A Thread for the Mueller Investigation Results and Outcomes (Part 1)

The BBQ Pit
2301

Actually, a lot of liberals (myself not included) have been wringing their hands that innocent Americans might be subjected to wiretaps that were not reviewed by a judge.

Even setting aside the rest of your post, which he press is busy debunking even in the absence of the Democratic response memo that has the benefit of being derived from the classified matter at hand, is that you are asking people to believe that:

(A) Carter Fucking Page is an innocent party; not in that “everyone is innocent until proven guilty” but in that “Yeah here’s a guy who was just minding his own business until the corrupt government did something out of the blue!” sort of way. In my own opinion, the DOJ could have just taken a bunch of words out of Carter Pages’ own mouth as he said them to the news media and that might be sufficient for a wiretap on its own. And…

(B) that the FBI is suddenly home to a bunch of conspiratorial lefties who, like most SJWs, have an extensive background of busting drug smugglers, terrorists, mafia bosses, and so on, just as their day job; while at night they watch Samantha Bee and love every word of it. And…

(C) that all those judges appointed by GWB who make up the bulk of the FISC were talented, right-thinking, limited government jurists when they were appointed, but turned into Deep State agents over the last decade who are obviously incapable of even asking questions of prosecutors like “So why should I believe this dude?” when reviewing an application for a warrant.

So what we have here is that Trump partisans are jumping to believe a rather undistinguished farmer (Nunes) who happened to be rewarded with a patronage position by being a John Boehner hatchet man, on complex matters of national security and law, instead of the emerging consensus of law enforcement and law experts on both sides of the political fence.

I’m embarrassed for you.

2302

And it is something that can be done without any cooperation of the federal govt.

If New York decides to go after him, there’s not much that Nunes and Ryan can do to block that.

2303

I seriously doubt New York has the power to go after a sitting president.

2304

Him? Probably not. His family and everything he owns, has ever owned, has ever thought about owning, every bank account, all his tax records, etc. they most certainly can touch. And there is fuck-all the Orange Cretin can do about it.

2305

Many of his real estate assets are in New York, and nearly all of them are in some state or another.

2306

I’m likin’ this.

2307

IANAL, but my understanding is that all of his holdings are as S Corporations. Since he has not divested, wouldn’t there be a very muddy legal area where the NY AG going after “Trump Org” would be identical to going after a sitting president?

2308

and then when even that doesn’t work anymore, it will be “so what no big deal”.

2309

It’s already in motion.

2310

Good advice, but difficult to follow. Instinct demands some response, even when the brain says NO.

2311

Me too.

2312

In practicality, sure. Legally, I don’t think so. Corporations are legal entities, and the Supremes reinforced that with Citizens United. The New York AG wouldn’t be interested in the President in the least. He would be going after legally incorporated entities doing business in the State of New York. Big difference.

2313

RickJay, I hope and believe you are wrong, though your points are well made.

Here’s why:

People eventually tumbled to the frauds of Trump University, Trump Steaks, Trump Wine and on and on.

Trump’s Pied Piper routine does wear off, sooner or later. And when it does, his victims hate him for having misled them. This pattern has played out again and again over his career, as predictably as anyone paying attention could rely on the fact of his racism based on his birtherism. I mean, how did anyone not see that coming?

Right now, it looks like he’s gaining popularity every day, but consider all the effort bent and credibility sacrificed toward rallying his base over the memo. He garnered a roughly a 1% bounce upward in popularity for all that kerfuffle. And even now, public opinion still believes that Trump “colluded” with Russia and a significant majority want Trump to testify under oath before Mueller.

Watch how far and fast his already-historically-low popularity and support drop when indictments, arrests and plea agreements start falling like spring rain in the, uh, spring. (With luck, a little sooner.)

I disagree that once Mueller is fired, it’s over. Mueller has wisely disbursed his investigation throughout various states with jurisdiction. States of New York, New Jersey, Florida and who knows which others will carry on. All the information gleaned by the Mueller investigation will find its way into public view.

It’s true Mueller may not be able to prosecute Trump himself just yet. Don’t you wonder what he might do if precious Ivanka were threatened with prison, though? Maybe… step aside as president and enter a plea agreement, if one is offered? If not, he can just watch her suffer while he’s presidentin’. And Don Jr. And Eric. And Jared. Who will raise the grandchildren?

Or maybe Mueller’s team – and I include the state jurisdictions in this – will just play with Trump’s family members in the state court jurisdictions until Trump’s term ends, allowing the bad publicity to mount and mount in advance of the 2020 presidential race, ruining the chances of Senate Republicans for reelection and bringing ever more pressure on Republicans in Congress to do the right thing.

Another thing to keep in mind is just how personal all this is for Mueller. The man rebuilt the FBI into a renewed, proud organization in his 12 years as FBI Director after 9/11. Do you think he’s going to let it all be undone, along with everything else to which he has dedicated his life and career without a major fight? There’s not an FBI agent who isn’t behind him, 100%. And it’s not because they’re all Democrats.

