First, thanks to tomndebb for re-opening the thread. I politely hope everyone can get along or at least pretend to, so I don’t look stupid for requesting the re-open.
I’m here.
I’m not really sure what happened to my weekend but I’ve been mostly away from the computer. Apologies for dropping the ball. That said, others have answered what I did not: a “failed trial” is one that doesn’t achieve its pre-specified objectives, whatever they are.
Anyway:
AND
Disclaimer: I have not, myself, ever worked directly on a mental health trial. My therapeutic area is different (one you would probably call “physical” medicine). I have, however, read dozens upon dozens of journal articles and study reports across the specialties, and I’m fairly familiar with most of them.
Critically: **There are very few meaningful differences between a psychiatric drug and any other drug in terms of how it is tested, evaluated, and approved. **
They all start the same: in a laboratory somewhere, where chemists hypothesize that if they can do X, it might have beneficial effect Y. They develop their drug and test it without living subjects, and then using mice or dogs or monkeys - trying to see whether they’re getting the chemical reactions they want and whether they’re hurting the test subjects. One difference with drugs for depression manifests at this stage - animal testing is a little less useful to establish efficacy. You can tell whether your drug is lowering Templeton the rat’s cholesterol, but not whether Templeton feels less social anxiety, right?
In any case, once you have a candidate drug - again, this applies across every field of medicine - you’re going to petition the FDA to let you give your drug to human patients (you’ll also have to petition the regulatory authorities of any other country where you want to test, but let’s keep this simple). You’ll send literally everything you have to FDA. They’ll inspect your manufacturing sites, review every shred of data you’ve ever produced, and then they’ll give you a go-ahead.
You’ll conduct a Phase 1 study. This will be a safety study, with a small number of patients. You won’t be able to tell if the drug works from this study - there will be too few patients. You might be able to get a sense of the general trend, but what you really want to be sure of is that your drug isn’t going to kill people or make them grow a third arm. FDA will approve the design of this study.
If this works, you’ll seek permission to initiate a Phase 2 study (and eventually an even larger Phase 3 study), with more patients. In this study, you’re going to start establishing the benefits of your drug. You’ll enroll more patients. You might compare patients who receive your drug with patients receiving no treatment, or a placebo, or another drug. Before you even start the study, you will agree with FDA on the goal of the study. For a cancer drug, it might be survival (how long the patient lives). For depression, you will identify one or more validated instruments for measuring depression. You’ll see if the patients getting your drug have better scores on those instruments over time than patients who do not… but “better” won’t be good enough. You’ll identify - again, this is before anyone ever gets a dose! - how much better they have to do in order to be statistically significant (which ultimately just means that the patients getting your drug have to do so much better that it’s not likely to be the result of chance). The statistical measures here don’t care if you’re treating heart disease or lupus or rabies or anxiety or depression - they are absolute and objective.
Now you conduct your studies. A drug company will typically work with one (or more) external investigators, physicians at academic institutions or hospitals who actually conduct the trial, treat and evaluate the patients, and record the results. For Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials, even the investigators are often blinded - that is, they don’t know which patients are getting the investigational drug and which are not (this keeps them from being biased in favor of your drug).
Now remember, you’ve been in consultation with FDA all the way. They know you conducted this study. You are supplying them regular safety reports. When the trial is done, if you achieve your goal: GREAT! You write up a detailed report and send it to FDA. You announce the results via press release. Then you submit a marketing application to FDA including the full study results, plus all the results of everything you’ve ever done with this drug. They look at it and - if they think the benefit you’ve shown outweighs whatever risk you’ve shown - they will approve the drug to be sold.
If your trial fails? You still write the report. You still make the announcement via press release. And then, guess what: you don’t give the drug to patients ever again (at least, not for that condition).
I can’t emphasize this enough: there are no shadow clinical trials, secreted away from the public eye, that secretly show that marketed drugs are ineffective. I cannot even fathom how such a thing could happen!
Now, look. The industry - like every industry - has problems. There is corruption; there are greedy people and unethical people, and greedy unethical people. There is also incompetence. I do not want to minimize the importance of these things. Every person in the pharma industry who is ethical - and I can tell you, whether you believe me or not, that 95% or more are - despises the cheats and the frauds as much as or more than you do. But the things I believe most strongly are these:
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The vast majority of people working in the drug industry, including nearly all the doctors and researchers, genuinely want to help people, and work honestly and diligently to do this. We all want to make money, too - I assume you also want to make money doing whatever your job is! - but the attraction of producing usable science is part of the compensation, as well.
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To the extent that corruption, incompetence, etc, are a problem, they are not a problem unique to psychiatric medications. There is nothing about Zyprexa or Lexapro that makes them especially susceptible to these things compared to Gemzar or Nexium.