A Thread for the Mueller Investigation Results and Outcomes (Part 1)

[Ludovic]

What name did Hillary run her child sex ring under?

[ThelmaLou]

Trump and his allies are laying the groundwork for a Saturday Night Massacre

Let’s be clear on what’s happening in our politics right now. President Trump and his media allies are currently creating a vast, multi-tentacled, largely-fictional alternate media reality that casts large swaths of our government as irredeemably corrupt — with the explicitly declared purpose of laying the rationale for Trump to pardon his close associates or shut down the Russia probe, should he deem either necessary.

We often hear that Trump and his allies are trying to “distract” from special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s intensifying investigation. That’s true, but this characterization inadequately casts this in terms ordinarily applied to conventional politics. Instead, Trump’s trafficking in this stuff should be seen as another sign of his fundamental unfitness to serve as president. Similar efforts by his media allies should be labeled as a deliberate effort to goad Trump into sliding into full-blown authoritarianism, and to provide the air cover for him if he does do so…

Note this:

…Indeed, it’s important to reckon with the scope of what Trump and his allies are alleging. The[ir] idea is that Mueller — who was originally appointed to head the FBI by George W. Bush, and who became special counsel because of Trump’s own firing of his FBI director over the Russia probe — originally participated in a hallucinatory conspiracy to cover up Clinton collusion with Russia. Now Mueller is using the current investigation to distract from it. In this alternate universe, all of that is the crisis (Hannity’s word) we face, and the only way to address it is for Trump to close all of it down…

…But as Brian Beutler says, the mere fact that congressional Republicans are not flashing a bright warning sign itself suggests that we cannot count on any procedural response meeting it, if it does come to that. …

IOW this time there’s no Barry Goldwater to truck it over to the White House and tell the President the jig is up.*

*In 1974, as an elder statesman of the party, Goldwater successfully urged President Richard Nixon to resign when evidence of a cover-up in the Watergate scandal became overwhelming and impeachment was imminent. (Wikipedia)

[asahi]

@ThelmaLou

Trump and his allies are laying the groundwork for a Saturday Night Massacre

Note this:

IOW this time there’s no Barry Goldwater to truck it over to the White House and tell the President the jig is up.*

*In 1974, as an elder statesman of the party, Goldwater successfully urged President Richard Nixon to resign when evidence of a cover-up in the Watergate scandal became overwhelming and impeachment was imminent. (Wikipedia)

In 1974, the opposition party controlled congress and the investigations against him. The media was centralized and was a successful check against governmental power. The public was generally more supportive of the rule of law, evidence, fact-based reality.

Now?

A corrupt majority party is determined to secure its grip on power and the last thing it wants is to lose its corrupt party leader. The media are decentralized to the point that we have right wing propaganda bullhorns that are just as influential as mainstream media. The public has lost faith in institutions and support for authoritarianism is at levels we haven’t seen since the 1930s. And now we live in an age of vaxxers, flat-earthers, global warming deniers, and other conspiracy theories. There are millions of people who see Mueller as an agent of a corrupt bureaucratic deep state and would have no problem if the investigation were just shut down. Probably another third of the country who are largely apolitical, believe ‘both sides do it’, and just don’t really care one way or the other because they don’t yet understand the connections between the GOP’s behavior and the potential end of American democracy as we know it. The people who really care are progressives, but progressives are probably substantially outnumbered by the fascists, the apathetic, and the confused.

The only debate in the GOP right now is over the best way to declare victory. Some will assert that it’s best to let the investigation continue for a while, let scandal fatigue set in, counter-attack with narratives with Clinton, Obama, Democrats, and the Deep State as being just as, or almost as guilty as Republicans in any conspiracy or collusion. Others like Bannon want to go full-on Putin and just shut it down and use blunt force to intimidate opponents into silence. Time will tell which strategy is regarded as the best one for their purposes. But I don’t think anyone in the party has an interest in seeing this to the end.

