538 and the Senate

Just to make sure I’m clear, yes, politicians of all stripes ARE supposed to want all Americans to have decent health care, because it’s a fundamentally Good Thing.

Of course, it’s quite reasonable for them to say, “sure, I’d like all Americans to have decent health care, as long as it doesn’t cost too much, or doesn’t require that we turn all medical professionals into indentured servants, or have some other unreasonable cost or consequence,” but that’s the sort of thing that GOP Senators had plenty of opportunity to provide input about, and passed up the opportunity entirely rather than let themselves be contaminated by association with the very idea of universal health care.

It wasn’t that there were particular problems with the ACA that they pointed out that Obama said, “my way or the highway,” what the non-negotiations over the ACA demonstrated was that they opposed the fundamental idea of universal health care itself, regardless of the details.

On the stimulus, no Republican input was desired. He included some tax cuts and decided that they should support $400 billion in new spending becuase there were also $400 billion in taxes.

On health care, it was modelled after an old Republican plan, yes, but that part of it was never up for negotiation. and Democrats really shouldn’t be faulting Republicans for opposing it anymore given how poorly it’s set up. It is literally designed to fail and will fail if not changed.

On the budget crises, all Obama ever did in meetings with Republicans is talk about what he would not do and lecture them. Then they went to talk to Biden and actually got somewhere. The deal Obama eventually accepted was negotiated by Biden, not the President.

And yeah, only three days later their PollsOnly estimate has jumped to D 71%, the highest it’s been in their entire tracking cycle.

So much for their “Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground” headline.

And 538 has Kander slightly favored over Blunt for the first time.

The Now-cast now has the odds of the Dems taking the Senate at 81.2%, with the most probable outcome a Dem gain of six seats for a total of 52.

Bullshit. On the budget, Obama offered a change in how Social Security benefits are adjusted for inflation, a method called “chained CPI”. In return he asked for closing of tax loopholes. Republicans wouldn’t budge.

That was a public offer that he only made because he knew it would not be accepted. He never broached the issue in private negotiations.

You know what happened in private negotiations, and you know what the president was thinking?

Wow, I’m gonna have to ask for proof on both of those claims.

ETA: And you know what, even if you’re right it only proves my point. I said the Republicans wouldn’t budge, and you say that the offer was only made because Republicans wouldn’t budge. So who’s being obstructionist?

Read The Price of Politics, by Bob Woodward. People that want to make actual deals make offers when there’s a negotiating process going on, not after it’s finished and you want more revenue increases.

The GOP could have jumped at the deal and then Obama would have pulled it away like Lucy with the football. He did the same thing in private negotiations. They had a deal and Obama says, “Okay, now I want more revenue.”

So you admit you’re just making it up.

Are you changing your argument from “Obama didn’t offer any concessions” to “Obama did offer concessions but he didn’t really mean it”?

Yeah, the Dems only cut $100B from the stimulus to get Susan Collins’ vote.

Now what was that about no Republican input???

Exactly what was never up for negotiation? That the plan would actually insure millions of formerly uninsured Americans?

Look, the Republicans have had seven years to present their ‘repeal and replace’, buahaha, alternative. We’re still waiting. If you don’t have an alternative, there’s nothing to negotiate about.

Back in 2011, when the GOP first threatened to shut down the government, Obama** cut billions**, as demanded by the government, for extensions to keep government running while they kept negotiating. He went along with a $4B cut just to keep the government open for 2 more weeks, and an additional $6B cut for another 3 weeks after the first 2 weeks ended. And that doesn’t even include the further cuts he agreed to in the agreement that they reached during that 3-week extension.

IOW, you are wrong.

IOW, he’s deluded.

That would be very nice, thankyouverymuch.

Ross is also ahead of Burr in NC for the first time. Democrats are currently ahead in every one of the ‘close’ senate races. (The next-closest R-leaning races are Rand Paul and Marco Rubio’s races, both with the Republican incumbent at over 70% chance to win.)

You’re right that public offers don’t carry the same weight as private ones. They carry more. They make it harder to, as you say, pull the football away. They’re also an example of transparent government, yet another thing that Obama did and which Republicans criticize him for not doing.

If I recall correctly, there were 161 Republican amendments to the ACA (of the 210 that were proposed). The Public Option was scuttled in an attempt to get Republican votes. So I find it very disingenuous to claim that there was no Republican input.

The public option was scuttled by Senate Democrats.

Correct. A compromise made in order to try and get Republicans on board. Perhaps made in order to get Republican input.

It was no compromise. The Blue Dogs opposed it, full stop. You can’t compromise on what you never had the power to pass.