The context is expectation of overall turnout, with this comment-
being the basis for a prediction of poor D turnout overall.
Muslim voters are not the large cohort impacting overall turnout. A few tens of thousands different in MI than in 2020 which might be significant but not the huge national turnout driver. The bigger group who might be turned off are younger progressives who consider themselves “anti-Zionist”. A reasonable fear but not one that I see evidence of.
That’s something I noticed and mentioned around here around a year ago. It hit me when my normally (publicly) non-political millennial niece posted that she could not support either candidate since they both support murdering children in their homes. This is someone I would pick to vote blue 100 times out of 100. You can dismiss this as being insignificant but in a close race in battleground states I don’t know if anything is insignificant.
My prediction is that Harris will win, including winning PA and perhaps even FL. My analysis is essentially the same as this from electoral-vote.com:
Link to this item (it’s the last paragraph, but the whole item is worth reading): You Can Vote Dem or You Can Vote Dem… agogue
Curious. Yes n of one but still. That was when? If it was before last week, let alone more than a month ago, can you please ask her if she is still planning on sitting it out?
I’m guessing that the extreme closeness (to polls leaning Trumpward) and the extreme odiferousness on current display, may have a few of these who were saying they were not voting as protest change their plans.
Even without that I had been thinking it’s like 3rd party protest vote: when voting day comes many of them don’t vote third party after all and “come home”.
All quite possible. My niece is a 30 something white girl. Maybe those like her have stepped back and weighed the options with less emotion. But she’s not close to it like thousands of other potential voters. Like others I’m worried about Michigan. If that domino falls I don’t see a good outcome.
What do you mean by “close to it”?
She doesn’t have a personal connection. She’s not Jewish. She’s not Muslim. She has no personal connection to the Middle East. Those that have a connection may not be willing to do the cold equations to vote for who might only be marginally better to them.
They’re the volume of voters that were worried about early on: young anti-Zionist progressives wanting to punish Harris for inadequate action. As to Arab votes: the two polls we have saying they are gone are either from an organization that is strongly motivated to send a message, and one that we reviewed elsewhere and is very questionable. But IF true and followed through on, worst case there is an under 50K hit in MI, less than a percent. With the if being very questionable.
The only thing I feel confident of is that the GOP will pick up either 1 or 2 Senate seats and not lose any. They will obviously pick up West Virginia. If I had to bet I’d bet that no other Senate seat flips in either direction except WV, with the exception of Ohio. If the GOP picks up two seats, the second will be Ohio.
If the GOP picks up two seats, the second will almost certainly be Montana.
Yesterday’s dump of polls is looking miserable; PA tied, Arizona clearly Trump, three pollsters have Trump up nationally, Trump up in NC, Wisconsin tied, Trump up more than expected in Nevada, possibly winning in Michigan. Trump winning slightly in Georgia. Literally no good news at all. Really depressing. But then bright spots today in Marist polls, so I’m not quite ready to say Trump is a clear favorite.
Here is my most optimistic prediction.
Harris 308 EV
Trump 230 EV
Harris keeps all the blue wall states and picks up IA. She keeps GA (not at all sure about this, but I’m staying optimistic) and picks up NC. She loses AZ and NV.
Optimist reason 1 — Maps showing donor data in a very granular way. Harris is doing really well in the states I think she’ll pick up, in some cases the numbers are comparable to those in blue states (this is why I’m predicting a surprise pickup in IA.).
Those maps reflect an enthusiasm in the Eastern swing states that’s just not there for Trump, in my light blue zip code 80% of the donors gave to Harris. My optimism requires the belief that donors tend to be enthusiastic supporters and that the enthusiasm can be contagious and that friends, family and coworkers can be motivated by an enthusiastic supporter in their midst.
Those maps don’t reflect the same enthusiasm in AZ and NV, which is why I’m putting them in the Trump column.
Optimist reason 2 -Marist October polls which show a double digit Harris advantage among people that have already voted in some of the swing states.
Now some of this might be explained by the conventional wisdom that Dems are more likely to vote early, but - at least in NC - the early voter data for the same period shows percentages of D, R and independent votes that roughly correspond to overall makeup of NC voters.
It’s still going to be a nail-biter and Harris still might lose and I think that, due to her late entry, a lot of less engaged potential voters don’t feel they really know her….this may work against her.
But I also think that the racial justice protests in 2020 caused a lot of independent voters to go Republican and I don’t think the Gaza protests had the same far reaching effect. I am still somewhat concerned about Gaza issues suppressing the youth vote.
I’m choosing to remain optimistic because it’s not going to change the outcome and it’s more pleasant than pessimism.
Apparently the final Anne Seltzer poll of Iowans will be released Saturday (tomorrow) evening. Let’s revisit your prediction then. (Of course I hope you’re right).
No, the second seat will be Montana. That’s the scary one. WV is a lost cause. There is a possibility that an Independent wins in NB. Wanna bet he caucuses with the Dems.
The Votemaster now has Harris at 262, Trump at 250 and 25 (PA & NV) tied. This is a positive change just in the last couple days.
I didn’t realize New Brunswick had joined the union.
Tester has been doing an all-out blitz about Sheehy lying about his combat wound and also wanting to turn Fed lands to the states (and thus private). We’ll see how it goes. We gave him a lot of money…
I predict Colin Allred will beat Ted Cruz, but that Trump will win Texas. I’m not going to make a guess for POTUS.
I predict the ground game will win this for Harris. Team Trump’s GOTV efforts are a shambles, and some of his supporters are definitely less reliable voters. Inclement weather would be favourable for Harris too.
Ann Selzer of Iowa, widely lauded as perhaps the very best state pollster in the entire country, just released her final Iowa poll and had Harris up by three. In Iowa.
AFAICT this pool singlehandedly boosted Harris by 5 points on prediction markets in the last hour.
Selzer hasn’t been off by more than 5 points for an Iowa statewide race in the last 12 years (which is just an incredible track record for polling). For the last two presidential races, she was off by one and two points.
This is almost an earthquake as far as polling goes.
Well, hot diggity dog!