peccavi
January 9, 2024, 10:14pm
41
Thought I’d drop this in here for those who haven’t committed a guess (and maybe want to go for the longest shot prediction win).
1/8/2023 Superbowl odds (Fox Sports)
San Francisco 49ers : +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
Baltimore Ravens : +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Buffalo Bills : +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Dallas Cowboys : +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Kansas City Chiefs : +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Philadelphia Eagles : +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Miami Dolphins : +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Detroit Lions : +2100 (bet $10 to win $220 total)
Cleveland Browns : +3100 (bet $10 to win $320 total)
Houston Texans : +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Los Angeles Rams : +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers : +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Green Bay Packers : +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Pittsburgh Steelers : +13000 (bet $10 to win $1,310 total)
I’m surprised that the Eagles are so high up there.
Has nobody seen an Eagles game lately?
peccavi
January 9, 2024, 10:19pm
43
Yeah, I think swapping the Eagles and the Dolphins for the Browns and the Rams would be more in line with the actual odds (versus the betting odds).
It’s gonna be tough to defend my crown, but here’s my stab at it.
Cowboys 33, Bills 27
I’m going to be boring and go with the favorites.
Niners 31, Ravens 20
But I’m rooting for the Lions over the Dolphins.
Bullitt
January 11, 2024, 5:45am
48
Cynthia Frelund on NFL Total Access posted her odds to win Super Bowl LVII:
19.4% — 49ers
I don’t understand the 49ers at #1 . It should be the Ravens. I don’t know how she calculates this, but thought I’d share it here, FWIW.
I think perhaps it’s because the AFC might be considered tougher than the NFC, so it’s somewhat likelier that the Ravens wouldn’t advance to the SB to begin with than the Niners. That’s the only explanation I can think of.
The Ravens have to get past the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, but the Niners have to face only a soft Cowboys or soft Eagles team. I have to like my odds if I’m San Fran.
Kimble
January 11, 2024, 9:20am
50
Ravens 17, 49ers 16
These are the two best teams and they have byes. I’ll try to differentiate my choice from the others by having it be more of a defensive battle, with the Ravens coming out on top thanks to either Justin Tucker heroics or Jake Moody anti-heroics.
Bullitt
January 11, 2024, 10:47am
51
That’s sound reasoning, and if it means the 49ers win the Super Bowl then I like it!
Lots of good reasoning and solid opinions here but I’m going the opposite way and going big on a long shot:
Steelers 15, Packers 9
From the other thread:
Possibly due to a belief that the AFC field is stronger, and that the Ravens thus have a higher likelihood to suffer a pre-Super Bowl upset than the Niners do; note that the teams ranked 3 and 4 on that list are from the AFC.
Yeah, that’s almost certainly what it is.
Not the list of best teams in order but a list of the likelihood of making it through the tournament. That’s going to rely more heavily on the other teams, seeding, etc
Hamlet
January 11, 2024, 4:24pm
54
Bullitt:
Cynthia Frelund on NFL Total Access posted her odds to win Super Bowl LVII:
19.4% — 49ers
I don’t understand the 49ers at #1 . It should be the Ravens. I don’t know how she calculates this, but thought I’d share it here, FWIW.
I’m generally in favor of more analytics in football, but between this and those “win probabilities”, I think they’ve gone a bit far in “making shit up !and calling it stats”.
When you’re getting 3 significant digits on a guess, maybe you’re putting too much stock in your calculations.
Current list. Let me know if I missed anyone or made an error:
AlsoNamedBort: Ravens 28, Cowboys 24Dorjan: Browns 23, Lions 20Chisquirrel: Packers 28, Ravens 22Mean_Mr.Mustard: Lions 28, Ravens 24SuntanLotion: Ravens 35, 49ers 22Munch: Chiefs 24, Rams 18muldoonthief: Bills 27, Lions 17Procrustus: Browns 24, 49ers 17Hamlet: 49ers 30, Chiefs 24Bullitt: Ravens 31, 49ers 17iiandyiiii: Bills 28, 49ers 27opiewan: Lions 35, Chiefs 31Chronos: Browns 5, Lions 2garygnu: 49ers 24, Bills 23Fear_the_Turtle: Ravens 31, Cowboys 24Ulf_the_Unwashed: Bills 35, Packers 24Dr.Winston_OBoogie: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 17peccavi: 49ers 38, Ravens 30notfrommensa: Ravens 30, 49ers 24LoneRhino: 49ers 38, Ravens 35Velocity: 49ers 31, Ravens 23hajario: Dolphins 24, Lions 12Omniscient: 49ers 27, Bills 24borschevsky: 49ers 27, Ravens 24FlikTheBlue: Cowboys 24, Ravens 23dirtball: Ravens 27, 49ers 21Showless: Ravens 24, Lions 14Atamasama: Ravens 20, 49ers 17Telemark: Ravens 30, Cowboys 14Hampshire: Dolphins 33, Packers 21Jasmine: Ravens 24, 49ers 20minlokwat: Ravens 34, 49ers 31zimanne: Ravens 38, 49ers 20Railer13: Cowboys 33, Bills 27TroutMan: 49ers 31, Ravens 20Intergalactic_Gladiator: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24Frosted_Glass: Bills 27, Cowboys 24Kimble: Ravens 17, 49ers 16Great_Antibob: Steelers 15, Packers 9ShadowFacts: Dolphins 34, Lions 28
garygnu
January 11, 2024, 7:40pm
57
My predicted score is off, the 49ers’ should be 34.
Ohh, what the hell. Time to go for the crazy homer pick (oh yeah…guess I need to update my location!)
Steelers 24, 49ers 16
Also…holy crap, 21 years?? My creation is now old enough to drink!
Question for the OP, regarding the tiebreakers. (I’m asking because I’m running a similar pool…)
Tiebreak #5 is: Closest to individual scores
I am assuming that this is calculated by finding the difference between the predicted winners score and the actual winners score, finding the difference between the predicted losers scores and the actual losers score, and adding these two differences together.
For example:
Doper123 and ABCDoper are the only two entrants who predicted the Rams to defeat the Texans.
Doper123 predicted Rams 17, Texans 16.
Actual final score was Rams 27, Texans 16.
Doper123 would have a score of [(27-17) = 10 ] + [(16 - 16) = 0 ], for a score of 10.1 ] + [(24-16) = 8 ], for a score of 9.
ABCDoper would win, correct?
Bullitt
January 12, 2024, 7:28am
60
Yeah it sure stinks like that, don’t it?