Assuming America survives this: Name permanent changes to American life

The Quarantine Zone
21

ISTM that even before this pandemic, there has been a great push to living online and remote activities. Now we are seeing acceleration of this trend with more acceptance of working from home, and ramping up of delivery services, etc.

I do believe that we will see more ghost grocery stores where they exist solely for delivery supply. There has been a trend of delivery-only restaurants already in urban areas, so I see this spilling into grocery store, liquor stores, etc.

In general, it is clear that many (including in this thread) are questioning the need for in-person interaction. Personally, I believe there is some ineffable value in in-person interaction. Watching a movie at home is just not the same as going to a movie theater and having a shared audience experience. Same with sporting events, comedy performances, live theatre, live music, live speakers (TED talk, etc.). Business meetings in-person are better than ZOOM. In-person training and classes are better.

But, I accept that trends are moving in the opposite direction. A lot of people really prefer the comfort of their homes and seeing things on TV or working solely online. (My opinion is that they are missing something important, but that’s not the debate I’m trying to have.)

So, wrapping this all up and taking it to the logical conclusion - people staying home and eschewing human interaction generally - my prediction is that there will be a greater acceptance of sex work, that it will eventually be broadly legalized, and will become even more of an on-call “delivery service” industry.

22

Hell, most people don’t remember the 2009-10 H1N1/09 influenza pandemic even though it may have caused upward of half a million deaths worldwide. (The abysmal lack of testing–only 1.6 million confirmed cases but epidemiological estimates of infection vary from 50M to 1.5B–highlights how little we actually understand about transmissible disease even after it has occurred.) While that flu–which is in the same hemagglutinin/neuraminidase subtype as the 1918-19 ‘Spanish Flu’–turned out to have no greater of an estimated infection fatality rate than the typical seasonal influenza strains, as with Spanish Flu most deaths were a result of cytokine release syndrome and disproportionately affected people under the age of 65, and it is still not understood why that strain was not more lethal compared to the stain responsible for the 1918-19 pandemic.

As for permanent changes to American (and other) societies, I have to agree with Lord Feldon, Fretful Porpentine, et al that the only real changes will be those that were already occurring anyway such as the death of shopping malls, a switch to online voting for both primary and general elections, et cetera, and these are more a matter of convenience than fear of contracting the virus. Hell, we are in the square middle of the pandemic and by every expert accounting we have not even seen the peak in developed nations (which has been suppressed by the various distancing and isolation measures) and yet people are already agitating to go to crowded beaches, hair salons, restaurants, et cetera. Most people simply don’t believe that they will be one of the unlucky ~1% who present a critical case if infected unless they have been personally impacted, and once this pandemic passes (as it will, whether we get a working vaccine or not, although the SARS-CoV-2 virus is likely to become endemic due to the fact that domestic animals can serve as reservoirs) people will go back to their normal lifestyle because the constant stress (emotional, financial, and social) is untenable in the face of an invisible threat. Of course sporting and entertainment events will return because they are very popular and financially rewarding for venue owners and participants, and of course business travel will resume because many people live for this (although if the airlines really take it on the chin and petroleum prices ramp up and don’t return, it may be a lot more expensive and therefore infrequent, but not because people don’t want to travel). Really, the more serious effects that will be remembered of this pandemic are going to be a serious economic recession and the impact upon food production and distribution systems rather than the direct effects of the disease itself.

I suspect the most permanent changes specifically related to the pandemic is that many nations will implement permanent screening criteria into their visa/entrance process, which may include antibody testing, certification of health, et cetera. We may see some changes in grocery and retail to automate checkout and improve sanitation, although how extensive these are depends on how much store owners want to invest in the infrastructure. This likely means that many of the jobs that have gone away during the pandemic will not come back, and some of the front line positions that expose people to contagion may also be changed or eliminated in favor of automation (which was an already existing trend based upon cost savings). Small businesses will continue to struggle and many will also not return. ‘Gig’ work will continue because our economy has a significant interest in it, and while I would hope that there would be more consideration for the ‘social support’ systems such as some kind of universal health care, basic income assistance, and other support services such that people running small businesses doing gig jobs don’t have to live in constant fear from paycheck to paycheck to just have access to essential needs, that all depends upon the political will of society as a whole to recognize this as a fundamental problem.