[Steve_MB]

MAGA = Many Are Getting Arrested

[RickJay]

@Left_Hand_of_Dorkness

1. There’s no way, in a–what did FP call it, an open management style campaign or something?–in a clusterfuck like Trump’s campaign, that Pence wouldn’t hear about the shenanigans going on. He’s gonna go down with the others.

Merely hearing about the shenanigans would make it exceptionally difficult to pin anything on Pence unless he committed a crime lying to the FBI or under oath and you have a good chance of proving it.

Like it or not, asahi is probably right. It is very unlikely this will end in Trump’s downfall. He can start handing out pardons if need be, and the Republicans will not impeach him for any reason.

[Ike_Witt]

@elucidator

Trump isn’t guilty of collusion, if only because Putin would never trust such a blustering blabbermouth. For once, he’s telling the truth! And he doesn’t care who else is guilty, so long as its not him. But his money? And the truth about his money?

You know I was just pondering, would now be a good time for the press to start hounding Trump about releasing his tax returns?

[iiandyiiii]

I don’t think much can really be predicted reasonably at this time. Trump’s behavior is inherently chaotic and unpredictable, and what Mueller will find/is finding is also unknown. The Republicans in Congress can reasonably be predicted to protect Trump unless the anger at him is utterly overwhelming (maybe an approval rating of under 25% or so, sustained, with more than a third of Republicans among voters opposing Trump).

Further, the Democrats might regain the House (and there’s a sliver of a chance at the Senate).

[BobLibDem]

@RickJay

Like it or not, asahi is probably right. It is very unlikely this will end in Trump’s downfall. He can start handing out pardons if need be, and the Republicans will not impeach him for any reason.

I disagree. I think Mueller is going to indict Donald himself. When the seriousness of the charges is revealed, McConnell and Ryan are going to go to the White House and tell him the jig is up. They may fear his base, but let’s face it that base isn’t going to start embracing Democrats. They’ll piss and moan and whine about it, but in 2020 they’ll believe that the Democratic nominee is the spawn of Satan just like they always do and they’ll vote Republican, just like they always do. So the GOP leaders will rise to the occasion and lance the boil.

[ElvisL1ves]

@BobLibDem

I disagree. I think Mueller is going to indict Donald himself. When the seriousness of the charges is revealed, McConnell and Ryan are going to go to the White House and tell him the jig is up.

I think so too, but the notification will come via Fox talking heads he respects, not via party leaders he does not.

I wonder which one will be the first to say “You’re fired!” ?

[JackieLikesVariety]

@OttoDaFe

One thing that struck me about what I’ve seen of the material released is the painstaking way in which Mueller’s staff have documented Gates and Manafort’s financial shenanigans — particularly the latter’s — and their rationale for considering them a flight risk (including their curiously variable net worth). One way I interpret this is as a warning shot across Il Douche’s bow: “You’re not dealing with mail-order ambulance-chasers who share office space with a laundromat in Trenton: we’re professionals, and you’re in for the fight of your miserable life, you Cheeto-faced shitgibbon!”

I have hope again and I WILL get a It’s Mueller Time T shirt

[asahi]

@BobLibDem

I disagree. I think Mueller is going to indict Donald himself. When the seriousness of the charges is revealed, McConnell and Ryan are going to go to the White House and tell him the jig is up. They may fear his base, but let’s face it that base isn’t going to start embracing Democrats. They’ll piss and moan and whine about it, but in 2020 they’ll believe that the Democratic nominee is the spawn of Satan just like they always do and they’ll vote Republican, just like they always do. So the GOP leaders will rise to the occasion and lance the boil.

If the Democrats can crush the Republicans in 2018, then you might be onto something – that could still happen. But it’s not looking too good at the moment. Roy Moore is kicking Doug Jones’ ass all over Alabama, and the Virginia race is tightening - at a time when people ought to know better, right? It’s just more of the same. People should have known after GW Bush’s first term how bad republicans are for the country, and yet we keep getting pushed further and further to the right. Meanwhile the Democrats are listless and still trying to find an identity. The big-time donors they’ve counted on in the past aren’t giving out as much as the party had hoped and don’t seem to be bullish on the Dems, especially when the party is increasingly getting flanked by a Democratic Socialist. The real story isn’t just the rise of the extreme right but the demise of centrist politics, and the Left is just as guilty in some respects as the right. Granted, I think the Left has its heart in the right place more so than the right, but there’s a contingent that is increasingly uncompromising and that is going to make it hard to mount a united opposition. The thirst for political purity from the left couldn’t have come at a worse time. Worse, I really, honestly don’t think that Democrats know how to win local elections on a large scale.

