And the MEts are tied for first! I just don’t know if it a good sign or not that it happened on 7/17
That game was ours for the taking, we just kept giving it away. Fucking Cordero. He’s so damn up and down. I think we overpaid for him, but that’s the way it goes these days.
His fastball was straight as an arrow last night. Dammit!
And the Reds sink a little deeper…
And we’ve got Bronson Arroyo pitching tonight…uh-oh. Things could get ugly fast and early!
My partner is at the Dodgers/D-backs game tonight.
I’m going to watch it on MLB tv tonight.
Ugh, what is wrong with this picture.
Go D-backs!!! I can’t wait for my move to Arizona next month!
OK, I’m glad I didn’t go to the D-backs last night. Guess what? When you leave 11 men on base, you lose the game.
We need to take the next 2. Chicago is up next and that is not a team I’d be eager to face.
I agree there’s no way the Dodgers should have won that game last night. First, you catch one of our better starters on a horrendous night where he only goes two innings, and then you surrender four home runs to one of the most powerless teams in the Majors – that has to be pretty embarrasing. Not that I’m trying to rub it in or anything. 
But I wouldn’t count on getting 7 runs tonight against Billingsley if I were you.
Yes, it’s just against the A’s, but the Yankees have started the 2nd half 3-0. Pettitte pitched an gem today. They’re hanging in close enough to still have some hope. If Pettitte, Mussina and Chamberlain can keep it up, they might still have a decent season. The next three are at home vs. the Twins. That’ll be a tougher test.
Quite the smackdown from Verlander to the Orioles today. A one hitter until the 9th inning is pretty beefy.
He gave up two walks and then was replaced by the closer with one out to end the game.
Pettitte pitched a great game today, but what a bizarre top of the ninth. The second out came on what looked like an easy fly to right but Abreu was fighting the sun and dropped the ball. He grabbed the ball and rushed a throw to 2nd as the lead runner was now racing there. The ball flew way over Jeter’s head but thankfully A-Rod was backing him up and got a quick relay back to Jeter who just beat the runner.
The A’s then had Rajai Davis ran for Bobby Crosby sent in a pinch runner for Crosby. He was promptly thrown out by Molina to end the game. Jose Molina had been incredible throwing out runners this year.
The one thing I missed is why on earth was a pinch runner put in for their Short Stop?
The Cards just took their third from the Padres. They had to come from behind to win all three games. Today, after a blown save, they won it on a bottom-of-the-ninth grand-freakin’-slam. By…
Aaron Miles.
Aaron Miles?
I mean, he’s swinging for a .323 average this year, but this is just his third HR of the year. They walked Schumaker to load the bases with one out to get to Miles (which struck me as kinda dumb, since even if Miles strikes out, you’re forcing yourself to face Ludwick, but I digress). Anyway… Aaron Miles! Wow.
Just 2 games back of the Cubs!
A) You don’t know how much I envy your franchise as a Reds fan, and
B) Thank you for Walt Jocketty…I have high hopes that we can emulate your success in recent years, minus the drunk-manager-passed-out-behind-the-wheel thingie.
After watching the last two games against the D-Backs, I suddenly begin to understand why Arizona has failed to run away with the division. Lyons, the closer, nearly blew a 3-0 lead in the 9th last night, giving up two runs and ending the game on a fly ball with men on second and third. Tonight, with Arizona leading 4-1 going into the 9th after a brilliant performance by Brandon Webb, Lyons gives up FIVE runs, and the Dodgers skate with a 6-5 victory.
I’d love to believe it was a sign of the Dodgers’ offense coming alive, but I’m more of a realist than that. Regardless, we’re tied for 1st once again. And I believe our next three series are against NL West opponents. August is going to be fun.
I don’t think any team wants to win the NL West.
Terrible weekend for the D-backs. They should have won on Friday, but handed the game to the Dodgers. Saturday, they escaped luckily. Sunday, they blew it in the 9th. Young teams can be inconsistent, but the D-backs haven’t been good since mid-May.
I guess either the Dodgers or D-backs will manage to get enough wins together to win the division. Unfortunately, based on what I see today, either team would be swept in the playoffs.
However, I thought the Mets were out of it a month ago. Still a lot of baseball to go.
God I hate baseball!
The Reds should have swept the Mets, and instead split a four gamer, the two losses both close games where the Reds blew leads.
Fuck fuckity fuck fuck fuck!
I wouldn’t know anything about teams blowing leads
Passed out? He was merely resting. Those late games can be tiring for an older gentleman.
I was a little hasty when I typed last nght. I didn’t realize the whole series of events. So, it’s the bottom of the ninth in a tied game, one out, and Pujols gets a single, then advances to third on a wild pickoff attempt. First and second are open, and you’re looking at the next four batters: Molina (.306), Schumaker (.293), Miles (.323), and Ludwick (.294). An unenviable situation, I grant you. Now, I guess only the lead runner matters, but you give an intentional pass to both Molina and Schumaker so you can face Miles and Ludwick. Why? Maybe there was some kind of complex matchup calculation going on, but I don’t get it. Are they trying to increase their odds of getting a double play? They figure Aaron Miles, all 5’8"/185lbs of him, is more likely to ground out than Molina or Schumaker? Maybe, but it’s not like Molina and Schu are real power threats either. Seems weird to me.
