The season is slowly ending, and I’ve pretty much resigned myself into thinking my team, the Atlanta Braves, are not going to make the playoffs. That June REALLY killed us. However everytime I start thinking of that, they do something to get my hopes up again, like scoring 5 runs in the bottom of the 10th to win against the Marlins.
However, if the Braves don’t make it to the playoffs, I really hope that the Marlins can take the wildcard, then go on to the WS and sweep the Yankees in 4. Just something about a team with a $15 million payroll defeating a team with a $200 million payroll.
But the Braves aren’t totally elimintated yet, we can still make it to the playoffs if we go 12-1 in the next 13 games or so… I still believe we can do it… <CHOP><CHOP><CHOP>
Liriano going down was a blow for Minnesota - except they went 23-15 in the six weeks since he last got a decision on Aug 7th. That includes taking 5 of 6 vs Detroit and 4 of 6 vs Chicago. In fact, the headscratchers include losing 2 of three to KC and losing 3 of 4 vs Toronto. Winning 5 of 7 against those two teams, as we normally would, and Minnesota, not Detroit, would now be the division leader already. Since July our longest losing streak is three games (twice), while we’ve had two winning streaks of 8 and one of 11. Getting Liriano would have been great for the playoffs, but losing him isn’t such a blow; they’ve won without him. Plus, his replacements are starting to step up: Silva’s pitched well his last three starts, and Garza, Baker, and Bonser are improving. I expect the Twins will trade one of these guys for a bat during the offseason.
Detroit, meanwhile, hasn’t one more than three games in a row in over a month. Their longest W streak since July is…four games. If Detroit didn’t have an absolute cupcake schedule over the last two weeks (last nine games vs Orioles, Royals, Blue Jays), I’d say the’d be lucky to make the playoffs altogether. Now, however, I think they’ll hold on. They might need to win at least two of three vs Chicago to keep their division title, however.
The loss of Liriano is a blow for the post season. He was a very dangerous pitcher to have against the Yanks or A’s and the Twins will need to get through one or both to get to the World Series.
I’m not sure where you get the idea that the Toronto Blue Jays should be some sort of pushover. The team is 79-70 in what is generally considered the toughest division in baseball. If you expect to win 5 of every 7 that you play against Toronto, you’ll come up disappointed almost every time.
And have you even compared Detroit’s “cupcake schedule” with Minnesota’s schedule for the last two weeks of the season?
So both teams play the Chicago White Sox three times—all even there.
Detroit plays Kansas City 6 times and Baltimore once, while Minnesota plays KC 4 times and Baltimore 3 times. KC’s record is 58-92, while Baltimore’s is 64-85—not exactly much of a difference there.
Then Detroit plays 3 against Toronto, while Minnesota plays 3 against the Red Sox. Boston is currently only one and a half games ahead of the Blue Jays, so these matchups hardly constitute a decisive advantage for the Tigers.
Finally, Detroit plays 6 of its last 13 games at home, while the Twins play 7 of their last 13 at home.
It seems to me that if Detroit has a “cupcake schedule,” then the Twins are also in the sweet bakery business over the last two weeks of the season.
Uh, any division where the leader has a 10-game lead is not the most difficult in baseball. That moniker goes to…yep, the AL Central, which has three teams with more than 84 wins. Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland all have winning records against the East. All four AL West teams have winning records against the East. Only New York from the East, and LAA from the West, have winning records against the Central.
Oh, Minnesota’s schedule isn’t that hard. My point was the easy schedule is the only reason I think Detroit will hold on over the last two weeks. Detroit’s won just 11 times over the last 30 games, in which time their division lead has gone from 8 games to 1. They’re folding like a badly made souffle. But that’s why I said they have to win at least two of three vs Chicago this weekend: if they lose the lead, Minnesota probably won’t relenquish the lead because they also have a fairly easy schedule.
PS: If Morneau isn’t voted MVP, there is something seriously, seriously wrong. Ortiz and Dye probably won’t be on playoff teams, so historically they probably won’t get much serious consideration. Jeter hits for average, but Mauer - playing a tougher position - has a higher batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage.
Morneau, meanwhile has 20 more home runs, 30 more RBIs, and strikes out less - and he’s doing it in a considerably weaker lineup compared to the Yankees. Take away Jeter, and the Yankees still win 95 games, give or take. Take away Morneau, and the Twins would be lucky to play .500 baseball.
Would I take Morneau over Jeter if I were starting a team? Probably not - I fu*&ing hate the Yankees, but Jeter’s a stud. He’s a leader and a winner. But this isn’t ‘who’s the better overall player’ award, it’s ‘who was the most valuable to his team’. And that is clearly Morneau this year.
Really, the strongest case for most valuable player would be for Johan Santana - the Twins are like 25 games over .500 when he starts, .500 when anybody not named Santana starts. But pitchers almost never get any serious consideration, and I don’t expect that to change this year, even though it probably should.
Sorry that is not quite true, take Jeter out of the current line-up and they would still win 95 or so is valid. Take Jeter out of the June & July team that had no Matsui, Sheffield & Cano, a slumping Giambi and a lost and depress A-Rod. No, I think the Yanks would have been in terrible shape. We might not have been doing well enough treading water to have held off making a bad trade and we still had a strong enough bargaining position to get Bobby Abreau on the cheap bacause of Jeter.