[Fiveyearlurker]

Papadopoulus discussed having Trump meet with Putin. With Trump.

[ShadowFacts]

@BobLibDem

So the GOP leaders will rise to the occasion…

While I wish there were a ghost of a chance of this happening, I believe this is spectacularly naive, and hearkens back to a time when a substantial number of GOP politicians had a shred of decency and concern for this country. That time is LONG gone.

[asahi]

@Fiveyearlurker

Papadopoulus discussed having Trump meet with Putin. With Trump.

So what? I’m not sure what’s necessarily wrong about a meeting with a foreign president, assuming things work out that is.

[Fiveyearlurker]

@asahi

So what? I’m not sure what’s necessarily wrong about a meeting with a foreign president, assuming things work out that is.

If your campaign is actively colluding with them at the time, and you are trying to pretend you have no idea?

Also, the article mentions that Sessions rejected the idea. Sessions who also had no idea.

[ElvisL1ves]

@Fiveyearlurker

Papadopoulus discussed having Trump meet with Putin. With Trump.

The meeting didn’t happen, though. I don’t think that fact is worth much.

[RickJay]

@BobLibDem

I disagree. I think Mueller is going to indict Donald himself. When the seriousness of the charges is revealed, McConnell and Ryan are going to go to the White House and tell him the jig is up.

I really wish this would happen too, but I’m sorry, you are lost in total fantasy.

1. It is not even clear that what you are describing is a thing that can happen. Whether or not the President can be indicted prior to the impeachment process is an open debate, though most legal minds say he cannot. It’s not the universal opinion, but it’s the majority opinion and almost certainly how the Supreme Court would rule if it came to that. I do not get the sense that Robert Mueller wants to start a Constitutional crisis, which is certainly what that would create. You’d have a literal standoff between the FBI and the Secret Service, and then legal wrangling all the way to the SCOTUS.

2. If there is any hint Mueller planned to commence such a thing, and as careful as he is that would be a hard card to hide up a sleeve, Trump will fire him.

3. There is no indication whatsoever that the Republicans want rid of Trump. None. Aside from people who’re quitting, absolutely every solid indication is that Trump has the support of the Republicans and they plan on keeping him in power no matter what. Such few anti-Trump Republicans as there are are marginalized or being pushed out, while Trumpists are riding high.

Never mind “approval ratings.” For one thing, the only poll that matters is the one they hold every second November. For another, as has been pointed out, at the special election polls, Trumpists win.

[running_coach]

@ElvisL1ves

The meeting didn’t happen, though. I don’t think that fact is worth much.

How do you know?

[ElvisL1ves]

The link says so.

[BobLibDem]

I think a sitting president can be indicted.

“It is proper, constitutional, and legal for a federal grand jury to indict a sitting president for serious criminal acts that are not part of, and are contrary to, the president’s official duties,” the Starr office memo concludes. “In this country, no one, even President Clinton, is above the law.”…
In 1974, the Watergate special counsel, Leon Jaworski, had also received a memo from his staff saying he could indict the president, in that instance Richard M. Nixon, while he was in office, and later made that case in a court brief.

Mueller is fully aware of the significance of indicting a sitting president. But he also is fully aware of the extent and seriousness of the crimes committed. He has spent his life trying to enforce the law, and I find it inconceivable that if the investigation shows that Donald is guilty of crimes, then he will not hesitate to prosecute.

The Bannon wing of the GOP has been doing a victory dance prematurely. Sure, they’ll prevail in Alabama. They only have three classes of candidates there- far right, much righter, and batshit crazy extremist right. In private, Republicans are getting sick of this administration and I bet many would welcome its removal.