A slightly deeper look at some of the election numbers

Politics & Elections
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US Senate moved more toward the Republicans, but looking deeper at the numbers one could say the blue wave hit there as well.

There were 26 Democratic seats up for election and just 9 Republican seats.

The elections in Mississippi (run off) and Florida (recount) haven’t been decided yet, but I’m guessing they both will be Republican. For a GOP 53-47 majority.

If that is true, four seats (Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, and Florida) flipped to the Republicans and two seats to the Democrats. (Nevada and Arizona)

So the Republicans flipped 4 of 26 races or 15.4%. The Democrats flipped 2 of 9 races for 22.2%. In that view the Democrats actually did better.

The Democrats also greatly out polled Republicans in total votes.

Senate 47,773,940 to 34,324,732 (Only 35 states) 58.2% to 41.8% - Probably skewed by two Democrats in the final for Senate in California. The loser, had 3,405,983 votes. Switch that to the GOP and the totals become:
44,367,957 to 37,730,715 or 54% to 46%.

It probably would have been more accurate to subtract the 3,405K total from the Democrats and add back what the third place Republican got in the jungle primary to the Republican total. I couldn’t be bothered to do that.

House 56,284,965 to 49,040,584 (Nationwide) 53.4% to 46.6% - This ignores some 1.8 million “other” votes.

Before the election it was said that the Democrats needed about a 7% margin to just break even in the House. They didn’t quite do that well in total votes but they gained thirty some seats to get to a comfortable majority. There are 7 seats not yet decided. Republicans lead in four and Democrats in three. That would give the Democratic Party a 231 to 204 seat majority.

Senate:
https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2018/results/senate

House:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/htmlview

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Considering that most of the Senate races were in blue states, it makes sense that there would be a lot more total Democratic votes for Senate than Republican votes.

3

Who said that?

4

Here’s another way to look at things. There were 12 senate races in swing states (defined as PVI ± 5).

Maine D+3
New Mexico D+3
Michigan D+1
Minnesota (x2) D+1
Nevada D+1
Virginia D+1
Pennsylvania EVEN
Wisconsin EVEN
Florida R+2
Ohio R+3
Arizona R+5

They went 10 D, 1 I, 1 R.

Probably… the one Republican is Rick Scott in Florida.

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I don’t know about those specific numbers, but: A Big Blue Wave Could Overwhelm The GOP’s Advantage In The House | FiveThirtyEight

IIRC the Democrats needed to pick up 22 seats to win the house, which — looking at the graph — seems about right for a D+7 popular vote margin.

6

Immediately after the election I was depressed about how Tennessee voted - we had credible, popular, well-known, experienced candidates running for both Senate and Governor and neither race was particularly close; even though some polls showed the senate race neck-and-neck leading up to election day. Overall, GOP votes carried the state at about 65% - 35%.

But a closer look at the numbers is actually quite encouraging - compared to 2016, the vote swung in the Democrat’s direction in every single county in the state; and in many states it was a 20% or more swing toward blue, and we managed to flip a couple of state house seats. That tell me that we’re making progress, even here. Here’s the map, from the FB page of one of our candidates:

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By my count, 17 of the 33 states involved cast their electoral votes for Trump.

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According to538’s chat today (Nathaniel Rakich specifically) …

So only 48.6% of races were in blue territory, bur Dems won 68.6% of senate races. Not too shabby.

9

I don’t know. In the text of that article

But I suppose .8% lower could have been the break even point.