Truly. It’s part and parcel of the cult that All opinions carry equal weight.
Those are clearly good and salient points, but … I’m not sure they’re being ignored.
The governors are rarely effected in the same way as the governed. The powerful are immune to what can decimate the powerless. That’s reality. That’s politics.
But to the extent it’s even possible, we should be looking at a situation like this pandemic in a cool, apolitical, dispassionate way. We should be looking around the world for best practices, and then – to the extent possible – implementing them ourselves.
Where politics comes into play, we often tend to look to worst practices as a way to enhance the perception of our competence (“See ? Look how much worse it could have been !”).
Most public health experts, and most highly-respected economists, have said from the outset: save the economy by getting hold of the pandemic as best and as rapidly as we possibly can. The public health experts leaned heavily on testing, tracing, masks, distancing, and the development of a safe and effective vaccine.
AFAIK, we still haven’t done any material degree of active disease surveillance. We’re still testing overwhelmingly reactively.
And we’re fighting things like masks and distancing as if they were Omaha Beach.
Other countries – for no end of good and valid reasons – have really seen much better numbers than we have.
One reason … one important reason is the demagoguery and its eager consumers in the US.
Remember when a cohort of people with (potentially fatal) severe peanut allergies asked the airlines to switch from peanuts to pretzels ? A cohort – that same cohort that we’re dealing with today, you can be sure – asserted that – if they could no longer have peanuts on their flight – then the terrorists had won.
I understand that those who govern often have a very protected, very privileged, and very rarefied perch from which to govern, but they do also have to govern the ungovernable.
This, exactly. Absolutely, the pandemic has taken a terrible toll on our economy, on people’s livelihoods, and on people’s mental well-being. But, we, as a nation, still lack any true, coordinated, federal response to it, because our federal government has whipsawed between refusing to publicly admit that it’s an issue, and espousing woo solutions to it, while trying very hard to build distrust in the experts who should be leading our fight.
What is really needed to be able to get the economy back on its feet, and for the majority of Americans to feel confident that they can start to safely return to some semblance of their normal activities, is the belief that the government’s approach to COVID-19 is effective. Instead, our testing system is still not where it needs to be (not enough tests, too long to get results), our contact tracing system is spotty (and largely crap), and we have a significant minority of our population who are certain that the disease is no big deal (and that common-sense precautions are a conspiracy to steal their freedom and impose a godless socialist state).
Not in that large of group.
Consider this also. 5 People died in Motorcycle accidents in 2020 in or around Sturgis.
There were also 105 other accidents. Police also made 1188 drug related arrests.
Now your saying the event cause 200 or so people getting sick with i death.
This events ALWAYS has its problems. I see covid as just another.
This point is moot now that we have reopened. Now we’re just asking that people wear fricken masks. The only businesses that will be hurting are bars and other high risk events in which people can’t wear masks.
What about the 20% test positivity rate there?
Is that supposed to be a salient point?
“People die. It happens” is overly reductive and pointless. The real point is that, in this case, hundreds, if not thousands, of deaths could easily have been avoided. And not just deaths but, in light of our growing understanding of this disease, also for hundreds, if not thousands, debilitating injury short of death and potentially lifelong systemic organ damage.
Thanks to the natural experiment that is the various control measures enacted throughout the world, at this point we have a fairly decent understanding of what it takes to cut not only the vast majority of those deaths but also debilitating short term and potentially permanent injury.
Yes, people die for a variety of reasons and any event is going to be associated with some number of them. COVID is associated with way more than usual, nearly all of them completely avoidable.
Next, you will argue that smoke detectors and 9-1-1 service are unnecessary because the casualties are just “another” problem. Yes, they are another problem, but not one to dismiss so casually.
They will spread Covid to people who chose not to attend. How hard is this to see?
Yes, unfortunately the virus is spreading everywhere, primarily because of the same behaviors exhibited at the Stugis rally: not wearing masks, or wearing them improperly, not social distancing, sharing close personal space with large crowds of strangers, or letting down their guard around family and close friends. So to some degree you are correct, the people at the rally who were engaging in the riskiest behaviors probably would have been engaging in risky behaviors wherever they would have been.
