If you say so. The author, Jim Stanford, is a research economist with a distinguished track record, a former research fellow at the Brookings Institution, and the author of seven books on economic issues.
His views are widely shared among reputable economists. Uncertainty over trade deals and currency stability would immediately deter business investment if there was even a credible risk of Alberta seceding. Reports estimate annual investment losses between $10 billion and $15 billion. A study by the Canada West Foundation warns that independence would cost at least $200 billion and create a murky financial future. A shrinking economy and business relocations could destroy between 45,000 and 175,000 jobs in the province. Roughly 40% of Alberta’s trade is with the rest of Canada. New borders and trade barriers would raise export costs and reduce market efficiency.
But never mind the facts. I’m sure you and your separatist friends know more about the economy than the consensus of leading economists.
Ndp has 39 seats in Alberta now vs 47 for the UCP. They are popular here for some reason hopefully not enough to ever hold power given the last disaster, but I think it is inevitable as Smith is pissing of her base, not for her lack of support for separation, but for believing anything Carney is selling her around pipelines and not standing up for her demands to remove harmful regulations. Allowing BC to charge a royalty on our oil products should have been the last straw. If she won’t stand up for Alberta who will?
So voters will stay home or another party on the right will form.
More than the current trade barriers already within Canada?
See, you say these things ignoring the 50 new countries that have been created in the last 50 years. You act like it has never happened before and the solutions to the problems of separation don’t exist or that Albertans are too stupid to figure them out.
This attitude that the only reason Alberta is successful is because we’re in Canada and we should be grateful for its largess.
Then the implied threat that Canada wouldn’t trade with us or make it somehow more difficult than it already is. This attitude probably is the reason Canada can’t make a deal with the US.
Trade with the US has been just fine for a hundred years, and further enhanced by the signing of NAFTA in 1992. But it has suddenly turned into a trade war in the second term of a malevolent, demented orange-hued fascist – a narcissistic psychopath who regularly insults national leaders everywhere and who’s managed to turn virtually every country in the world (except Russia) against the US.
But the trade issues are all Canada’s fault! Got it!
At the time that the Alberta NDP came into power, led by Rachel Notley, Alberta was sinking into a deep recession due to the global collapse of oil prices. Her focus was on strengthening the economy. But it’s very convenient to blame her and the NDP for Alberta’s economic problems!
But maybe the NDP does truly portend disaster. When they held power in Saskatchewan in the 60s we somehow ended up with universal health care. Lord knows the health insurance conglomerates, most of whom had to close up shop and leave the country, regarded this as a disaster perpetrated by commie leftists!
It is always someone else’s fault, isn’t it? Never the policies and ideology of the party in power. Whether Trudeau blocking development and spending money like a drunken sailor at the advice of Carney blame covid or truckers. Carney blocking deals, creating more bureaucracy to solve the problem of red tape rather than removing it, and spending like a drunken sailor, so blame orange man. Always an excuse, never an actual solution.
You are correct, but I’d suggest that Alberta’s NDP in 2015 was much like Ontario’s NDP was in 1990: “Oh boy, we’ve got power now, so let’s make a lot of changes!” Problem was, that those changes didn’t often accord with Albertans’/Ontarians’ wishes, respectively.
Alberta, 2015: “Let’s prevent more child labour, especially in the agricultural sector.” Result: Kids who were expected to help out on the family farm couldn’t, meaning farmers had to hire labour, which raised the cost of produce.
Ontario, 1990: “If we only tax more, we can get out of this recession.” Result: Because of increased corporate taxes, corporations scaled back or shut down totally, laying off thousands.
I think the two provincial NDPs have learned their lesson. Governing a province is not about slogans and pie-in-the-sky ideas, and simple solutions to complex problems; it is about dealing with the province’s constituents, who are real people, trying to make a living at a job, giving their kids the best they can, and hopefully, being able to afford a vacation once a year. Not all of them will agree on what you are doing, but discussion and debate is a damn sight better than the loaded questions that Danielle Smith wants to ask in the fall’s referendum:
Frankly, even though I hate the NDP, I hate the UCP more. I applaud the NDP’s victory in Calgary, and hope that this fall’s referendum sends the message to Smith that very few Albertans share her views. As long as her referendum questions are clearly explained to the electorate, and what would result in a Yes or No vote for each.
