I have to put my votes in for Ethan and Rupert. They both have worked pretty hard and although I hope that none of the past winners will win, if any of them do I would hope it is Ethan.
I think it’s going to make it more interesting having three tribes instead of just two this time. It’ll be exciting to see how people from different seasons interact with each other, especially after having the chance to see how everyone operates. I think Rupert will have a slight advantage though, especially since his season hadn’t even aired at the beginning of the All-Star game. No one will really have an idea of the kind of player he is.
I think Colby has an advantage right out of the gate, because I don’t think Tina will ever vote against him. He basically gave her that million dollars last time.
Saboga (yellow): Ethan, Rudy, Rupert, Jenna L., Jerri, and Tina
Mogo Mogo (green): Rich, Colby, Lex, Jenna M., Shii Ann, and Kathy
Chapera (red): Rob C., Rob M., Big Tom, Alicia, Amber, and Sue Hawk
On paper, the red tribe looks like it will kick ass. But with only six people per tribe, the politics are going to be intense right from the beginning.
I didn’t watch the first series, but I’ve always felt Richard Hatch has too big a reputation. From what I’ve heard, his biggest accomplishment was to form an alliance and not let the other players know it. Admittedly, it was a great and original idea back then, but it’s not like it’s going to succeed twice. The playing field’s level.
What’ll be interesting about this year will be the baggage from past seasons. Richard, Tina, Ethan, and Jenna will all have the disadvantage of having already won. This’ll make them targets for the others. In addition, everyone’ll suspicious of people who they know have old alliances with people on the other tribes. Nobody will want to go into a merger with Tom, Ethan, and Lex for example.
So I think Rupert will have some advantages. He’s a nice guy which did work to his advantage. He’s an active worker and food provider (especially back in Panama). He won’t be seen as an obvious threat because he has no built in allies. And he’s the only person on this show whose playing style will be an unknown factor to the others.
A few other predictions: Shii Ann will do well; she’s a smart player who only made one mistake and like Rupert she won’t appear suspicious (although unlike Rupert she has a history of jumping teams that’ll be held against her). Godfather Rob and Amazon Jenna will be two early casualties; neither was a hard worker, Rob’s obnoxious and incompetent and Jenna’s already won a million. Jerri and Tina will form an alliance; they’re the only two tribemates who’ve previously started on the same tribe and while they were enemies last time, they have similar personalities and both will see the advantages of working together (especially if they can hook up with old allies Amber and Colby).
Seems they really loaded it up with Australia people.
If I had to peg a winner, I’d say Big Tom. People seem to have forgotten how powerful a player he was. His ignorant hick disguise hid his intelligence, cunning, and influence well. One of my favorite players on the show, I can’t wait to see him in action again.
You know, I can actually see Rudy and Rupert getting along rather well and forming a bond. I can also see them hooking up with Richard after the merge if they all made it. I bet the three of them will ride until at least the final 6 or 7 people, and Richard will be the first of their group to go. I actually can see Rudy making it to final 3 again… this time not letting go of the idol
Of course, I am talking our of my butt and really have no cloue. Should be fun to see whatever happens though.
Something I have been thinking about is how old alliances may be MUCH more fragile on the second go -around.
Weren’t Lex and Ethan allies? But didn’t they bad mouth each other when they were being interviewed by themselves?
Could there be this type of hard feelings out there?
I agree that Richard is not “dangerous” because he was the first. I do think that he will be harmed because of the perception though.
Even though other players have been just as good, he is the Neil Armstrong of Survivor.
After the All-Star version, they should do a version with the WORST players ever.
That would be AWESOME!
Brandon the bartender (Africa) would be required!
And bring back ALL the first voted off players (that would be an interesting twist for this series!)
It’s going to be interesting.
I’m kinda rooting for Shii-Ann, Jenna L. (from the original show), Alicia, Big Tom or Lex.
I’m dying to see how this one shakes out. The ads mention that they’ve saved the biggest twists for this time. I wonder if they’re really doing something different, or if that refers to the three tribes?
Predicting the first off is difficult obviously because it depends largely on who loses the challenge.
With three teams will it mean who comes in LAST or will there be TWO tribal councils?
If there is only one, then to forcast it, you have to predict the weakest team and who they would oust.
I’ll make an early call and say that the Red team will lose (they seem to be the weakest team) and they will oust Amber. She is the least helpful and SOMEONE will remark to the camera that she is only on because she is a hottie. If you see ANY attention paid to Amber by the editing, then feel confident she is out.
