I could be way off base here, because I am not a hunter, but… it doesn’t take very many deer to pay for a rifle and a chest freezer. I’d expect hunting to increase in a recession/depression.
I expect very few long-term changes. A decade from now won’t look dramatically different than it would have looked in the absence of COVID-19. Some trends that are already underway are going to accelerate, but they would have any way. More people will work from home, but that was already going to happen. People will go to the movies less, but that has more to do with the cheap 70" OLED screens we can pick up at Costco.
I am definitely not going to stop going to sporting events or blowing out birthday candles or shaking hands once the present danger is past, nor will most people.
I don’t foresee really major change. But a parallel might be the September 11 attacks, in terms of domestic life and economy anyway. It was often billed in media as ‘changing our lives forever’. A big overstatement, but there are various measures adopted which have turned into persistent rituals, the TSA when flying plus heightened security in various other settings. Again speaking of ordinary domestic life; people are more likely to think intelligence gathering or military operations following 9/11 have been a real negative or positive, few think those were a charade like many view the TSA thing. COVID probably actually has some potential to change international relations to the degree populists in countries heavily affected stir up hostility to China, again probably not dramatic. But I predict not literally nothing in 5 or 10 yrs from now, at least some noticeable costs society will incur it would not have, even if they are arguably not good insurance against a repeat. Also plenty of unprovable arguments ‘that would have happened exactly the same anyway/no not really’ for things like commerce moving to non-contact modes.
Also one quantitative change is known, higher debt levels as % of GDP, worldwide, than otherwise. Many people are convinced that has no effect on anything but that’s their opinion not a fact. Not everyone who thinks that is poorly informed though many are; anyway that doesn’t make it true. ‘The economy coming back’ as say measured by annual GDP surpassing previous nominal or even real peak may well happen in a couple of years (no gtee that it will), but under a higher debt load which will not not go back to the previous level easily. That could have a significant effect for a much longer time.
It takes more than just purchasing a rifle to become an effective hunter. Admittedly, hunting deer is pretty easy because of how overpopulated they are (owing to a reduction of both predators and expansion of suburbs) but if you suddenly had a large increase of hunters, the deer population would shrink and they would become far less populous and more skittish.
Also, in my experience, most people raised on corn-fed beef and industrially farmed chicken and pork do not take to the taste of most wild game and hunting wild game certainly isn’t going to replace the scale of factory-farmed meat that Western society consumes. From a protein-replacement standpoint, raising chickens and rabbits for meat makes a lot more sense, although I doubt most people are going to be willing to do that, especially if they have to twist Peter Rabbit’s in front of their children.
Sure, but the post I responded to posited a reduction in the number of hunters. I just don’t see that happening. I’m sure that if I lost my job I couldn’t just buy a rifle and go bag myself a deer, but I know people who hunt. I’d ask them to teach me!
I did a quick search and found this article, which mentions that hunting and fishing permits increased during the Great Recession.
Now, as the article points out, it could be that existing hunters had more time on their hands due to unemployment, but that kinda comes out the same. More people involved in hunting is going to bring more people in too. If my buddy who I sometimes go to movies with tells me he’s going hunting next weekend, maybe I’ll join him?
None of your other points are wrong (agreed that people are squeamish, that game doesn’t taste like farmed meat, and that hunting will not be on the scale of farming) I just don’t see them adding up to there being less hunting in a recession.
This is predicated upon COVID-19 being an experience that will wane and not recur with any predictability. We certainly could have had a pandemic earlier, but we didn’t. We’ll have one again, but they will be at irregular intervals. We won’t suddenly have a series of them because I really don’t think the world has changed all that much.
Shaking hands? Not a primary transmitter of the virus. You’re not protecting yourself by not shaking someone’s hand if you are breathing the same air as them. So go ahead, but it really doesn’t mean anything.
Modern hunting will never make a comeback in numbers. Many people don’t have access to land. Factory farming will continue to produce meat much cheaper and better tasting than you can hunter for it. Sure, there are lots of deer, but lots of them live on land that no one hunts. Deer love fringes more than the deep woods, they love to duck in and out of tree stands around exurbs. You’d have better luck trying to hit one with your car.
The “fragile” supply chain is not changing either. Fragile in quotes because the stories of farmers destroying crops and animals do not speak to a shortage of food, rather to food production that is so just in time and specifically geared to particular industries that any upset causes significant adjustments. But it’s not going to change. That’s all driven by capital, which is king in our economy. Won’t change.
Depression? The BIG one will be driven by economic events just like it was in 1929. By the economic structure of our society being too out of whack. COVID-19 isn’t going to fix that.
I disagree with most of that, except – as others have said – the changes that have already been underway for some time.
Live fans are the heart and soul of professional sports. That’s not going to change.
Shopping malls have been struggling for some time in the same way and for the same reasons as brick-and-mortar retailers, exacerbated by the loss of many big “anchor” department stores like Sears. But retailers are trying to reinvent themselves and many shopping malls in this area seemed to be doing OK before this crisis hit, with reasonably good traffic. There are no traditional indoor shopping malls in my immediate neighborhood, though there is one close by that is doing well, but the number of “shopping centers” in the form of clusters of retail stores is growing rapidly as the neighborhood expands.
I think the costs and inconvenience of travel and telecommunications advances are going to reduce travel for things like attending one single meeting, but probably not for multi-day events and conferences, which are an essential part of business and science.
The conventions are important PR for the parties and candidates and have the potential of raising enthusiasm among voters. They’ll probably continue – Lord knows there’s enough money in politics to support these extravagant events – though they may have to be virtual this year.