That wording is difficult. I do not wish to cast aspersions on my friends here in Alberta, all of whom are fine and intelligent people, but it might bamboozle a few who end up voting for what they do not want, due to misunderstanding the question.
In among all the splashes of Alberta NDP orange and UCP blue, there was plenty of red adorning the front yards of many homes ahead of this week’s Calgary-Shaw byelection …
… The red refers to the many Canadian flags homeowners have newly erected, and the pro-unity, anti-separatist lawn signs that have sprung up throughout Alberta.
The campaigning New Democrats sensed the kind of reception they’d get at those doors for their candidate Kyle Campbell, now the MLA-elect.
“If you were flying a Canadian flag or you had a forever Canadian sign … Yeah, we pretty much could mark you down as a supporter,” NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi told reporters on Tuesday, the day after his party’s victory in what was previously a UCP riding in Calgary’s deep suburbs.
I’ve seen many of these here in Alberta. Heck, the “Stay in Canada” people have a stand as your car enters the local racetrack’s parking lot, and they will happily give you a “Stay in Canada” lawn sign. I do not take them up on their offer, as while I agree with them, I do not like advertising my politics on my lawn. But such signs are common in my neighbourhood.
Speaking of criminals. Elections Alberta is getting sued for not enforcing the Third Party Advertising law on Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian group. Third Party Advertisers.
All groups related to promoting related to a referendum are required to register and report regularly on where the money is coming from and where it is spent. All the pro independent groups have done so and are reporting as required. Lukaszuk has claimed he is not promoting a position on the referendum, just randomly promoting Canada that coincidently coincides with the run-up to the referendum and thus claims he is not responsible for reporting funds. Elections Alberta seems to not dispute that claim even though as noted above the signs are clearly anti-separatist. One wonders why he bothered to register as a third party advertiser then?
I expected the dirty tricks from the stay side. They have no valid reason for Alberta staying so will do whatever it takes to win: Fearmongering, denigration and cheating.
Even the ones operating out of Russia, the Netherlands, and MAGA land? Even the Alberta separatists who stole the voter database?
Also, I wish you’d stop treating this Alberta separation stuff as something serious. If you can’t see it as the joke that it is, I don’t know what to tell you.
Then Elections Alberta should do their job and identify them and make them comply. Or at least the ones operating within Alberta. So yes even the ones who stole a database. I expect a half dozen police cars to show up at the forever Canadian offices like happened at their offices. I expect the law to be enforced for all. Do you?
An article from CBC states: Alberta’s separation from Canada could cost up to $170 billion over a five-year period and be highly unpredictable in the long term, a new report from the University of Calgary School of Public Policy released Wednesday says.
The report states that separation would give Alberta the freedom to set its own environmental laws, which could potentially boost the energy sector.
“With only one decision-maker, there could be more certainty for investors about approvals for projects, which could translate into more investment,” the report reads.
However, independence could also make the province more dependent on shipping its oil through the United States. The U.S. might be co-operative, the report states, or it might try to “take advantage of Alberta’s lack of other options.”
You do understand that an independent Alberta could not make deals with BC outside of Canada? Also the state of Alberta would most likely not have her current boarders/population, and that BC is not even detached from the rest of Canada.
Ok, so it makes deals with Canada. Is Canada going to shutdown pipelines, etc, just for spite?
I mean I expect the same ‘we’re superior’ attitude that Trump has wounded and makes them unable to make a deal with the US now, will be demonstrated in full measure if Alberta manages to separate.
The background of course is that, per polling, Albertans overwhelmingly want to stay with Canada. So something has to happen to make that opinion change, and I suspect it would involve solid evidence that the rest of Canada hates Albertans.
Under that situation, sure, Canada would spite Alberta.
Plus, because this isn’t happening anytime soon, fossil fuel will be a lot less important by then. So shutting down the remaining pipelines wouldn’t be such a big own-goal for the rest of Canada as it would be now.