However, the crossinfection potential goes up the larger the crowd size. People traveling long distances across the country to congregate en masse and then return home is much more of a spreader event than going to your local church maskless, or having a family barbeque. Is it on the order of going off to college and then holding a celebratory beer bash for all your frat bros? More? Less?
The problem is that in some cases it is getting on with death, not life. Look at that wedding in Maine that is connected with 147 cases and three deaths. Decide to attend a funeral, and the next one might be your own.
And it would be one thing of the maskless wonders were the ones to bear the brunt of their choices, but the way the virus spreads, they might just get a mild case, but someone else they cross paths with gets hit hard.
The response I like to those types of statements, which pop up all over the place (ie something something something freedom, try living in [other country]) is “it’s not a competition” or “just because they’re worse, doesn’t mean we can’t do better” or others along those lines.
Part of the problem IMO, and we knew this at the outset, is that better we do at getting this under control, the more people feel it wasn’t necessary. They ignore or don’t understand the fact that the entire country hasn’t caught it because of what we’ve done.
So? You’re really not understanding this. If a carnival ride collapses and 10 people die, do you really jump in and say 'well, statistically, 3 people died in car accidents while driving to or from the carnival, what’s 10 more?" or do you say “let’s shut down that ride until it gets fixed”.
Yeah, it’s another problem, but it’s one that the organizers and city could have done something about and chose not to. It’s a shitty situation all around. Many/most major cities have had to deal with exactly the same thing. And most of them chose to cancel the summer events.
I’m in Milwaukee. There should have been a big Harley Rally this weekend. I haven’t heard any more bikes than I would on any other weekend. When there’s a rally, I hear a lot of bikes due to where I live and work.
TLDR covid being just another problem isn’t any reason to excuse Sturgis.
And, to add to that, those ignoring the masks don’t yet seem to understand that 6 months later we’re still in this BECAUSE of them. If every single person wore a mask, social distanced, stayed home whenever possible, we’d likely be getting back to normal instead of wondering if this will ever end. The only thing protecting the maskless is the masked (Well, that and a sheer luck, like everyone else).
Sometimes I wish the government/CDC/WHO/Fauci had lied to us from day 1 and said the masks protect you from catching it instead of telling us the mask protects others from catching from you. That’s really the hurdle. Someone that doesn’t want to wear a mask and doesn’t have any symptoms isn’t going to voluntarily put one on.
Yes. That Maine wedding? Due to one idiot guest who works at a jail there are now 72 cases at that local jail. And due to another idiot guest there are also 19 cases at a rehabilitation center. People take their stupid choices with them when they go home from events both large and small.
Would that be the largest superspreader event ever? I’ll have to read this paper. Seems like a massive number. Then again, it fits the Ro, doesn’t it?
Really? I thought it was becoming better and better established that we can’t find any correlation at all, or at least not much of one if any, between ‘stringency’ and spread. I could dig for some charts and such if you like, but I thought this had been growing fairly obvious for a while.
Of course, one could still make the ‘coulda’ argument all day long with no one to stop them, as in ‘things could have been much worse if we hadn’t…’. But I don’t think one can make a strong case that shows any before-and-after affects.
The caveat is, to be sure, the places that have managed to more or less keep the virus out in the first place, like Taiwan and New Zealand. But once there was already wide spread, as there was in most non-island places – well, the data from the natural experiments just do not arrive at that conclusion.
Bolding mine.
Well, if you are going to make the claim, seeing some cites would be nice…
I’ll keep looking, for some of the things I’ve read recently, but here’s a starting point:
Maybe something is hidden when looking at the data on a phone, but that… Looks like garbage to me.
I am willing to be corrected, but it lists TWO values… The stringency value in January (zero for most places) versus late August (varies for everywhere). Then compares the number of known cases between those two dates and uses that as it’s growth value.
Basically, could have been wide open from January to August 15th, and it would show massive growth “despite stringency”, while another could have taken the strictest measures starting in January, and the two countries would likely show the same “stringency” based on this graph, with wildly different growth rates. Which would definitely make it seem like there was no correlation between stringency and growth, while having literally zero value.
…use this version:
Add or remove the countries on the list to make it easier to review.