Alberta, Natural Resources, and the Rest of Canada

Ninjaed by @FinsToTheLeft, because the unjust and discriminatory time zones imposed by a callous federal government to oppress the west means we in BC get sunlight later than any other province. Indeed, the ruling eastern clique in Ontario and Quebec gets the sun three full hours before we do!

Others can confirm this (calling @Northern_Piper) but it is my understanding that “Alberta” doesn’t send money to Ottawa. That is, the provincial government doesn’t collect money and then cut a cheque to the feds. The federal government collects money from Albertans the way it does from all Canadians: from income tax, corporate taxes, and the federal sales tax.

Albertans pay the very same tax rates as other Canadians.

Albertans as a whole put more money into the system because their incomes, personal and corporate, are higher than other provinces.

This is in part because as the cite from Fins suggests, the federal government has used its tax revenue to fund infrastructure and subsidize oil production in Alberta.

Vassal states extract wealth from their resources and population and directly transfer that wealth to their suzerain. There is likely no regional government, representation does not exist and executive authority is through appointment from the overlord. Political affiliation is tightly controlled.

Meanwhile in reality, Canadian citizens in provinces pay federal taxes, elect representatives to federal and provincial legislatures and manage to choose fools and idiots regardless.

Ottawa supported these projects aimed at transporting Alberta oilsands crude to foreign markets. The federal government even purchased the Trans Mountain project from Kinder Morgan in 2018 — not to kill it, but to build it.

From the article. Why did Kinder Morgan walk away from the project? Because the BC and Feds put up roadblocks such that KM didn’t know if it would ever be built due to opposition from those governments. You can’t say that the government who puts the legislation in place to satisfy their desired policies and then finds that companies aren’t willing to risk their money complying with onerous and shifting goalposts is a hero for then buying and building that project themselves.
If they wanted it, and they want more of those projects, they need to get out of the way, not find more ways to make it difficult for companies to want to invest in Canada.

Who is denying this? Yes, Albertan’s make more money on average than other people in the rest of Canada. That is obvious. We pay more in taxes than we get back and that includes any ‘subsidies’ you claim to pay to the oil industry (vs any other industry. It’s like you think only oil and gas get tax breaks).

I posted a link above where it outlines the LNG resources that Quebec has that could fuel Europe. How long, and high, should Alberta have its citizens taxed to pay for Quebec’s desire to not develop those resources. Would the marginal tax rate then be lower if more people working in higher paying industries contributed to the government coffers?

And if they are not willing to do this when the resources are just sitting there and there is an identified market for them, then why should Alberta keep contributing to their inaction? Should that not be deducted from the money they receive?

Another poll from Angus. Just putting it out here, not commenting on it.

zing

Thanks Danielle and the UCP.

That was refreshingly clear and strong and seemingly BS free.

And might be the kind of message the USA’s Democrats could use on MAGA between now and 2026.

I only see 5 lines of the article and no way to proceed to the body.
But if you just want to criticize a specific government for their incompetence that is fine. Governments come and go. The Liberals right now are trying to reframe their narrative from the old clown show. Long term inequalities remain that cross governments. No matter the party that is elected.

And if we’re doing so bad, why do we continue to have to subsidize billions of dollars a year to other provinces? If we’re bad, what does that make them? Why are most provinces remaining net receivers of equalization payments continually over decades?

Frankly, saying that the Albertan government squandered opportunities in the use of its resources is no different than saying that the Canadian government squandered opportunities as well. Imagine if the Feds actually supported investments into Canada rather than continually throwing roadblocks?

In any case:
Positive economics of separation

Talks about equalization, tanker bans, and the inherent inequalities of confederation.

Um no - in the case of Alberta by and large Cons rule the roost for decades and they are to blame for the state of affairs of not diversifying and giving away too much of the wealth to the multi-nations
The Feds are to blame for not following through on nationalizing the oil sector ( even Putin was smart enough to do that ) and/or forcing diversity - so you had continual boom and bust.

Diversifying a nation’s economy can help it avoid a resource curse. Angola and Saudi Arabia both suffer from the resource curse, although Saudi Arabia has had success diversifying in recent years.

Taking credit for something natural processes happened to leave in Albertas bailiwick seems ludicrous.
NOT diversifying from the resultant incomes from that oil wealth is pretty much on Albertas head.

Switzerland has no natural resources and managed to thrive while Alberta has similar tourism potential and skilled workforce.

Australia and Norway have achieved modern levels of development as resourcebased economies, thus avoiding the so-called resource curse . Their ability to achieve this rested heavily on repeated diversification into new resource products and industries.

