Feeling better and better about my prediction with this Selzer poll. Still mostly feelings based, but my feelings are that Harris is going to have a comfortable win that is called before midnight Tues.
It isn’t just the number of this poll from this pollster by itself, as huge as that is.
It is also the movement from her previous poll, which was already being cited as a canary in the polling mine. It’s a seven point positive shift since that one. It is believable that she is off a few points. But her being off such that the huge shift from moderately surprisingly strong to shockingly strong Harris number is wrong directionally?
Yeah I’m am hopeful that my Trump under 47 Harris over 51 is going to look too conservative. I think it portends for a very solid showing in MI WI and PA anyway. And if reproductive freedoms is the driver, then very close in FL might not be so crazy.
This is great news!
My greatest fear now is voter suppression and intimidation during the election, and vote-counting shenanigans afterwards. Trump will not go down gracefully no matter what; he’s as desperate as a cornered rat, and he controls spineless Republican officials like puppets.
I can’t believe how tense I am about this election. I’m not even American, just worried about the toxic political fallout wafting north over the border. The implications of a Trump victory are almost unthinkable, and will affect us all.
My predicition, as optimistic as can be; VP Harris gets above 300 EV (not specifying on which states but PI is one), Trump dosen’t concede and rambles a few weeks incoherently about stolen election, secrect service is beefed up, Trump has a medical issue between now and Jan 20th which dosen’t allow him to lead his insurrection militia, VP Harris is sworn in as Madam President and America finally evolves. My wishful thinking anyway…
On a seperate note should she win, i will quit drinking alcohol. Should she not, well, I will need a coping mechanisim…
You and me both. I’m reminded of the quote about sharing a bed with an elephant: no matter how pleasant and even-tempered the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt. Harris would care about how the twitches and grunts of the US affect us, while Trump wouldn’t give a hang.
I think Harris has been gaining a lot of ground in the past week, and I hope that her momentum with undecideds can continue. I particularly liked her appearance on SNL tonight; it was fun, and showed her as a real person who can laugh at herself, and who doesn’t need a rally to boost her ego. I would like to see her win, but I am reluctant to predict anything—my predictions weren’t very good at the track today, and I don’t want to jinx her.
You folks might not believe me, but about a month ago, I had a feeling (based on some polling, and on a sense of how Harris attracts or repels certain types of voters) that she would end up losing Pennsylvania, but winning North Carolina, thus winning the EC (barely, because I don’t think she’ll win Georgia or Arizona, either. Nevada, she’ll likely win, I guess – but that doesn’t help or hurt either way.)
The Selzer Iowa poll is good news; I think it makes her winning in Wisconsin and Michigan all the more likely. Pennsylvania will be very, very close – but like I said, I think she’ll end up losing it by a few thousand votes, while winning North Carolina by an only slightly healthier margin (maybe 30,000 votes or so).
(Note that today’s Times/Siena poll release – the last one, obviously – agrees what I’ve been feeling these several weeks).
I’m an idiot. For some reason, I though losing PA (19 EC’s) but winning NC (16 EC’s) would still put Harris over the top.
I was mistaken. If she loses PA and wins NC, she WILL have to also win Nevada (say), to win the EC. Losing Nevada would give Trump 271.
Apologies.
I will make this prediction, then, in the new thread that uses the venerable “270-to-win” website tool.
Three EVs for Harris an two Senators. Not a bad return for a bit of a lobster smell wafting around.
Another Canadian chiming in, same here. It actually annoys me to no end that as someone living in Toronto, I’m way too familiar with the voting dynamics in places like Maricopa County and Dekalb County. And I’m supposed to go on vacation Wednesday after work…I have a bit more confidence that it won’t be a wipeout, but I still dread boarding an airplane and landing in Europe with blazing bad news headlines.
I just noticed that the correct abbreviation is NE.
(hijack)
The original postal abbreviation for Nebraska was, in fact, NB. That was in 1963, when the poastal abbreviations were first issued. They changed it in 1969 at the request of the Canadian Post Office, no doubt because too much New Brunswick mail was going to Nebraska and vice versa.
(/hijack)
My prediction is the Southern surprise:
Harris and Trump win all the non-battleground states as predicted. Harris wins GA (16), NC (16), AZ (11) and WI (10) for a total of 279. Unhappy Arab Americans give MI (15) to Trump and he also eeks out wins in NV (6) and PA (19), for a total of 259.
Popular vote goes 51 - 49 for Harris.
Not even 1% third party? Trump two points higher than ever before?
Bold!
I meant that the Harris Trump vote would be split 51 / 49. I dont know what will happen with third parties, except that it will be small.
Well the 5th of November has dawned (8am AEST) and if it’s the end of the world, so far, frankly it’s going pretty good. Of course, Americans get hold of the day a bit later on so that might change profoundly.
I don’t think it’s going to be close. I accept that it could be.
I think way too many people don’t answer polls, or equivocate on polling questions, or answer how they think the American average would. Then pollsters reweight and massage the numbers so they fit the narrative of too close to call because their business model is busted, their gravy train is kaputski and they have no means to fix it. Methinks the near absence of aberrant poll results through the campaign is indicative.
What happens in the ballot box (at least should be) is between you and your conscience, not what you tell a pollster or telemarketer.
But Harris winning the EC and the popular vote by a couple of points isn’t a good result. If merely 47-48 % of Americans think MAGA and it’s Svengali is the way to enlightenment and prosperity, fine. You can be defined by the company you keep whilst the better angels of your nature are on sabbatical. The rest of us will get on with life and civilisation until the US “I’m their leader, which way did they go?” decides to catch us up.
Harris winning by over 25% (which is of course impossible) is only the semblance of a reasonable result.
If Harris gets north of 290 EVs that will make me happy. Sadly I’m doubting that will happen.
You remind me of the joke meme implying that people in Asia would know the U.S. election results 12 hours sooner than Americans would.
I’d be highly surprised if she falls below 290 EVs.
I will make an entirely feelings based prediction for today – Harris will win, and we will know this before midnight tonight.
No, she would not, and does not. Remember all the tariffs Trump raised? Biden didn’t lower any of them. How things affect Canada is of no concern to Democrats.
Harris would just be far, far less destructive.