So stealing this.
Except Mueller has been working with NY state grand juries and prosecutors as well. He has been actively pursuing state level charges.
Bricker, I’ve not been following this closely, but my impression was that the current allegation is that the Clinton campaign paid the foreigners (i.e, the Brit ex-MI6 guy) to prepare the “Dossier”.
If so, that wouldn’t even raise the contribution issue, would it? It’s not a contribution if you’re hired to do a service for a political campaign.
But that’s different from the allegation about the Russians offering dirt on Clinton to Donnie Jr in Trump Tower, isn’t it? The allegation is that they contacted Donnie to give the Trump campaign the dirt.
If that’s true, that raises the foreign contribution rule in a different way than the allegation of Americans paying foreigners to do oppo research, doesn’t it?
Sure, I suppose that’s an argument. I guess it would require determining the fair market value of the publicity the dossier gained for the campaign and then ensuring that the payment was on a general par with that value, though – wouldn’t it?
I am thinking it could be donald trump jr.
Maanfort is high on the list, but people seem to be forgetting Kushner. I think JK is very vulnerable.
You lock him up, then who’s going to reinvent government, bring peace to the middle east, and solve the opioid crisis? The guy’s irreplaceable.
I think Mueller is going to work his way around the circle, starting at the periphery and slowly working his way in. JK is way too close to the center to be the first one brought in.
We’re all speculating at this point, so I won’t argue with you. You could very well be right.
Question: Are we waiting for Monday to find out what the indictments are? If so, what is so magical about Monday? Why couldn’t this be released on Friday?
In thinking about it more, I’m guessing it will be either Manafort, or someone even lower on the ladder that we’ve likely never heard of. It’s been pointed out that Manafort is actually a fairly large fish. If Mueller is operating on the “little fish first” method, then Manafort would come later.
Mueller’s not going to touch Kushner now - absolutely not. If he does that, the investigation ends. It’ll probably be Manafort for conduct that predated the campaign. This would be a legit prosecution and might give Trump a false sense of security - he can also pardon him if he wants and wouldn’t be surprised if he did. I am beginning to doubt that Mueller will see the end of the investigation. Mueller will go one direction; Sessions will go another. More than ever, it’s clear that there is a low-grade civil war brewing between the parties. Republicans will defend their guy to the end.
That would be an odd way of doing it.
The determination of whether something is an arms-length commercial transaction does not ordinarily require that the value to the buyer equal the price. If it did, almost nothing would meet that test, since most people try to get something that is worth more than what they paid for it.
To use that test in the context of valuing publicity would be even more bizarre, since it is largely unforeseeable and worth nothing to the seller.
That’s not just “an argument,” that’s the fundamental difference. If you pay me to do work for you, I’m not giving you a gift. If I do work for you for free, then I’m giving you a gift. Completely different situation.
As for the value, why would the payment be dependent on the value of publicity? I would think an investigator would get paid based on hours spent on the task.
Why does it end?
Because Trump and his supporters in congress will end it.
Why?
Fiveyearlurker said it earlier but I’ll say it again…
Felix Sater.
- He is up to so much shady shit that it’s just not too hard to find a crime when you look closely at his activities.
- He has a history of helping out the feds to avoid prosecution.
- A couple of months ago he was telling people that he was probably going to jail over Trump/Russia stuff.
Because Trump fires Mueller at that point? Publicly bewailing assaults on his family. I mean, attacking somebody’s family, have they no decency! It’ll sell.
More and more, I think it will be someone big enough and close enough to the facts to rattle Trump, but not someone fundamental to the investigation. So not Kushner, not Ivanka, not Flynn Sr., not Roger Stone, not Carter Page, not Mike Pence, not Michael Cohen, not Felix Sater.
I do think Mueller is hoping to provoke a response, learn Trump’s “strategy,” if Trump will actually fire him and if he does, what the Congressional response will be. If the leak did originate from Mueller’s office, then I think it was strategic to leak it on the eve of another golf weekend in Virginia and gauge how bad it spooked Trump. (Happy Halloween!) As noted in other threads, considerably, it would appear. (“DO SOMETHING!”)
Donald Jr. is a good guess as offered by purplehearingaid, but was Jr. in fact formally affiliated with the Trump campaign? His role in organizing the Veselnitskaya meeting was pivotal, but he’s not the only person who could provide testimony about it. Still he might be exactly the sacrificial lamb Mueller wants if he was in fact a member of the campaign. Mueller will keep politics out of it – but he will also be very strategic.
I don’t think the investigation ends even if Trump fires Mueller. First, Trump can’t fire Mueller. He has to find someone to do it. I don’t think Rosenstein will do it. Trump can fire Rosenstein, but it’s another obstruction charge if he does. If he goes down the chain a la Bork, sure, he’ll find someone to fire Mueller. But every Congressperson I’ve heard speak on the issue – including every Republican – has indicated that impeachment proceedings would begin tout suite if that happens. Alternatively, Congress could simply reauthorize Mueller under new, fire-proof authority.
I don’t believe Congress is entirely in the bag for Trump. I remember the numbers from their vote on sanctions against Russia: Practically unanimous. They are all very aware of Russian interference in our election. A lot of them would be happier with a President Pence or President Ryan when all is said and done. They just don’t want to be the ones to instigate impeachment. (Cowards.)
And then let the prosecutions unfold. If Trump supporters are going to rise up, let them. It’s going to happen sooner or later if it’s going to happen at all. Let’s get on with it.
On Predictit, on the question, “Will a federal criminal charge be filed against Roger Stone in 2017”, the “Yes” position went up 32 cents today. Not sure how much stock to put in that.
Admittedly, I’m not an expert on witness flipping, but wouldn’t bringing in more than one person at the same time encourage cooperation? Best deal goes to the first to talk?