In the *Atlantic *online today (not news to anyone here):
Robert Mueller’s First Charges
I’m proposing that we locate most of the Mueller discussion here instead of posting simultaneous, ninja’d comments in the several other threads where they would certainly fit. (Subject to Dopers going along with the idea, of course.) I stuck it in the Pit so that no one has to hold back on inflammatory language.
This shit show sure is going to be an entertaining circus. If only the main clown didn’t have his finger on the button.
I believe the 2 most likely candidates I’ve heard so far are Manafort and Flynn. Any others that anyone wants to throw in the ring?
And the tangerine turd, no doubt, has a stack of pardons ready to be signed in the event it’s one of his supporters.
Cheeto can’t pardon state crimes. Word is Mueller has been working closely with Schneiderman in New York, especially re: Manafort.
Also interesting to note: A pardon removes jeopardy of conviction for a crime, which also means the pardonee can no longer refuse to testify about his knowledge of the crime(s) covered in other proceedings under the Fifth Amendment. IOW, Trump pardoning a Flynn, Manafort or Page might actually end up creating a powerful witness against a Kushner or Donny Jr.
War with North Korea just got a lot more likely. Trump knows the rule of law is after him, so he will use whatever power he has at his disposal to reverse the advantage. He will attempt (and may succeed at) the establishment of a Security State. War and national emergencies almost always result in an increase in executive power and a loss of civil liberties. And this Congress will not oppose him in doing so. Trump needs an emergency, a rason d’etre: North Korea might be it.
I’m guessing that the first indictment will be a second or third level player whose name we may not even be familiar with. This person will then be offered immunity for testimony against Manafort et al.
The more I ruminate on it, the more I think it might be Flynn Jr. Close second is Manafort, because Mueller already told him the indictment was coming. Or maybe Manafort Jr.?
Some have speculated it might be someone more minor to the investigation, but I have a feeling Mueller doesn’t roll like that. Depends on whether the leak came from Mueller’s team or somewhere else. If not deliberately from his team, then I suppose it could be a minor player – and Mueller won’t be happy at all that it leaked.
But then, based on the hysteria coming from the Faux crowd, it could still be a bigger fish.
Also, I expect that Sessions’ DoJ will prosecute Hillary Clinton (and possibly Barack Obama) for…something. I’m not kidding.
Absolutely correct as to federal crimes.
But if the testimony would place the witness in criminal jeopardy for state crimes, then he may still assert a Fifth Amendment privilege.
Based on everything in the public record thus far, he’s got no real way to do that.
Although . . .
. . . I’ll direct your attention to earlier conversations on this board, in which several commentators asserted confidently that any time a foreign citizen contributed valuable information to a campaign, this was illegal.
You may remember that I disagreed, saying such a reading of the statute was violative f the First Amendment.
Now I am hearing reports that the “dossier” was prepared by a foreign citizen and used by the Clinton campaign against Trump.
I still say that such a use, if it indeed happened, would be perfectly legal and protected by the First Amendment.
Does anyone who felt it was illegal wish to revisit their analysis?
I don’t believe I’ve ever made that assertion, but I do think that before you set anyone an exercise here, it’s incumbent on you to show evidence that the Clinton campaign used any part of the dossier against Trump. To my best understanding, there is zero evidence of that.
Expectations? First guy on stand says, “I did it. Donny didn’t. It’s all my fault.” Pardon issued, case closed, guy on stand is last seen wheeling a Trump-brand wheelbarrow filled with cash.
The dumbest and richest con man won the POTUS election. How am I supposed to expect an outcome of justice?
I don’t think you have a very sophisticated understanding of how these kinds of investigations work.
Friedo, you’ve got a boat ride to take. I won’t be joining. 
Then enlighten me, please. I bet one doper dollar that this investigation leads anywhere but to Dopey Don’s impeachment.
You assume Trump would actually pay someone.
He’ll say that the wheelbarrow is worth 100 million and he’ll sue for that.
I don’t know whether it will lead to Trump’s impeachment or not and wouldn’t care to hazard a guess. Your post seems to imply that you think there is a single “it” that one person could confess to in order to stop the whole thing in its tracks. That’s not how it works. Multiple people are being investigated for a wide range of possible crimes. Low-Level Flunky Number 42 going “I did it” in exchange for a pardon and a pile of rubles does not cause the whole machinery of the investigation to come screeching to a halt.
Maybe, but would filing the formal indictment be necessary? Wouldn’t Mueller, et al., just say, “We have an indictment queued up. We can enter it, or you can take immunity in exchange for testimony.”
Obviously this stuff is all way outside my area of expertise.