Here is my most optimistic prediction.
Harris 308 EV
Trump 230 EV
Harris keeps all the blue wall states and picks up IA. She keeps GA (not at all sure about this, but I’m staying optimistic) and picks up NC. She loses AZ and NV.
Optimist reason 1 — Maps showing donor data in a very granular way. Harris is doing really well in the states I think she’ll pick up, in some cases the numbers are comparable to those in blue states (this is why I’m predicting a surprise pickup in IA.).
Those maps reflect an enthusiasm in the Eastern swing states that’s just not there for Trump, in my light blue zip code 80% of the donors gave to Harris. My optimism requires the belief that donors tend to be enthusiastic supporters and that the enthusiasm can be contagious and that friends, family and coworkers can be motivated by an enthusiastic supporter in their midst.
Those maps don’t reflect the same enthusiasm in AZ and NV, which is why I’m putting them in the Trump column.
Optimist reason 2 -Marist October polls which show a double digit Harris advantage among people that have already voted in some of the swing states.
Now some of this might be explained by the conventional wisdom that Dems are more likely to vote early, but - at least in NC - the early voter data for the same period shows percentages of D, R and independent votes that roughly correspond to overall makeup of NC voters.
It’s still going to be a nail-biter and Harris still might lose and I think that, due to her late entry, a lot of less engaged potential voters don’t feel they really know her….this may work against her.
But I also think that the racial justice protests in 2020 caused a lot of independent voters to go Republican and I don’t think the Gaza protests had the same far reaching effect. I am still somewhat concerned about Gaza issues suppressing the youth vote.
I’m choosing to remain optimistic because it’s not going to change the outcome and it’s more pleasant than pessimism.