Britannica covers it well
Dutch Disease & the Resource Curse | Origin & Examples | Britannica Money.

Overcoming the resource curse

History has shown that a resource curse doesn’t have to be permanent. But overcoming it requires a coordinated effort among policymakers to diversify the home economy, frequently by diverting a portion of the profits from the resource-rich area of the economy to others it wishes to promote. Examples include:

  • Norway. After finding vast oil and gas reserves in the North Sea in the 1960s, the Nordic country sidestepped Dutch disease by saving its revenue in what has become the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, which as of early 2025 holds over $1.74 trillion, invested mostly in shares of publicly held stocks. The country invests domestically to support such industries as shipping, aquaculture (i.e., salmon farming), renewable energy (hydropower and offshore wind), and technology start-ups.
  • Botswana. As one of the world’s largest diamond producers, Botswana has been able to avoid much of the corruption, inequality, and economic stagnation that has plagued some of its neighboring countries by instituting a strict rule of law and anti-corruption measures, and by using its diamond revenues to invest in education, infrastructure, and health, as well as its tourism and financial services sectors.
  • United Arab Emirates. Realizing early on that oil exports could not guarantee long-term prosperity, the U.A.E. expanded tourism in Dubai and finance in Abu Dhabi. The country also positioned itself as a global business hub with low taxes and world-class technology and shipping infrastructure.

The bottom line

Dutch disease and the broader resource curse can be detrimental to a country’s economy, affecting local jobs, domestic politics, national security, and the fortunes of international investors.

A key remedy is a properly diversified economy that relies on more pillars than a single natural resource. Countries that have successfully avoided the resource curse have typically diverted some of the windfall revenue from their top commodities to support other areas of the economy.

Um no. Your comment on Switzerland would apply to each province currently getting equalization payments for DECADES. You can’t blame Alberta’s government for that.
Provinces like Ontario and Quebec have no excuse because they have more than enough resources to compete directly with Alberta and get similar results. Again you can’t blame Alberta for their incompetence.
What I can say is if $20B/yr hadn’t left Alberta, we’d be in a much better place even with incompetent government.

Economic diversification:
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/commentary/evidence-clear-alberta-no-petrostate?utm_source=chatgpt.com

What it appears your argument is that we wouldn’t be thinking of leaving Canada if we only had a competent provincial government that would use our resources efficiently.
What would happen then is that not only would we be sending even more money in equalization payments, the politicians in the Ottawa would be working on finding more ways to block us and more ways to ‘share’ the wealth.

The method used to determine if Alberta is more a petrostate and/or has more dependence on a single natural resource compared to other Canadian provinces does not make sense to me. Here is where they got their source data:

Being concentrated in “services” (Ontario) is not the same as being concentrated in oil and gas.

I love this conversation.

Before I get into my questions, I want to relate two stories:

First, about 30 years ago when Quebec was postulating independence, I had a conversation with an attorney from Saskatoon.He told me that the perpetual hurdle to Quebecois independence was that the province didn’t want to take its debt with it to become independent.

“Everyone wants a clean slate,” he told me. “But if you want to be free, you have to take your debt with you, eh. And Quebec doesn’t want to take its debt. Get it? Eh?”

This is the second story: In 2017 I went on a biking trip in Italy. There was a Canadian woman on the trip who had had the misfortune of being born in the US. When she was 38 years old, she decided she didn’t want to file US taxes any more and decided to renounce her US citizenship. It cost her about US $2000.

Our guys tried to talk her out of it, explaining all of the good things about being a US taxpayer. To her credit, she said, “One citizenship is enough for me.” Today renouncing US Citizenship costs about US $2700.

The biggest gripe for you, Uzi, seems to be that you pay too much in taxes. Here are my 5 questions, Uzi:

  1. A referendum on citizenship will only result in a “discussion” for Alberta independence. Is 50% +1 sufficient to trigger that “discussion”? Or will there have to be some super-majority of the Alberta population to make Ottawa take the people of Alberta seriously?
  2. Canada has birthright citizenship. If Alberta becomes independent, will Albertans have both Canadian and Albertan citizenship? Will Albertans be exempt from Canadian taxes if they choose to keep both citizenships?
  3. What will be the period for transitioning from a subsidized, “Canadian” health care system to a priviate “Albertan” health care system? Will “Canadian” doctors get to choose to leave?
  4. From the article linked above by MacDoc, it seems Consevative leadership has not managed the wealth of the Province wisely. Is there a plan for a Sovereign Wealth Fund of the sort that Norway has?
  5. I suspect that if Alberta becomes independent it will exhaust its resources. Will it then choose to join the United States or to rejoin Canada when oil sands are played out and it has substantial cleanup costs? I’m an American. Why would we want to take you? Why would we, or Canada, want to assume those costs?

