538 had Hillary with a 71% chance of winning; that’s not a prediction to win.
Especially when it was so close to the election. Usually by then the risk of significant changes of circumstances has evaporated and it’s a “sure thing” for one party or the other.
It’s a terrible line of reasoning in general and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the math.
It’s up there with “it’s just a theory”.
They are reliable enough that they’re usually not extremely off. Sometimes yes, but usually not. Otherwise we wouldn’t do them.
I’m not saying Republicans are doomed, that’s silly. But there are signs they should be worried, and overall Democrats should be less worried. (But not complacent, obviously.)
The reason why we still talk about the Hillary polls is because that was so unusual.
Exactly. Anyone who was certain that Hillary was going to win in 2016 didn’t understand probabilities. I wonder if such persons would have been equally sanguine playing Russian roulette with two bullets in the chambers. 
A judge has just ruled in favor of the constitution! Trump won’t be happy about that.
You’re surely correct.
The Congress had passed a bipartisan housing bill, and a signing ceremony was set for today. It was going to be a win for Republicans heading into the midterms, since it was intended to help reduce housing costs.
Trump - who is pissed off the they aren’t passing his voting bill, where he’s trying to codify into law this illegal federal review of citizenship- simply refused to show up and sign the law.
Instead he yelled at Republicans.
I’m sure his unique style of diplomacy is going to give him the results he wants any day now (They can’t pass the voting bill because they need Democrats to support it, which they don’t)
Here’s a play by play of the whole clusterfuck. MeidasTouch
Clusterfuck indeed. Here’s MSNOW’s reporting on the Republicans “let’s air out our dirty laundry in front of the nation” meeting today.
Just hours before, Trump had refused to sign the bipartisan housing bill until lawmakers somehow pass the partisan SAVE America Act — despite the fact that the legislation lacks 50 Republican votes, let alone the 60 votes needed in the Senate.
According to a source familiar with the conversation, Trump told Thune he needs to be a leader and get the votes for the bill, even if that means effectively ending the filibuster.
Thune has repeatedly noted that he doesn’t have the votes to end the Senate’s 60-vote threshold
Yeah, I’ve worked for bosses like this myself.
“Do the impossible, right now!”
“You don’t know what impossible actually means do you?”
And he’s one of the worst fucking negotiators I’ve ever seen. Bullying and threatening your own political allies isn’t going to get you anywhere when your approval ratings are hovering in the low 30s. He really does think of himself as the King/CEO of the country and he’s treating Congress like they’re middle management. The death spiral continues apace. (Wishful thinking, I know…)
But he’s not wrong precisely. His screeds are enough to heavily weigh the scales against any (R) trying to run for office in a primary, though that doesn’t always carry over to the general.
So, from -his- POV, they’re all mostly there because of him. And his evil, gooey charisma is a lot of what holds together the insane randomness (and hate, never forget hate) that is the current Republican/MAGA “platform”.
Plus, as far as Trump is concerned, rules, law, and the constitution never can or should apply to his decrees. And he’s been given enough cover (by the same members of his party) and SCOTUS to have empirical evidence that he’s correct.
I’d give odds that Thune brings a version of SAVE to a vote again, if only to prove he’s trying to Trump, and then they’ll be able to blame the Democrats and “traitors” in their own party again.
But, yeah, this is a hell of a self-inflicted wound. Hope Democrats seize on it to hound on the downstream Republicans who blindly support Trump’s every whim.
That’s also a bit of bind, come to think of it. There are 6 Republican senators who have announced retirement after their terms are up and 2 others who got primaried.
Between them, they have vanishingly few fucks to give about what Trump wants anymore.
Recall that he’s also blocking his own confirmation of his new Director of National Intelligence.
It’s a masterful demonstration of making yourself look like an idiot.
Now he’s basically shutting down any progress before the midterms until he gets a law passed which he intends to use to manipulate the vote count.
Except he doesn’t have the power to make it happen.
So instead he’s just throwing a temper tantrum.
(Well, when he’s not fantasizing about a ballroom, or a new plane, or fretting about a pool)
Since it’s bipartisan, I imagine that both sides can get a veto-proof supermajority. It’s good for the country, Republicans can save face a little, and Democrats still get to say “fuck you” to Trump.
One could hope.
Hey, the tantrum about not signing the bill got the country to stop talking, for a few days at least, about the reflecting pool fiasco. And Epstein.
In the Spirit of The World Cup, is this an ‘Own Goal’?
A huevo.
(For sure).
For people using the Clinton-Trump polls as evidence that polls are notoriously wrong: most of those polls measured voter preferences, not Electoral College outcomes. Since Clinton won the national popular vote, the national polls were generally not far off. The larger polling errors occurred in several key swing states, which affected the Electoral College result and ultimately the presidency.
So there.
How many times have we seen low poll numbers for the GOP and they still get re-elected? How are the pollsters getting their numbers? Cold calls? Social media data collection? Walmart greeters?
I’ve gotten mailer polls from the GOP with multiple choice answers, but they usually frame the negative-leaning choices as “I am a left-wing anarchist and hate America.” Other surveys micromanage the entire spectrum of viewpoints and are too tedious to take. I’m sure a lot of questions get skipped. The ones who fill out these polls are far outnumbered by the indifferent or the uncontacted.
Without digging too far into it, my surmise would be that it’s all basically the same thing: polls give us a sense of the leanings/current thinking of the voters – the popular vote.
Today’s GOP understands that the popular vote is analogous to a participation trophy.
The Electoral College is the game – winner take all. And you play it very differently.
It’s also why January 6th and the Alternate Slate of Electors scheme weren’t designed to sway popular opinion. They were designed to rig the Electoral College.
But when discussing polls & the midterms, the Electoral College doesn’t matter. The only way to rig those is through good old voter suppression & intimidation.