Full disclosure: I took a reasonably chunky position in gold a week or so before the Brexit vote as a hedge. It worked out a bit too well.
I almost did again before the Trump/Clinton election, but decided that it was simply too unlikely of an outcome (Trump winning) to need to hedge against.
Just a quick comment to say that I have long been impressed with the political discussion here. Having that discussion built on the foundation of a fact-minded message board with good moderation seems to keep the discussion somewhat grounded.
I’ll go back to lurking for another 14 years. See you in 2032, vote Kodos!
Hope and Kang, 2020!
The big question is what do the English bookies think?
Manafort faces nine counts with maximum 30 years of prison each, and nine counts with maximum of 5 years or less each. Right?
I’ll bet he is Acquitted or Hung-juried on all nine of the bigger charges. Make America Great Again. Who’s making book here?
Will Mueller seek a re-trial on the hung charges?
I’ll take that action. Whatcha offering?
My offer: If you’re right, and those nine charges end up with acquittals or hung, I will add to my sig (and make visible for at least a year) the following (or an approximation thereof):
“I bet against septimus on the fundamental sense and sanity of an American jury and deservedly lost.”
.
Uh oh. Am I going to have to put my [del]money[/del] .sig where my mouth is?
The following is subject to the caveat below.
And I’ve always been a haggler. Can we agree that you need 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 convictions on the 30-year charges to win; I win with 0 or 1; and 2,3,4 are draws?
If so, and there are 5 convictions or more, I’ll make my .sig read.
andros had more faith in an American jury than I had; and he was right. I’m happy to lose a bet and hope this trend continues.
Caveat: I've not done my homework.
What if anything is known about the jury selection? Was Mueller somehow able to exclude jurors who appeared to be likely Trump supporters?Sure, works for me.
Not much is known. Mostly white; a bunch were knocked out based on initial questionnaire; defense had 12 strikes, prosecution had 8, and I think each side used them all. Ellis questioned the remaining pool about their connections to the justice department and their ability to be objective/impartial, and then enpaneled 12+4.
And that’s all I know.
Trump just opined that the Manafort trial is “a very sad day for the country”.
He didn’t elaborate as to exactly what is so sad about throwing the book at some shyster tax fraud.
OK. [septimus shakes hands with andros].
(I think I’d feel less apprehensive about this if we’d just gone with $20.)
This is a test. (Posting with the Sultanbug option.)
Andros, do you use Sultanthemes or v3.7.3 ? I think Sultan will display my .sig by default, but I refuse to use it – it’s far too bug-ridden and hideous.
With the v3.7.3 I’ll need to remember to click Show Signature each post – I’m quite afraid I will often forget. 
ETA: Or is there an option I don’t know to make Show signature default even with v3.7.3 ?
Looks like no verdict in the Manafort trial till next week.
As a complete hypothetical, and not even as speculation, who exactly would get into any sort of trouble should the jury be tampered with, by Russians living in Russia?
Judge Ellis announced that he has been getting death threats and has a marshal for protection, and therefore doesn’t want to release the names and addresses of the jurors for fears they will get death threats, too.
Death threats from who? Russians? The Right? The Left?
The Mafia?
In this clusterfuck almost all the players could be the bad guy. I would think threatening a judge would be a federal crime. Some pronto arrests would be good.
He talked about emotions, so presumably it wouldn’t be Russia (or the mafia). Rightists are something like 3-4x as Lefties to acts of terrorism, so one would expect the majority to come from that side, but neither side can be ruled out by any means.
I don’t get the point of Manafort’s attorney repeatedly commenting that this or that action by the jury (the question about reasonable doubt, the recess for the weekend) bodes well for his client. There doesn’t seem to be any point of spin here. The jury will do whatever it will do in the next couple of days regardless of whatever he says, and I don’t see any of these comments having any impact at all.
PR move.
He wants there to be plausible deniability about jury tampering when the jury comes back with all acquittals.
Political aid to Trump? Makes it sound like the car against Manafort can plausibly be voted bogus, once someone gets their eyes on the actual evidence.
There’s a couple of PredictIt markets concerning the Manafort trial that may be of interest to the gamblers in this thread.
Will Paul Manafort be convicted of a federal charge by year-end 2018?
Right now…
Yes 87¢
No 21¢
How many federal charges will Paul Manafort be convicted on by year-end 2018?
Right now…
0 charges 16¢
1 - 5 charges 11¢
6 - 10 charges 16¢
11 - 20 charges 47¢
21 - 30 charges 26¢
31 - 40 charges 2¢
41 or more charges 1¢