Jeter saved the Yankee season this year. I think Morneau and Jeter are the two best candidates, but I do not think you can so easily dismiss his value to the team this year. The Yanks are 10 in front because Jeter kept the team going and Boston had a huge plague of injuries that wrecked their season.
What’s he making, 10…15 million per? I understand what you’re saying, but that’s still mighty expensive for an aging-before-his-time slugger who may or may not have falsified his age.
If I were Stat Boy (and wasn’t a mighty Yankee slurper) and had to give a point to an argument, I’d give it to DragonAsh. Morneau gets the MVP because Jeter gets the batting title and because Morneau plays a harder position and means more to his team. Jeter means a lot to the robot Yankees. Jeter can console himself with the batting title.
LOUNE, please stop embarrassing yourself. Jeter plays a tougher position than Morneau. it is the catcher Mauer who you are confusing with Morneau. Morneau is a First Baseman.
Good joke, but **LOUNE ** and I are pretty friendly. This is just good natured ribbing. He insults the Yankees almost non-stop and occasionally I deign to smack him down a little.
Young whippersnapper, get off my postseason!
Morneau is a very fine player but that statement is plainly ridiculous. The Twins are 27 games over .500. There have probably not been five individual seasons in the entire history of baseball that would turn a 74-73 team into an 88-61 team. Take Morneau away from the Twins and they’d very likely be just a hair behind Chicago and still in solid contention.
So Morneau is more valuable because the Twins have a worse record? That’s… nuts. It just doesn’t make any sense; how can Morneau be better by virtue of his team being LESS successful, relatively speaking?
Aside from your subjective opinion, what makes Morneau “more valuable to his team” than Jeter? Isn’t it kind of silly to say that Jeter is less VALUABLE because the Red Sox and Blue Jays have played worse than the Tigers and White Sox? Because, really, that’s the claim you’re making. That the Twins will probably make the playoffs, but only by a little, while the Yankees will make the playoffs by a lot has nothing at all to do with Justin Morneau’s value.
This is all ignoring the fact that Jermaine Dye has had a far, far more valuable season than Morneau and it seems kind of strange to deny an award to a guy on a team that’s going to be in it to the bitter end because his team’s pitching was not quite up to snuff to win, say, 97 games instead of 94. Dye is substantially superior to Morneau in every respect; he’s gotten on base a little more, he’s hit for a lot more power, and he’s a much more valuable defensive player.
I agree wholeheartedly that pitchers SHOULD be able to win the MVP, and voters who refuse to vote for them should lose their vote permanently.
Santana has a pretty interesting case.
He’s pitched 220 innings this year. He’ll get maybe 4 more starts so will likely end up with about 250 innings. So far, by my rough calculations, he’s saved about 50 runs more than the average pitcher would, and by year’s end will be around 55-60. That’s a huge, huge number, comparable to the best hitters, although I think the top candidates like Dye and Jeter have done a little more. There’s still some time left in the season.
Captain Crunch* hit the Homer to put the Yanks ahead and we added on later. Magic number is down to Five!
BTW: that puts Jeter, the 2 hitter, up to 95 RBIs to go with his 109 Runs and 32 steals out of 35 attemps.
The Dodgers game last night was quite spectacular. The Dodgers tie the game in the ninth with four back-to-back home runs, give up a run in the 10th and then win on a walk off two-run homer by Garciapara. This amazing feat has not been done since 1964.
**Ian O’Connor ** makes the case for Jeter’s MVP better than I tried to the other night, but he does it along the same lines as I did. If anyone is interested here is the article. http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060919/COLUMNIST03/609190332/1035/SPORTS0101
Highlight from the article.
Some very good friends of mine actually left in the middle of the 9th inning. I would be kicking them now if they hadn’t already kicked themselves.
I’ll be there Friday and Sunday, and I can assure you there will be no leaving early. I was dissappointed, however, that the Padres who were interviewed after the game didn’t sound nearly as deflated as I’d hoped. Stupid professionals…
I read an article recently, I think on CNNSI, that said Jeter would win because a) everyone knows him 'cause he plays on the Yankees, b) voters will want to give him his ‘lifetime achievement award’, and c) the Twins have three legitimate candidates (Mauer, Morneau, Santana), which means the votes from sportswriters that actually know about the Twins will probably be split up among the three. The article said that Jeter was in no way the ‘most valuable’ to his team compared to Dye or any of the three players, so he probably shouldn’t win - but that never stopped the voters before.
RickJay - take away Jeter, and the Yankees still win their division. They had a horrible weekend in Boston - and still have a 10-game lead. Take away any one of Mauer, Morneau, or Santana, and I don’t think anyone can realistically say that the Twins would be in a pennant race. And it’s not ‘punishing’ Jeter because the Twins were ‘less successful’ - as we saw above, the Twins played in the much more difficult division.
The top candidates should be (in my order of preference) Santana, Dye, Morneau, Mauer, Jeter. Santana won’t win cause he’s a pitcher (he should win the Cy Young, however). Dye would be the much more deserving candidate, but he won’t win because I don’t think the White Sox will make it into the playoffs - they’re folding almost as bad as the Tigers - four straight losses, and now 4.5 games out in the WC race. If the voters look at who’s most valuable on the field - not some intangible, airy-fairy ‘leadership’ ‘keeps his head down and plays’ crap, the award should go to Morneau.
