2024 Democratic Primary Polls

Politics & Elections
1

Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (538 rating: A) poll in the field April 21-24…

I’m going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Candidate Percent
Joe Biden 62%
Robert Kennedy, Jr. 19%
Marianne Williamson 9%

Emerson College (538 rating: A-) poll in the field April 24-25…

Among these candidates, who would you be most likely to vote for in the Democratic primary in 2024?

Candidate Percent
Joe Biden 70.4%
Robert Kennedy, Jr. 21.4%
Marianne Williamson 8.1%

Seriously? The two whack-a-doodles are combining for ~30%?

Hopefully, this just means the “Anybody But Biden” crowd among Dem primary voters caps out at around 30%.

2

I think that is likely. I’ll hate the idea of voting for an 80 year old for President. This is a horrible situation honestly.

3

Notable in the Emerson poll the ‘anybody but Biden’ rate is 35%, but drops to ~30% when given actual alternative choices.

4

So basically, you’ve 20% that go “well no Biden, but I know the name Kennedy”. 10% that go “Wait a second, isn’t that Kennedy a whackjob? I’ll vote for this Williamson woman.” And then 5% that go “Oh these are both whackjobs. I’ll guess I’ll vote for Biden.”

5

Biden:

“My dad had an expression,” Biden said during a June fundraiser in San Francisco. “ 'Joey, don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative. ’ ‘’

He gains five points when compared to the alternative. He’ll gain many more when there are no alternatives. Yes, just about everybody is concerned about his age and wishes that either he were younger or that somebody else was an alternative. There are no alternatives in the Democratic Party. And the likely alternative in the actual race is either Trump or DeSantis.

Never have early polls been more meaningless than this year.

6

I agree that it’s meaningless, but I’m still shocked that those weirdos got 30%. I assume this was a poll of just Democrats, right?

7

Yes. This question, in both polls, was asked only of people who said they intended to vote in the Democratic primary.

I’m still stunned that 1 in 5 are choosing Kennedy and/or believing he’s a Democrat. Maybe they don’t know who he hangs out with.

8

That’s what I’m saying. He’s getting the people who A) don’t want Biden and B) don’t know anything about Kennedy but recognize the name.

9

There are registered Democrats who haven’t voted for a Democrat in the general election since Jimmy Carter. They’ll cast a disruptive vote in the primary and vote GOP in the general.

10

That’s a weird poll. Why only two possibilities other than Biden, and why those specific other two possibilities? Was somebody trying to design a poll that would favor Biden? Were they trying to figure out how many people know one Kennedy from another?

11

Probably the only ones that actually declared their intent to run.

12

This…

Those are the people running in the Democratic primary at this point. Who would you include and why?

13

Ah. I hadn’t been paying much attention so far to who’s declared, though I did notice that Biden has; I generally wait to start researching candidates until the fall before the primaries. If that’s all the opposition that turns up, I won’t have to spend time doing research in that race, anyway.

And I suppose other candidates worth voting for might defer to Biden, in the current circumstances and considering in particular the likely opponents; on the grounds that they figure the Democrats need unity right now. A sitting POTUS often gets some of that effect even when the stakes don’t look so high.

14

Nobody’s really running against Biden. Kennedy wants to get his anti-vax message out, and Williamson is an author trying to get more book sales. Neither one expects to have a chance of beating Biden, but hey, we’re talking about them, so they’re accomplishing what they set out to do.

15

All the Republican brain trust need to do is convince Corrupt Clarence and his crooked judge friends to share their spoils with RFK jr to run as an independent and that would likely ensure a Trump presidency.

16

Wouldn’t that just encourage the billionaire left to find a Republican to run as another independent and cut off a share of Trump’s vote?

17

Think the “left” can find a couple billionaires? :wink:

18

I’ll look in my couch cushions.

19

:scream::nerd_face::joy:

20

And what percentage of those polled hung up as soon as the pollster started asking crazy stupid questions like the Democratic primary race in a year when we have a President still eligible? Just the fact that they were polling at all is going to select the respondents towards the crazies.