How do you mean?
I kind of wonder about this. A mason was night killed on the first night. The Vig killed the Detective the second night. On the second day, the Vig and 2 Masons were forced to claim. The Doctor and the Beat Cop both had to claim a couple of days later. Everything that possibly could have gone wrong for the Town did go wrong, and they’re still in it, so I wonder how balanced this game really is.
Well the advice I was given when I started putting together the game was “assume that everything will go wrong, if you can still get the game to 6 days under the worst conditions you balanced it well.” But who knows, you can never really know how well a game is balanced until it starts running, becuse the human element of the players gets involved. My only real regret is not figuring out a way to get the slack out of the beginning of the game. Days 1 & even 2 were fine, but I think the game has run about 3 days longer than it should have.
[spoiler]I’ll spoiler this, so no quote-boxes. Brewha said “The mafia couldn’t manufactuer a lynch on their own. They would have to join a townsperson in voting for another townsperson” after having said everyone who voted for Pygmy Rugger must have been town.
So. Pleonast (known town) voted for Lakai as well as brewha. Plus three votes gets us 5 votes and a lynch. They didn’t go for that option, so Lakai is Mafia too (they didn’t go for a two-townies option because it wasn’t a two-townies option)
They didn’t go for brewha (where they could get a tie, at least, supposing Fretful Porpentine is town), so brewha is probably mafia (though Fretful Porpentine may be mafia, so they didn’t go for him)
So: Lakai is Mafia. Leaves either Fretful Porpentine or brewha as mafia. [/spoiler]
OK, I’m now prepared to make an absolute prediction, and go for NAF’s no-prize: There are currently exactly two Mafiosos left, and they are Lakai and Fretful Porpentine. In almost every scenario where the Mafia didn’t win last night, Lakai is Mafia, combined with his post just before Pygmy’s lynching that the only way that Pygmy could be Mafia was if the Mafia were brain-dead (he conveniently omitted the possibility that he was Mafia, too, in his otherwise-sensible analysis). So that’s Lakai. And now Fretful is pushing heavily on the idea that there are three Mafia left, which is only possible if Fretful herself is one of them (and if brewha and Lakai are the other two, which I don’t think is really plausible), and is also absolutely refusing to block-vote, which should be essential if there were three left. There are two possible explanations for this behaviour, but I don’t think that Fretful is that dense, which means that she’s deliberately trying to confuse the Town.
As for which of them is the Godfather, I neither know nor care. The Godfather isn’t actually all that significant a role: All he has going for him is that he’s immune to night-kills and investigations. Being the nominal leader of the Mafia doesn’t matter, since they all know and trust each other, and whoever has the good ideas can still lead. That said, I think that the odds slightly favor Lakai over Fretful for the position, since even if a Beat Cop is highly unreliable, it’s still some information, and I don’t think a Godfather truly has any tells distinct from other Mafia, despite what others say.
Interesting analysis. It makes a certain ammount of sense. I think that by the end of this day you will know if you were right or not. I have a feeling about who the lynchee is going to be, but the town is nothing if not unpredictable when it comes to lynches.
Creeps in and removes the Cloak of the Lurker.
Hi folks.
Once I saw the first game pop up, I guessed that this was the thing most likely to get me to sign up, and so it has proved.
Not wishing to offer theories on who is what (because they change so often, and because I was badly wrong about the SK). I did think, based on my playing and GMing experience in other places, that the game was too large; the slowdown was inevitable.
The larger number of killing roles helped by reducing the size rapidly though. Now the endgame is nigh, and I will watch with interest.
Actually, pima’s investigation came back with a pro-town role(probably Beat Cop, but he hasn’t confirmed this), not vanilla town. So the investigation was almost certainly wrong.
Interestingly enough the GF has held a surprising amount of sway over the rest of the mafia (at least for the last few days). I think this may be because the GF is running the mafia boards and holds the tie-breaker vote. But I agree there would be no tells above and beyond the normal mafia tell.
I’d like to add to this. He/She held a lot of sway in my mind because he/she is doing a fantastically kickass job, both in the game and on the mafia board. I’ve got huge respect for the game that the Gawdperson has played.
I think it has more to do with the fact that the GF is flippin’ brilliant, and less because they’re the GF.
Fair point for both Pygmy and Aguecheek, and I would very much agree, the GF is “flippin’ brilliant”.
When Monkey was picked as your night kill my jaw hit the floor. And that was all the GF, if only their powers were being used for good instead of evil.
Who said their powers weren’t being used for good? We know you’ve been cheering for the town this whole time, though. 
Kind of like it’s your own personal little “colony” or something. 
I hate to be the one to tell you this, but your team is playing for the dark side. Nothing wrong with that, I have alway sorta liked evil myself, plus I have always had a soft spot for the mafia team in any game. But…my heart actually is with the pure evil of the SK. Any game I see that has an SK, I always hold out hope that he might make it to the end. Maybe its because the role is supposed to be almost impossible to win with, but it has always struck a chord with me.
But I can’t play favorites in this game, you are all equal in my eyes.
In that case, I think you’ll like one of the soon to be roles Malacandra drummed up for the next game. Until it kills you.
If I survive to see the light of day 2 I will consider the game a rousing success.
Rysto, you are correct.
Wouldn’t that be a twisted spin if Lakai was actually the second beat cop, and has kept it secret until this point. It wouldn’t help in identifying the GF, but you think he’d have investigated enough times to be able to FoS the other Mafia.
Don’t forget about the millers, they haven’t role claimed yet either.
Ok, I am obviously getting punchy.
Haha, you think Kat lied? She’s not the Vigilante Detective, she’s actually the Beat Cop Miller. Come on, NAF, am I close?