I forgot to ask the question that was the point of my first question:

How much of the Canadian federal debt is Alberta willing to assume should it gain independence?

You want to walk with Zero debt, right, Uzi?

That won’t happen, so think abut how much of the 1.7 trillion of the Canadian debt is yours and how much you will assume.

For short term bonds, I can see your question making sense. For long term bonds – not so much.

Say that a Bank of Canada bond comes due in 2040. The new Alberta central bank, back in 2029, had promised to pay its share of the proceeds, in 2040. to, depending on how the promise was written, either the individual bondholder, or, to make it simpler for the bondholder, maybe the Bank of Canada.

In 2040, it will be very important that Alberta promptly pay all the bondholders with Albertan securities. But if Alberta is then in financial distress, I do not see where they have a big incentive to pay Canadian bondholders. So long as Alberta remains totally committed to pay their own bondholders, the impact of on the Alberta credit rating, of not paying Canada, should be low to moderate.

The resentment of an independent Alberta, for Canada, will not be resolved by independence. They will be continuing reasons found to be unhappy, and reneging on the debt would be politically popular in Alberta. And the higher the debt percent Alberta assumed in the 2020’s, the less likely they would be to actually pay it in the 2040’s.

If Alberta becomes affiliated with the U.S., the incentive to fulfill promises to Canada becomes less still.

This doesn’t sound right to me. The debt to Canada would be held in the form of Albertan securities issued by the new Divided State of Alberta of America. Which securities Canada would be free to trade on the open market and I’m fairly certain they would find buyers in the petro-industry or the nations that have interest in same (at a discount for risk, of course). Alberta would end up owing that money to the US or China. Failure to pay those would have the same impact on the credit rating as not paying any other security - catastrophic for future borrowing. Failure to pay too much of it to the US might cause…tensions.

Not about paying less taxes, although we will because we aren’t sending the money elsewhere.

  1. Not defined. But it is a given that the RoC won’t honor any referendum. At some point in the discussions Alberta will have to unilaterally declare it is independent. We can’t have some politician in Quebec pulling a Harper killing the constitutional change required to allow independence.
  2. Canada allows people to have multiple citizenships. See current PM. They even allow terrorists to be Canadian. So, they will have to allow Albertans to retain their citizenship. The same I imagine for those who were born in Alberta and live elsewhere.
  3. Alberta pays for its healthcare currently.
  4. Probably. With the money not going to other provinces it should be easy to create.
  5. If Alberta exhausts its resources within Canada the equalization scheme will change such that Alberta will not receive benefits.

Bonus answer: Re assuming debt. Of course Alberta will pay its share. Now what that is given how much we pay into the Federal coffers and how much isn’t sent back to Alberta is part of the independence discussions, isn’t it?

Let’s pretend we are roommates. We agree to share the electrical bill. You run a crypto mining datacenter in your room and run up the costs. Should we split the bill 50/50?

Or lets try this one. You put so many new regulations into effect that make it impossible for a company to continue to build their project. You freak out that it will look bad if it isn’t built so purchase it yourself and end up building it for 5x its original cost. You then try to convince me that you did it as a favor to me and I should be grateful. How much should I pay for your stupidity?

You act like we had much say in the debt that Canada racked up. But, I’d agree to a straight division by population and we take on that just to shut the door on the matter.

As I said earlier, in Canada squeaky wheels often get greased. And the provinces do like to squawk.

Alberta has several valid points. However, like Quebec, often their own governments are part of the precipitate. They are not going anywhere, and the protests and protestations are purely performative. Equalization and redistribution have their problems. But Norway is even more redistributive and highly taxed than Canada.

I mean, that’s never going to happen, man.

But why should any county honor such a thing? Could part of Alberta subsequently separate from Alberta and rejoin Canada or declare independence? Think about this for a moment.

Citizenship is defined by law. All Canada would have to do is change the law.

Alberta receives billions in federal health transfers. All provinces do.

Much of the political discourse in Alberta is fuelled by oil companies who want low taxation, low royalties, less environmental regulation, and the like. See “Koch Brothers” for more on this corporate agenda more broadly. To accomplish this political agenda, they use the misdirection of provincial rights and unfair federalism and support politicians who are happy to play along. Clean up that aspect of Alberta politics and then we can examine the grievances more carefully. At the same time, the federal government plays to different corporate interests that are not identical to those of the oil industry. That too is a problem. Kvetching about “Liberal misrule” and “Trudeau” however does not take up that problem.