Predictions requested. Not winner or loser but number.
Which would surprise you more: Trump at 47% or higher (higher than he did either last two times he ran, both winning and losing), or Harris over Biden’s 51.3%?
Trump over 47% would surprise me more. I think the possibility of Harris blowing Trump out is always there, while Trump’s numbers are set at a level that makes winning possible but hard.
No way Harris will even be close to %.
I will go on record with Trump 277 EV and and 50.5% of the popular vote and Harris 261 EV and 48% of the popular vote. 1.5% to Stein and other 3rd parties.
This is going to be a disaster.
Trump would win by way more if he got over 50% of the vote.
My expectation is that there will be an increase in votes for DJT in solidly blue states but not enough to flip those states. The loss of Arab American votes in MI will cost Harris the Electoral College and the state. If that trend also happens in states like MN, IL, CA and NY that are more solidly blue it could push his % up without getting him much more in terms of EVs.
Arab votes are not going to Trump though.
Some will apparently.
Given the current polling it would be a little surprising if Trump doesn’t hit 47% percent. The base case is probably something like Harris 50%, Trump 48%.
NYT rolling aggregate for national popular vote is 48. 538 puts it at 49.2. Average error over the last three cycles is 2.5%. (Closest was Clinton off 1.3; next biggest the error favoring Obama by 2.4; then the big Biden error favoring Trump of 3.9)
No error would be surprising.
Let’s go with the higher aggregate and the average error. On that polling basis alone any result between 46.7 and 51.7 shouldn’t be at all surprising. If going with the NYT aggregate then between 45.5 and 50.5 shouldn’t be at all surprising.
Historically however Trump getting over 47 would be surprising. IMHO. He was 46% and change twice and never more. Of course if D turnout sucks this time it is possible. I see no reason to anticipate that.
EC vote: Harris 287, Il Dope 251. Harris wins PA, MI, WI, AZ, and NV. She loses GA and NC. arris wins the popular vote by 4%.
The Senate is 50-50. Dems win 1 of MT or TX.
The House is D-221, R-214.
Not only does Harris lose Florida, she loses it by more than Biden did (3.36%). It might be the only state where Biden gets more support than Harris and even Biden 2024 wasn’t going to be close to taking the state.
I just can’t see Harris losing 37+ EVs from Biden’s total. Does the newcomer crisis play to the Rust Belt? And as for that, that’s old news. Why does she lose Georgia that is deep purple but will swing blue? I don’t think she will pick up Ohio but she could make it close and we might be surprised if the Dems get out and vote. I mean realistically what state did Biden win that Harris will now lose?
The more polls I see, the more discouraged I am getting. It seems that males, especially Black males are deserting her in droves. And if she wins in a squeaker, will Scotus allow it. Feeling very negative. Hope I’m wrong.
I don’t think you realize how many people are extremely angry/upset by the Palestine situation with the Biden/Harris support for the Israeli actions. So instead of voting for a lesser evil; many will simply not vote.
Look at this chart:
It seems clear Trump has momentum.
This is pretty much how I see it. Statistician Carl Allen’s last two general election analyses (October 24, October 12) have convinced me that Kamala Harris is in good shape in the traditional Blue Wall states and has a viable backup path should she lose the shakiest of the Blue Wall states (Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes).
I see Harris winning Nevada reasonably comfortably, in the 2.5 - 3.0% range.
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina I just throw into a hat – should Wisconsin hold, these three shouldn’t be needed. I expect Harris to win one of these, but wouldn’t be at all surprised by her sweeping all three. I would be surprised, on the other hand, if Trump swept these three.
I think the state of the Senate races are collectively chaotic, but remain hopeful that Republicans will end up with 49 seats. I see Tester surprising poll analysts by winning his race in Montana. I see Sherrod Brown holding serve in Ohio, and Angela Alsobrooks staving off Larry Hogan in Maryland. And then (at least) one more “we didn’t see that coming” Democratic** win, with Colin Allred in Texas looking like the best bet over Debbie Murcasel-Powell (FL) and independent Dan Osborn (NE).
** While Osborn is an independent, a win for him would help prevent Republicans from getting that 50th seat.
Maybe I do not. I clicked your link thinking it might contain information on that. It’s just the RCP tracker though?
Do you have any data to offer on how many are planning on not voting for her over this issue, in particular in swing states. Michigan and the Arab vote has been discussed.
FWIW what I can find is that younger voters, the cohort I’d expect to be most upset over Gaza, are enthusiastic to vote for her.
That’d be Muslims I’d imagine.
Trump wins big, popular vote and EC.
He has people thinking he will save America from itself is a good thing. He has the popular media ignoring everything he claims, not confronting him about it, or normalizing it. He’s positive about everything negative.
People forget his claims about making Europe paying their NATO “dues” or whatever he called it and letting Russia “do whatever the Hell they want to do” etc., or they agree with him.
People have been constantly lied to or told half truths and refuse to fact check anything with any depth. States are changing their election protocols so he wins.
I’m disturbed about this country’s future and worried for Europe.
Well current polling predicts 6. So the result you expect would be the unsurprising one.
I’m sticking with my call though. She’ll lose it but by a narrow margin, doing better than Biden had. I base that on my expectation that there is systemic error across the board, turnout for the abortion referendum, and now adding in increased Puerto Rican anti-Trump turnout.
Yes smart money would take the other side of that bet. But I really do think it is a strong chance.
This seems like a positive development.
Gift link:
From the article:
As the presidential contest enters the final sprint, campaign aides and allies close to Vice President Kamala Harris are growing cautiously optimistic about her chances of victory, saying the race is shifting in her favor.
Top Democratic strategists are increasingly hopeful that the campaign’s attempts to cast former President Donald J. Trump as a fascist — paired with an expansive battleground-state operation and strength among female voters still energized by the end of federal abortion rights — will carry Ms. Harris to a narrow triumph. Even some close to Mr. Trump worry that the push to label him a budding dictator who has praised Hitler could move small but potentially meaningful numbers of persuadable voters.