On the heels of the big news and the growing certainty of the new nominee, I’d like to once again try to nail down specifics.
As of right now, what would you set as the change in odds for a Democratic candidate to win the White House, compared to three days ago? Note that who is currently winning and by how much is irrelevant. I’m just interested in the swing.
Harris will start out leading Trump in the polls by say 2% and upcoming events will hold or increase that margin. For starters her entrance (and Joes exit) kind of nullifies the Trump assassination attempt, although he will continue to play the pity card to his base.
Then the convention, pick of a VP and the debate will maintain or widen that lead. There is nothing but opportunities out there for her, Trump will just be dumbfounded to do more than he always has, name calling.
I hope you’re right but I am less confident. Yes timing is well played as it kneecaps what was already not much of a bounce from the assassination attempt and GOP convention with a very good opportunity to own the news cycles until after the convention.
But.
The swayable voters (be it for one, the other, the third, or stay home choices) are few. Getting to a lead big enough to win the electoral college is still going to be a huge challenge. Getting to a point or so above is very possible soon. The more than that will be harder to pick fruit.
Much I think depends on how well she can neutralize the attack on immigration issues, control the conversation to focus on several other issues, not only Trump being an felon, and thread needles on various potential wedge items.
Specific question of the op: I expect a four point swing by two weeks of polling. Maybe aggregate Harris plus one. Which she will need to do better than to win.
There are polls out there and some data can be extracted. Not so much on Kamala but what the numbers are for Kennedy. Those votes she can pull. 2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling
Here for instance Kennedy was holding 8%. That just means they picked a someone else.
If you go by betting markets, the odds for Republicans dropped from 65% 3 days ago to 58% today so a 7 point swing.
It will be a week or two before anything can reliably be quantified, in my opinion. There were a decent number of voters turned off by both candidates. They were wanting someone new and younger so some of them may look at Harris.
There are still undecideds as well as some voters in Kennedy’s numbers that should be persuadable. Not likely huge numbers but it could be enough to swing things toward the Ds.
Also, this change and VP speculation will dominate the news cycle for a few minutes and keep Trump out of the headlines. This already appears to be bothering DJT. Add in how vicious he gets in his attacks on strong women and that may push some numbers toward Harris.
I’ll try to keep my promise to myself to not spend too much time on polls, but I’d LIKE to imagine there would be at least SOME positive swing, if only by removing the age issue. But I really can’t imagine how to get into the mind of someone who is undecided at this point. Or unsure whether to turn out. I can imagine all manner of BS factors swaying such people.
IMO, the biggest effect is that this creates the potential for momentum in the Dems’ favor. (I am SO afraid they’ll figure out some way to blow that!). I’m not sure that momentum will be measurable for a while yet. And I’m only interested in polls among likey voters in swing states.