If it is yellow- Jerri
If it is green- Richard (helpful or not, he gets the ax.)
Chapera tribe (the tribes are named for various of the Pearl Islands)
Amber Brkich (Survivor: The Australian Outback - Ogakor)
Tom Buchanan (Survivor: Africa - Boran)
Alicia Calaway (Survivor: The Australian Outback - Kucha)
Rob Cesternino (Survivor: The Amazon - men)
Sue Hawk (Survivor: Pulau Tiga - Tagi)
Rob Mariano (Survivor: Marquesas - Maraamu)
Saboga tribe
Rudy Boesch (Survivor: Pulau Tiga - Tagi)
Rupert Boneham (Survivor: Pearl Islands - Drake)
Jenna Lewis (Survivor: Pulau Tiga - Pagong)
Jerri Manthey (Survivor: The Australian Outback - Ogakor)
Tina Wesson (Survivor: The Australian Outback - Ogakor)
Ethan Zohn (Survivor: Africa - Boran)
Mogo Mogo tribe
Colby Donaldson (Survivor: The Australian Outback - Ogakor)
Richard Hatch (Survivor: Pulau Tiga - Tagi)
Shii Ann Huang (Survivor: Thailand - Sook Jai)
Jenna Morasca (Survivor: The Amazon - women)
Lex van den Berghe (Survivor: Africa - Boran)
Kathy Vavrick-O’Brien (Survivor: Marquesas - Rotu)
So by show, there are five from Australia, four from Pulau Tiga, three from Africa, two apiece from Amazon and Marquesas, and one apiece from Thailand and Panama. If you break it down by original teams, the balance is even more off: there are four Ogakors, three Tagis, three Borans, and eight players who are the sole representatives of their previous tribes.
From what I heard from the players last season, Rupert gets on people’s nerves after awhile, so I don’t see him winning. He is good to keep around for awhile as a workhorse. He really pissed me off with all his whining about being the poor picked on fat kid in school that nobody liked and that the other players crushed his dreams - to own and be pirate master of his very own island. Ugh. He has a huge ego, he’s on two consecutive seasons of Survivor and CBS portrays his as this big lovable underdog character. I’ve already seen enough of him, and I’m afraid I’ll be seeing more of him after this season. Please don’t let him win, too.
Can’t wait to see who gets voted off first. Man, that’s gotta suck, being the first one voted off of ASS. AFAIK, everyone this season made it fairly far in their own season, so getting voted off early this time is a major step down. Of course, someone’s got to go, but still.
Ooooo! Suffering! Me likey this Survivor so far. Nice twist that they weren’t able to bring back fire from the challenge or the tribal council. Going in I though the Saboga tribe was going to be stronger than they ended up being. I fear Rudy will be a liability rather than a strength for the tribe this time. On the other hand, the Chapera turned out to be much stronger than they first appeared. But damn…Sue…you actually thought “Yes. This skimpy bikini is perfect for me to wear on Survivor.” My eyes!
Richard Hatch is an idiot. Does anyone doubt that if the Mogo Mogo’s had lost the immunity challenge, he would have been voted out? He seemed determined to alienate everyone.
Glad to see Tina gone. I never saw the supposed “nice mom” image others talk about. To me, Tina was always a deceitful schemer who won a million by stabbing several people (including friends and allies) in tha back.
While Chapera did well in the first immunity challenge, I don’t see them as long term winners. They seem like six individuals (and not six particularly talented individuals) rather than a tribe. Godfather Rob seems as stupid as ever - loved the way he talked about “brains” and “idiots” with no clue which side of the balance he lives on. Amber seems determined to follow the fate of Sara, the last bimbo who allied with Rob.
There was a moment when it seemed someone recognized Rupert. Didn’t someone shout out “there’s the big guy” when the Sabogas walked out for the first challenge?
I love that Richard Hatch is back, he’s the original survivor of course. And I do not think he’s an idiot (yet), he knew coming in he’d be target #1 but he probably isn’t just going to give up and throw away the prize money - who knows what he’s got going on behind the scenes. Remember, they don’t always air every conversation between all the survivors, they were there for a few days this time and we only saw about 10 minutes of footage from each tribe. That’s a lot of hours in the day we missed!
Yeah, it certainly seemed to me by their reaction that they had been able to watch part or all of Pearl Islands (perhaps not the final episode?)…they probably had a good guess which one(s) would be back for All-Stars, and Rupert was the most obvious choice.
