? It definitely won’t be the movie in that category that the fewest people watched, that’s for sure. The rest might be artistic merit or ‘we owe this person’ or whatever, but it won’t be the film that no one saw.
And the correlations still matter, but nowhere near as much as they did prior to 2008 - prior to that point BO was the primary indicator of which movies were seen. Since then, the numbers are increasingly murky. And I have… and had, as that 2014 post shows… no problem admitting this as well.