On the campaign trail, Donald Trump vowed to quickly end the war in Ukraine. He’d do it in “24 hours” after taking the oath, he said, or even before his inauguration.
I think his SecTreas nominee was spouting this line, either in his confirmation hearing or in an NPR interview, I’m not sure which.
If we were the only nation importing from China, we would have a certain amount of strength in the relationship. But China has lots of other potential buyers - EU, BRICS, Asian Tigers, and the Global South. Depending upon the size of the tariffs levied against China, they will make those other countries offerings for Chinese goods more competitive than the U.S. So some of China’s trade will flow elsewhere, and supply-demand in the U.S. will go out of whack - inflation, here we come.
Paul Krugman’s Substack (no paywall) has a posting on China’s surplus. He’s not opposed to tariffs out of hand - in fact, he says that
Tariffs on China are unavoidable unless China makes major policy changes, but the tariffs should be smart and reflect real policy concerns, not a visceral belief that trade deficits mean you’re losing. Also, even given what I’ve said, 60 percent tariffs are wildly excessive. And since China’s trade surplus is a global concern, we should be acting in concert with our allies, not alienating Europe, Canada and Mexico with tariffs on everyone. Among other things, let’s not forget that Trump basically wimped out on China last time after the Chinese retaliated against U.S. farm exports; that would be much less likely to happen if America was working with its allies, not against them.
In other words, by going unilaterally and putting up tariff barriers against our allies as well, the ones who also have an interest in decreasing China’s trade surplus, Trump will make it harder to maintain a united front against Chinese neomercantilism.
Just heard on NPR this afternoon (it was the start of The World, but it might have been the news blip between the programs) that Russian goods made up 0.1% of imports BEFORE the war, and have fallen 90% since the war.
Yes, it was jokingly said since I believe he mentioned he’d have it settled before he took office more often.
Repealing and replacing Obamacare will come in the 24 hours after he achieves peace in Russia/Ukraine. Wait, I think he said that one would take two weeks. Who knew US healthcare was harder than peace in Ukraine?
Finally, about jobs: if and when Trump makes his big tariff proclamation, he will surely claim that tariffs will create millions of jobs. They won’t. In fact, they can’t, because we’re currently more or less at full employment. What tariffs will do is disrupt the economy, causing job gains in some places but large job losses in others. And as I said when writing about China’s trade surplus, disruption itself is a cost; unavoidable in an ever-changing economy, but this disruption would be gratuitous, caused by nothing but Trump’s tariff obsession.
The factories won’t be thrown up in a few minutes’ time, and once they are built, where will those workers to staff the factory come from? And what will happen to those places where those workers are currently employed, when they give those jobs up and become factory workers? And how many economies of scale will that factory have when it’s selling to a smaller market more constrained by trade barriers with other countries? When you’re at full employment, you have to ask these questions, and the interviewer doesn’t go to that point - at least, not in the clip shown.
Vachel Lindsay put it succinctly even earlier (from The Congo, an otherwise cringe-worthy work whose only other positive quality is his typically compelling use of rhythm & rhyme):
Listen to the yell of Leopold’s ghost
Burning in Hell for his hand-maimed host.
Hear how the demons chuckle and yell
Cutting his hands off, down in Hell.
I can personally guarantee you that some of his supporters believe this. I had one MAGA tell me that this is exactly how tariffs work. He was all excited how Trump was going to get China to start paying the US billions again and Biden’s horrible economy would be fixed in one fell swoop.
As Trump’s threats are meaningless in this case, he’s still kissing Putin’s ass. It’s just a way for Trump to get the rubes to think he’s tough on Putin.