I would hope that this pandemic will also result in more robust epidemiological surveillance systems for highly infectious pathogens and more of a focus on catching and containing outbreaks before they become pandemics but I have little hope for that, either. As this pandemic fades and pressing security, resource scarcity, and other global conflicts come to the forefront, people will just remember this as being “that year (or two) that we dealt with COVID-19” and not take away the lesson of the damage that even this comparatively mild pandemic can do to our fragile global distribution systems as well as the damage from misinformation, both deliberate and borne from mistrust of governments to disseminate factual information and provide useful guidance. We are in desperate need of a pan-national organization that is truly independent of the influence of individual nations (as the World Health Organization has been shown to be) to dealt with this unique kind of threat because infectious pathogens do not respect national borders or political interests, but of course that will not occur.

Stranger

23

None.

24

If the OP is asking about changes due to fear of the next pandemic, then I would agree “none.” Once this is past, I don’t see a big fear of the next one.

However, this is accelerating people’s awareness of new ways of doing things. Grocery delivery, working from home, voting by mail, etc., could catch on just because they’re easier or better, regardless of any health benefits.

25

Hear, hear. That’s something I won’t miss.

26

Actually, one thing I haven’t seen mentioned yet is that one can see a more compelling case for a universal health care system on the European model, in a time when enormous numbers of people lose their jobs and, in many cases, the medical plans that were tied to those jobs.

27

Just WAGs – changes that might happen.

It’s possible we’re entering the nastiest recession in living memory, maybe even the ‘D’ word. The following seem likely, although they were in progress and will merely accelerate:

  • The collapse of expensive hobbies, as they lose sufficient membership to support themselves. Most of these require a supply chain of those who build, sell and maintain the equipment. For example, would you spend the money and time to become a small airplane mechanic? Airframe and Powerplant schools can last five years and cost as much as expensive colleges. With fewer and fewer people able to afford Cessnas/etc. it seems like a dying field. And that could be self-fulfilling I guess. Ditto for mainstream market boats, as fewer and fewer risk the training time or expense to build a business around them. Hunting as a sport will probably face the same problems – fewer and fewer participants, causing rising prices, causing fewer to participate, and on and on. Most of these will have a few super rich participants at the top, in large yachts, high dollar safaris, or business jets, but as hobbies they may all but disappear. I’m sure there are a lot more, but these come to mind first.

  • A lot fewer restaurants and small businesses, at least for a while. Those jillions of dollars in PPP and SBA loans are payment deferred I think. If I understand it correctly, the payments start coming due in December, right as merchants hope for their big Christmas profits. I hope I’m wrong, but I think Christmas will be pretty bleak this year. And all those small businesses hoping for a holiday rush to help with the new bills will be in trouble. I hate it, but I’d guess many of them won’t be around in January.

28

Maybe we’ll adopt the Demolition Man high five.

29

I too would hate to see those businesses suffer, but I would love to live in a world where Christmas was a minor holiday with much less emphasis on gifts and that took only a week or two of our attention.

30

Of all of the things that Demolition Man has predicted, that is the most prescient. I’m still waiting for the “three seashells” and am desperately hoping that Taco Bell does not win the Restaurant Wars.

Stranger

31

No major changes:

  1. Nope, people will flock back. Why shouldn’t they?

  2. Nope, people will flock back. Why shouldn’t they?

  3. Yes, many companies have found video conferencing works and is cheaper. More working from home. Not a massive change, but certainly a long term one.

  4. No, they still serve a purpose in getting the electorate het up.

I dont expect any other real long term changes after Covid is beat. Until then, certainly.