The best Trumpian minds gave us the Nunes memo, something Paul Ryan has contemplated since at least last October. Carter Page himself let that tidbit slip in an interview with Chris Hayes on MSNBC. Among Trump’s “advisors” on the memo were the mouth-breathing dynamic duo of Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows.

If the bet is on Mueller or the Trump Troglodytes, I know which side I’m going with.

Dems will take the House in 2018, Republicans know this. When they do, the pace of the investigations will step up. There are still enough Senate Republicans with the decency and/or fear to be induced to do what is right in the end, when faced with immense public pressure driven by the enormity of the crimes. If Dems take the Senate by even one vote, they’ll be able to impeach.

When the dominoes fall, they fall fast. Remember how George W. Bush’s popularity plummeted after Hurricane Katrina. Once Trump’s supporters finally realize how they’d been duped, public outrage will demand action by their Senators. Even the Republican ones.

2314

Not for me. I have no problem cutting trolls dead. I wish others could follow suit. Without an audience, they’d soon disappear and page after page of pointless blather would be eliminated.

Anyhoo, I don’t call the compulsion to respond “instinct.” I call it taking the bait and giving the troll the satisfaction of knowing he yanked your chain and overrode your self-control. Wouldn’t it give *you *satisfaction to know that you frustrated his attempt to manipulate you? The back and forth with trolls doesn’t further the discussion–it’s just a baiting game for them. Let your brain chew on that idea for a while.

Having said that, I’ll add that you’re one of my faves, SteveG1.

2315

It is difficult, when someone is claiming to have shown holes in an argument that is actually perfectly sound, not to debunk their attack and defend the argument.

It is a bit hard to “let it go”, when there is someone who is not just wrong on the internet, but is wrong in saying that you (or one of your ideological allies) are wrong on the internet.

For a round or so of it, it is actually beneficial, even if the person is just trolling, in that it does get you to shape up the argument a bit, it gets multiple people to provide different perspectives, and in the end, there is productive* discussion that is generated. Sometimes after the nth round, I see a new perspective that gives me a better insight into the concept being discussed.

Yeah, but, after a point, it is no longer a productive conversation, and it is just beating your head against a wall that laughs at your attempts, which is frustrating. The difficulty lies in determining where that point is.
*as productive as any conversation on a messageboard can be, anyway.

2316

Grrr. This morning at synagogue, I over heard a friend of the family’s- one of my dad’s pals, the Old Guys Who Talk During Services Brigade- going, “…turns out the FBI was trying to get Hillary elected.” I walked up yo him and pointed out that this was stupid and that if anything, the FBI threw the election in the other direction. And he smiles at me, and says, “You’re saying that it’s crazy if I say Hillary did it, but if Trump did it, it’s credible?” (Yes). I started incoherently spluttering about how we were there reading the papers when Comey made his announcement, but I’m pretty bad at debate- there’s a reason I’ve never brought up my unpopular opinions on the Dope- and I ended up stomping off fuming. I’m still mad.

2317

That guy had the advantage of memorized talking points to spout; you had the disadvantage of thinking for yourself.

Those memorizing talking points, of course, have no idea that The Memo is so ridiculously inadequate a pretext for unjustifiable action–the action Trump will take. But thinking people have noticed how thin it is. A small sampling of what’s out there:

Tweets About #YoMemoJokes Are Picking Apart The Nunes Memo In A Hilarious Way

…Remember, the ‘spouting memorized talking points’ Americans are in the minority.

2318

Given the jurisdictional requirements, it would be difficult for various states other than New York or perhaps Virginia to go after Trump associates. Mueller’s coordination with the New York State AG seemed more of a hedge in case Trump tried to pardon anyone for federal crimes such as Manafort to prevent them from flipping. I doubt state prosecutors would have enough to show state crimes for any campaign related actions given that the crimes would have to have been committed in that given state, which doesn’t apply to federal courts.

As far as the investigation, if Mueller is indeed seeking to interview Trump himself anytime soon, that’s a good indication that the investigation is preparing for the closing stages. Federal prosecutors and law enforcement like to interview a target of a complex investigation as a last step once they have dug deep into all the facts they can to confront the target(s) with a variety of questions that indicate they already know what they’re talking about, if not know the answers themselves.

2319

In theory, they can.

In reality, the Republicans aren’t going to play by the rules. They will make up their own rules. New York is a state, one of 50. Small potatoes. Unimportant.

2320

At first it is, but after you do it a few times and see how GOOD it feels, it becomes very easy.

I think a lot of the discussions here can be quite productive. I’m delighted at how articulate and well-informed many Dopers are. I learn a lot here. Sometimes the exchanges border on the brilliant. And funny, too. I’ve burst out laughing and scared my dog on quite a few occasions.