The NHL is not that big in the US compared to other major league sports, but in Canada, Rogers Communications – the country’s largest cable company that also owns a sports network – signed a 12-year deal a few years ago with the NHL worth over $5.2 billion for broadcast rights. I’d say that’s pretty serious money.
We are at 2. now, so we do not know what exactly 4 will look like, but my guess is it will not feel so normal anymore. Butterfly in Amazon might flapped it wings.
Hospital and nursing home visitation policies will be a lot stricter than they were pre-COVID19; it’ll be like how how airport security changed after 9/11.
Huh, I just realized I’ve been eating alot more Taco Bell than normal.
That’s very interesting, thanks! I consider myself fairly knowledge about history and while I’ve heard of the terms “Asian” and “Hong Kong” flu I don’t remember learning about either of those pandemics.
I don’t think much will change after the pandemic nor do I think it should. Close to 9 million people will die this year in the US without the pandemic and, while non-trivial, COVID is only a small part of it. We are social animals and being social is an important part of quality of life. I will attend sporting events when this is all over, at least until I get older and become more susceptible to diseases.
The one thing that might change for at least the next few years is that more people will get the yearly flu vaccine. I’ve been pretty haphazard myself but I’ll be more diligent.
I hope the anti-vax movement takes a hit. The current idiots will never leave their Good Ship Morons but hopefully fewer will board.
No. At most, for the Class of 2021. Everything will be back to normal one cycle after this ends.
Would you have turned down your dream school because of something that wasn’t happening anymore? Me neither.
That is certainly true; the economic effect is forever. Technically we are still suffering from the Depression; after all, we’d be richer had it never happened. I kind of took the OP as asking not whether permanent damage has been done (I mean, in that sense, 70,000 Americans are DEAD, and they’re not coming back) but whether people will fundamentally behave differently. They will not.
I am not even convinced that the way old age homes are cleaned and taken care of will change. They might for awhile, but ultimately the same corners will be cut as money talks louder and louder.
I dunno; if it’s the anti-bacterial sanitizers then I hope not; in the long run they’ll just make things worse. Alcohol-based sanitizers don’t lead to resistant microbes but they’re hell on your skin. Are there any other kinds? People should just wash their hands with regular soap and water.
Even the NFL pulls in a hell of a lot of money from ticket sales - about $1 billion a year for the NFL - but even that number understates the case. There’s more benefit to the spectator than just what they paid for tickets. Presence at a game tends to make a fan even more loyal. They buy more merchandise, and sports team merchandise is literally your customers paying you to advertise for you. Crowds also make the TV experience far more enjoyable.
Furthermore, sports stadiums are enormous investments, costing truly insane amounts of money. The idea that the team and the government owners of the stadium want it empty, is madness. They want that place filled to the brim, and they will sell the tickets as soon as the balance between public health and quarantine fatique allow it.
Social media did not exist, and the news coverage back then was not even a smidgen of what it is today.
America was still run by the Great Depression generation, and they sure as hell weren’t gonna let a little “cold” shut things down. It’s 2020 and we have a better understanding of pandemics and the majority of Americans are less willing to wholesale sacrifice the old and sick for a few Dow points.
As a result, this is the first time in 100 years America has seen a quarantine and a near-destruction of the economy within weeks. This will stick with us for decades to come.
I hope you are wrong about this. It is inconceivable to me that we won’t have contact tracing and quarantine procedures at the ready when there is the next outbreak of another pestilence.
Yeah I am also skeptical there will be massive long-term changes. There may be moderate changes: less handshaking, more hand washing, more teleconferencing but life in 2025 will probably look pretty similar to 2019.
There could be big permanent changes in a worst-case scenario where no effective vaccine is discovered and where the virus mutates too much for people to develop effective immunity but this is very unlikely.
Maybe you didn’t mean to come off so smug, but this sounds like a sportsball meme that people post on social media to make sure everyone knows that they are far too cool to watch sports and sneer at the unwashed masses who actually do care about such trivia.
Malls were definitely closing and those that survive will have to remake themselves. The era of the mall rat is over.
I’ve seen this movie before. Twice in adulthood, in fact. Once after 9/11 and once after the financial crisis. And yet, business travel continues. Multiple reasons. Some people are just natural social butterflies and often end up in managerial positions. Sales has always been a look them in the eye type of job. And important people like to get out and visit the peons in the regional offices, especially if it coordinates well with their leisure schedule.
Umm, ok. I’m sure there’s no benefit whatsoever in getting party activists, up and comers, current office holders, and political emerita together. There’s a lot more to conventions than just someone holding the state placard during the roll call saying, ‘Mr Chairman, the state of Florida with our beautiful beaches which will never be closed because of socialism casts 100 votes for …’
Business trips have never been primarily about business meetings. That’s why they have them in resort communities. It’s a perk of office that’s got lots of tax advantages for what would be luxury expenditures. Sure, there are hard working executive in the world. Percentages are probably about the same as for any other large demographic segment. Retiring Senators, and Congresscritters get appointed to boards all the time. They come sit in a meeting four times a year, for an hour, and attend “working dinners” with the people they used to write laws “regulating.” The bloated salary isn’t enough to keep them interested, so you have junkets.
I don’t know why otherwise intelligent posters like RickJay think that things will “not change”. Lets just look at the major events of this century thus far, the War on Terror and the Financial crises.
Each of these had profound effects. Taken together they prematurely ended the United States unipolar moment and led to the rise of China. The Financial Crises led to the rise of the right and left-wing ideologies in most of the Western world.
This pandemic is by far the most important event of the century thus far. It will have long-lasting consequences.