32

I concur. Yes, more working from home, more videoconferencing and yes, Malls that were teetering will be finished off- they were dying anyway.

33

The biggest long term changes will be.

  1. Much more local production of medical devices, the world over. Governments will insist on it, even to the point of supporting unprofitable companies and uneconomical production units.
  2. Public Health will be seen as a national security issue. Already intelligence agencies the world over are assisting in the track, trace, and quarantine programs, either overtly, like in Israel or Pakistan or behind the scenes. This will be used to justify a metric fuckton of surveillance and data collection. I think in the future our mobile devices will be able to record things like temperature, heartbeat, blood pressure, and store it, accessible to the medical authorities. Privacy will mean something else.
  3. International Travel will be restricted for the foreseeable future. Visa-free travel might and probably some sort of health screening will have to be done as standard. Possibly technology will be used to make it fast and convenient, eventually.
34

I disagree. While I think this year’s summer sports seasons will be pretty strange, I think that there’s just a fundamental difference between watching a sporting event live, vs. on TV. Especially with college sports and all the tradition/pageantry surrounding it.

That was the case beforehand anyway; at worst, this is a minor acceleration of an existing process.

I doubt it… managers have too much invested in controlling their employees to agree to perpetual WFH, and as much as I don’t like meetings, there’s a lot of utility to face-to-face meetings that you just don’t get over zoom/gotomeeting/skype/Webex (i’m on one as we speak; couldn’t do that in person!)

I have a feeling that the most profound effects will be ones that are unforeseen, or subtle. For example, we’re feeling the pain of disruptions to the JIT supply chains from farm-to-table right now. Will those supply chains change? Will food prices go up as a result?

I think what we’ll see is less earthshaking overall. We’ll be sort of permanently socially distanced- maybe not six feet, but less up in others’ personal space than before, and hygiene/sneeze and cough habits will be much more scrutinized.

I think WFH will get a larger measure of acceptance, if only because companies have been forced to do it, and are realizing that the places aren’t falling apart or burning down without having their workers directly under their thumbs.

I think we’ll see a series of oscillations in the various supply chains over time, as producers overproduce to meet current demand, and then are faced with a glut, etc… For example, we’ll see LOTS of flour, then a shortage, and then a lesser glut, and lesser shortage, etc… while they figure out the constant demand.

I know people will be MUCH more prepper-minded. LOTS of people are going to lay in stocks of toilet paper and keep it up over time, in case there’s another pandemic or natural disaster. Same for hand sanitizer, flour, etc…

35

I expect hand sanitizer will be standard stuff in offices and homes. And probably places like cinemas. The same way as hospitals have it everywhere, with dispensers nailed to the walls. As you enter a place, etiquette will demand that you clean your hands with it.

36

Long term, nothing will change. Not one thing; there will be changes in the short term, but within a year or two not a single thing will be different that wouldn’t have been different anyway.

The capacity of people to shrug and just move on is limitless. Come 2021, or at the absolute latest 2022, nothing about how we live our lives will be any different than it was in 2019. The economy will be bad for 2-4 years at least, but that’s not a permanent change; recessions come and go.

37

Total agreement, alas. People will still crowd together carelessly. Pickpockets will return. Failed businesses will be bought cheap, but bidness will run on as supply meets demand. Any lasting changes will be products of technology and not this relatively brief contagion, same as the transformation of a century ago.

And lazy political powers won’t prepare foor the next pandemics which will appear at ever-shorter intervals. Get ready for the 2025 plague. :eek:

38

Without shopping malls and movie theaters, and then school closings, what will life be for our youth?

39

Probably like the trend that is already under way - they will live thru their phones and video games.

40

Related to above.

And then colleges. Already there are stories of many students expecting some sort of refund from colleges where they were paying at least partly for the on-campus experience. The professors. The labs. The whole campus experience. They arent getting that online and want their money back. So will fewer students choose to go to out of state colleges?

HERE is a site for a class action suit.

Will colleges keep offering sports scholarships if they have no teams playing?