My take:
This is always a hard week to predict. Most of the dross is gone, and it is all about who has the most energized fan base now.
In danger of going home:
MICHAEL JOHNS -
He is competing with David Cook for the “slightly dangerous quasi-rocker” crowd. He messed up in not matching the original, and it really is a stretch to call it inspirational.
SYESHA MERCADO -
She would have been a real contender a few years back - cute, charismatic, good voice - but nobody is doing the 10 octive run Mariah/Whitney thing anymore. And she doesn’t do it as flawlessly as she needs to to pull it off. It was a huge mistake to do a prior “winner’s song”, for 2 reasons: 1) that is the signature song of a performer that has sort of faded away, and 2) she didn’t do it as good. Ah, well.
CARLY SMITHSON -
She’s always been the singer whose personality gotten in the way of her fantastic and skilled performances. She was a great singer that didn’t inspire fans, sort of the anti-Sanjaya. This week showed the kink in her vocal performance, which could be the end for her. She just failed to finish big on “Show must go on”, a song that calls for screaming desperation. SHe just didn’t have it.
Safe, but won’t win -
JASON CASTRO -
OK, but quirky can only get you so far.
KRISTY LEE COOK -
I think she actually pulled up a little bit. She is the one voice for the “Country Crowd”, who is a very powerful voice in AI Land. For the first time she actually may have earned their support. Also, “Anyway” really fit the theme. SHe may be in danger though, because her base may thinks she is safe aqnd sit on their hands (see Chris Daughtry), and the shortened version of “Anyway” had to build too quickly to be really effective.
BROOKE WHITE -
I’m sad she’s in this catagory, because she is my favorite. Carol King is right up her alley, and she sang it well, if not with originality. The problem is that the song and her style is cool, calm and relaxing. AI favors vocal fireworks and loud, powerful endings. Neither Carol or Brooke are suited for that.
Front Runners - in both cases, they don’t deserve to be here, but their fans will carry them past this weak week.
DAVID COOK -
Worst performance yet, and I want him to sing something that the average viewer will know in a style they are familiar with. He can sometimes come accross as “Too Cool For The Show I’m On”. Most likely to win, and then dis the show at every concert thereafter.
DAVID ARCHULETA -
Cute can only take you so far, but it’s likely to take him to the finals.