By the way, in the June thread, when I was stumping for Molina as an All-Star someone dared to claim that his .300 average was a fluke. Well, here we are in July, and he’s still hitting .300. Only 4 HR, but still. Neener-neener-neener!
Maybe I’m missing something in the scenario, but isn’t that kind of the only logical move? Loading the bases allows either a double play or a forceout at the plate. If you DON’T walk the bases loaded, then you’re forced to play the infield in when Molina hits, thereby making him a .370 hitter, to cut down Pujols on a tag play at the plate or at least stop him from trying, and then you still have to get another out. Since Molina and Schumaker don’t matter, and are not so much worse than Miles that it matters, it seems to me the best move is to give your infielders the chance at either a double play or an easier out at home.
Hmmm. What I’m missing is a very good understanding of baseball strategy. So, bear with me a minute longer.
OK, a long enough fly ball ends it in any event. So, say you pull the infield in to hold Pujols at third. Now, you’ve got three outcomes when Molina comes up:
- Molina hits it hard enough to end the game
- Molina hits it far enough to reach base, but shallow enough to keep Pujols at 3rd
- Molina reaches on a ground ball because you’re holding Pujols instead of throwing to 1st
- Molina gets out.
In scenarios 2 and 3, you’re no worse off than if you’d walked him. By pitching to him, you at least have the chance to get one of the two outs you need. Sure, he could end it, but you have to give two guys the chance to end it eventually. Why not at least try the all-but-intentional walk – throw him junk hoping he’ll reach for something?
That’s four outcomes, and #2 makes no sense and #3 wouldn’t happen.
If you pitch to Molina, there are four possible outcomes:
- Molina strikes the ball in a manner that makes it irrelevant where the infield is playing, such as a long fly ball, a hit that would be a hit no matter what, etc. Pujols scores, game over. (Or something happens, like a wild pitch, that scores the runner.)
- Molina makes an out in a manner in which it doesn’t matter where the infield is playing, like a strikeout or a popup; Pujols holds, two out.
- Molina reaches base in a manner that is equivalent to an intentional walk, such as a regular walk or being hit by the pitch.
- Molina hits a ground ball.
In cases 1 or 2 or 3 it really doesn’t make a great deal of difference what you do, and it doesn’t really matter if you’re pitching to Molina or Miles. But in #4 it very much does. With less than two out and the winning run at third you MUST play the infield in; if they play at normal depth Pujols will break for home the instant the ball’s down, and it’s going to be remarkably difficult to throw Pujols out at home. Only by playing in do you have a chance of throwing out Pujols or holding him and throwing out Molina. (If an infielder gets the ball he’s got lots of time to hold Pujols and still get Molina out at first; Molina runs like a parking garage.)
But playing the infield in makes it much, much likelier that a ground ball will get through for a base hit; you are effectively turning Molina from being an okay hitter into being Ty Cobb. A major league player’s batting average soars when batting with the infield in.
By walking the bases loaded to pitch to a hitter of effectively similar skills, you don’t change Outcomes 1 or 2 at all. You do, however, make Outcome 4 much more favourable. Now, instead of being forced to hold the runner or throw him out for a tag play, the infielders can turn a double play and end the inning if the ground ball is favourably positioned, or they can come home and FORCE Pujols out, which is much likelier to be a successful play than the tag play.
Outcome 3 is worse with the bases loaded, since an uninterntional walk or HBP loses the game. However, I think you will find it’s likelier that Miles (or most hitters) will hit a ground ball than draw a walk or get hit by a pitch.
I’m inclined to agree with the all-but-intentional walk attempt, just because I hate intentional walks and they’re usually stupid, but in this case, the all-but-intentional walk is risky; a wild pitch is a disaster, so the pitcher has to come in to at least some extent.
There’s no strategy here that’s a good one, really; the winning run at third, less than two out, you’ve got a better than even chance of losing no matter what you do. Setting up the force plays, to my mind, is a logical response to make the odds as good as possible, though.
That isn’t really the question though. The question is will Miles be more likely hit a ground ball that results in a double play (or at least out at home) or reach base via walk/hbp/hit on a grooved pitch to avoid a walk. Walk a guy and you lose is a very dangerous place to put a pitcher. I might have walked Molina, but I wouldn’t have walked both. I probably would just have faced Molina though, and taken my chances. It certainly possible that there was no good answer here.
RickJay, I appreciate your answer. What you wrote makes a lot of sense and helps me understand the play better. As far as my #2 option, what I was envisioning was a short line drive single where the outfielder gets to it quick enough to be able to throw the runner out at the plate. Pujols wouldn’t be “held”, I guess, since he’s an aggressive baserunner and he’s going to try to score, but you might have a good chance to get him. Probably not a likely scenario, I suppose.