Go, Joe!
My first choice was Harris. When she quit, my second choice was Warren. By the time she quit, that left Biden. OK, then, Biden it is.
Others I might have considered ranking if things had gone differently include Booker, Castro, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, or Williamson. But it never got to that.
*The new spots are part of a pattern by the Trump campaign of hitting Biden on issues where the president is also notably vulnerable, from China to his resume, from nepotism to allegations of sexual assault to verbal blunders.
In some cases, the strategy appears aimed at neutralizing weaknesses by muddying the waters. But it risks backfiring by drawing attention to Trump’s equal or larger vulnerabilities. As the coronavirus crisis reshapes the political landscape, the president’s campaign is throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks to his rival, who leads in recent national and battleground state polls…The Trump campaign has gone all-in on a portrayal of Biden, 77, as old and mentally deteriorating. Video clips shared online feature Biden mangling his words or losing his train of thought. Trump tweeted in March, “Sleepy Joe doesn’t know where he is, or what he’s doing. Honestly, I don’t think he even knows what office he’s running for!”
While age is a real vulnerability for Biden, Trump, who is not much younger at 73, would be better-positioned to capitalize if he didn’t have his own history of meandering remarks and verbal blunders, from calling Apple CEO Tim Cook “Tim Apple” to mixing up 9/11 and 7-Eleven to confusing FEMA with the world soccer governing body FIFA.*
The Wisconsin Poll is nice to see, Hillary lost Wisconsin. Ohio is disappointing. Hillary lost it, but I think Biden can win it. Emerson is not Right leaning.
**Race/Topic** _ _ _ _ _ _ **Poll _ _ _ _ _ _ ****Results ** ____ __**Spread**
President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Approve 42, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +10
President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 47, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +4
President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 47, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +4
**Wisconsin**: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 46, Trump 43 Biden +3
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden ______ Emerson ______ Trump 46, Biden 43 Trump +3
Texas: Trump vs. Biden ______ Emerson ______ Trump 47, Biden 41 Trump +6
California: Trump vs. Biden Emerson ______ Biden 59, Trump 29 Biden +30
President Trump Job Approval CNN _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Approve 46, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +5
President Trump Job Approval The Hill/HarrisX Approve 51, Disapprove 49 Approve +2
Trump will win Wisconsin. Just look at last night’s special election. A 5 point loss by Tricia Zunker in an ancestral Democratic district would have inspired confidence, but she lost by 15 points. This a district Obama won twice. These people won’t be coming back to democrats in November.
Wisconsin, btw, is one of only two states where more people voted for Trump than didn’t vote at all. It’s a solid red state now. Or rather, a solid Trump cult state.
Special elections are good for the Republicans - bad from Dems.
Look at CA 25 special election just held yesterday.
Biden needs to start running a national media campaign in order to stand a chance. A lot of people are home all day watching TV. I see Trump campaign ad after Trump campaign ad on TV. Occasionally, I will see an anti-Trump ad, always by a Republican PAC.
I have not seen a single Biden ad ever. Not today, not this week, not this month, not this YEAR. Every now and then I’ll see one online, usually accompanied by an article that mentions that it hasn’t been “funded” and isn’t running on TV.
It maddening. The Democrats are getting stomped in what should be the easiest election ever. The Trump re-election campaign is very well run and funded, to say the least and they are developing strategies based on gaming to reach that half of the country that doesn’t vote. The Democratic indifference is maddening. Their messaging is non-existent. Their entire strategy seems to be “Trump sucks so we can win without doing anything.”
I mean - could you see Obama or Hillary doing nothing during the coronavirus campaign season? The whole world is looking for someone to be the responsible adult in the room, this is a perfect time to show up and demonstrate your leadership. And… almost nothing. An awkward interview on a daytime TV show here or there. This is absolute prime campaigning season and a chance to show your leadership and Biden and the democratic party seem to be sitting this one out. Do they even want to win?
Special elections are hard to read.
I agree that Wisconsin is no longer a reliably blue state, but it’s still within reach, as is Ohio and Iowa. Yes, it’s tougher than it was a decade ago, but I think someone like Biden could win in these states, if and when they really begin to sour on Trump.
It might be better for Biden to keep ads to a minimum for the time being. It’s a sensitive time right now, and he doesn’t want to appear to be politicizing a pandemic. There will be time to politicize the response, particularly if Trump continues to fail - and all signs point to only more failure.
I agree that special elections are bad barometers for future electoral results… in normal times.
The Wisconsin special election and the CA special election, which Dems also lost, were the first elections after the coronavirus pandemic reared its ugly head, and the first chance for people to voice their displeasure with the government. A lot of people are stuck at home, so there’s not much to do besides go vote or at least fill out a mail-in ballot. These were completely winnable races for Dems, as Trump sits atop a ruined economy and objectively has bungled the national coronavirus response.
Democrats are more concerned about COVID, are less likely to risk leaving their houses to go vote, and live in more densely populated areas than Republicans. This all could erase any electoral advantage the Dems might have in November.
Wisconsin voters showed up to take a Supreme Court seat just over a month ago, which was a big victory. Not enough to tilt the court, but enough to send a message.
The district in CA was just taken by a D in 2018, and unfortunately, she gave it right back with a scandal.
“Do they even want to win?” - that’s an excellent question. I’m beginning to think they *are *sitting this one out. Biden is clearly the lowest energy contender in the party and least likely to beat Trump of anyone from the primary round. They probably figure they can’t possibly beat Trump anyway, so why waste a viable future candidate? Biden is taking one for the team while the rest of them regroup and prepare to face Pence in 2024.
I tend to think waiting for a big ad push, at least a big “pro-Biden” ad push, is the right political move. Right now the focus should be on Trump’s ongoing failures. And there are ads now highlighting Trump’s continuing failures and corruption, from third parties that aren’t associated with Biden. The country really isn’t in “general election” mode, and I don’t think it would welcome general election campaign ads. That will come after the conventions, in the fall.
That makes sense to me, too.
Bear in mind that Trump can outspend the Democrats by a huge factor. An April 21 report notes:
Biden’s campaign has to spend wisely, since they can’t afford to spend as freely as Trump can.
It looks like the Moderate Republicans are turning on trump and will vote for Biden.
Powerful ad.
It’s lucky, then, that Trump is providing all the raw material they’ll need for Biden’s campaign ads.
Yeah, he can’t help himself, can he?
I think biding their time – Biden their time? – adwise is the smart move for the Democrats. Right now, they’re giving Chump enough rope to hang himself with, and it looks like it’s working.
His son just accused Biden of being a pedophile. :eek::eek::eek: