If you know where to lay the money count me in! I’m in the camp that believes the Final Five are very, very old. I think they laid low for a while gently steering technology and society from the sidelines. As technology began to naturally advance they steered it towards Cylon compatibility. Once achieved they uploaded the Cylon software and presto: the new breed of Cylon was born 40 years ago. Naturally they would make sure the new Centurians will be loyal first to the Final Five. Part of the software upload was a directive to make a new batch of skin jobs (along with blueprints) and our new batch of seven skinjobs were born. I think you’re right FinnAgain, there will come a point where Tigh and a Centurian meet and we’ll see where loyalties lie.
A few things:
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The fact that there is argument about character motivations and morality is one of the great things about the show. Can you imagine anybody debating “evil or not?” about the Cardassian torturer played by David Warner in the “Chain of Command” episodes of TNG? (Incidentally, the one “is-he-evil-or-not” Cardassian in Trek, Garak, is from DS9, on which Ron Moore was an exec.) Everybody sees events differently; what is absolutely, unquestionably “evil” for one person may be “brutally necessary but understandable given the situation” to another. That’s why this show is so fantastic.
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Re the Orion constellation: It’s true that it will get weird and funky pretty fast if you move laterally across its “face,” or toward it; but won’t it hold its configuration for longer if you move directly away from it? I mean, imagining a line from the perceived center of the figure straight to our solar system, and then continuing onward. Eventually it’ll distort, but not as fast as if you head off in other directions. Yes? So the Cylons are in the neighborhood, but they could still be a ways off.
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Something else randomly occurred to me while watching this episode. The prophecy in Pythia that everyone has pinned to Roslin says that “a dying leader will show the way to Earth” or some such. But what if that’s a mistranslation, or a misinterpretation of the text? Roslin may have a terminal disease, but Starbuck frakking died. Depending on the historical and linguistic provenance of the verse in question, it’s hardly a stretch to think that the prophecy might actually refer to her instead. If the show decides to pick up this thread and run with it, I’m gonna look like a genius.

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Like FinnAgain, I was definitely struck (heh) by Tory’s display of Cylon strength, backhanding Cally. We all just take for granted that Caprica Six, Leoben, etc, can kick our human characters’ asses, but up to now we haven’t seen any indication that Tigh, Tyrol, etc have been similarly gifted. Which makes me wonder about the scene in the preview, where the Six in the brig is walloping Tigh. Shouldn’t that be a fair fight?
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No Baltar this episode. Didn’t really think about it, either, until the glimpse in the preview for next week.
And one last thing:
Best use of “fungible” ever. 
Yes, this is true. I saw somebody using Celestia and it looks to be about 20 - 30 LY in the direction you mention.
There. Are. FOUR! Lights.
…what, sorry? I lost track of things for a moment. 
That’s all right. For a moment, I truly thought I saw … five lights.
That’s pretty much the point I was trying to make. The show is intentionally blurring the lines so that it isn’t clear–and that’s what makes it great.
I think Starbuck’s painting what she remembers about the way to Earth - remember them talking about “A trinary star; a comet; a gas giant with rings…” etc. as signposts? Those were the glimpses she remembers seeing on her way to earth, and her new picture seems to show a trinary star, at least.
(Wonder if the trinary star is supposed to be the Centauri system. And I have no cites, but ISTR from my astronomy readings that you’d have to get awfully far away from the solar system in order for the constellations to change appreciably. Granted, for a civilization with FTL capabilities, “awfully far away” can happen in a blink, but just because Orion’s in the background doesn’t necessarily mean they’re in our 'hood, so to speak.)
Two things I noticed in this one.
First of all, those believing that there’s ‘only circumstantial evidence’ that The Four aren’t Cylons - look how hard Callie flew from Tori’s backhand.
Second, looks like Tori has no problem killing to protect the four. I wonder how quickly the Chief will put it together. He’s not that dumb.
Also, I agree that Tori’s actions are justifiable from her point of view. Of course it wasn’t all that much about saving the kid - she’d already done that. She was acting to save herself and the other Four, not just because she’s a homicidal maniac.
-Joe
But, the Centurions would no doubt have encountered Tigh, Tyrol, Anders and Tori during the New Caprica occupation. I assume it was a Centurion that plucked out Tigh’s eye, but we may never know.
If the Centurions bow down before any of the final five, it would have to be a recent change I think. They certainly put on a good show of trying to kill Tyrol back on Kobol or wherever it was.
Those things in the painting reminded me of those ships from the original series where they meet an angel or prophet or something like that.
Cavil says he is a machine, and talks up the “we’re just machines” party line to Boomer… but he’s just as hypocritical as everybody else on this show. He’s using his wiles to get into Boomer’s pants for his own benefit, just like he did to Ellen Tigh back on New Caprica.
Not much of a “total machine mentality.” You want to see that, look to the Centurions.
I would think that either they were substituted during the occupation, or whatever made them know they were Cylons only then made them recognizable to other Cylons.
I’m pretty sure that was supposed to be a Six, but it was just a fairly unconvincing stand-in.
Oh, and something I haven’t seen mentioned, but I expect to see being fairly big…
D’Anna is coming back, likely due to rogue efforts by the Cylons who are probably now losing the civil war. And she knows who the fifth one is.
I wonder if that’s how the audience is going to find out who it is.
-Joe
I’m strongly leaning against Cylons substituting or copying (or fungible-ating?) humans, even if it appears their technology should be capable of it. Don’t like! 
I’m onboard with something having changed which now makes the final five recognizable to Raiders & Centurions.
The question is whether it’s magic or science.
Anything sufficiently advanced will be close to magic anyways. Why quibble?
-Joe
Wow, Arthur C. Clark must be turning in his grave.
You sure? I thought that was just Cavil’s lie to get the rebellious basestars into the trap. No?
I’m searching for a wan fank, er, explanation as to why Tigh can apparently have a youth, be tortured by Cylons, not be recognized by Cylons and still be a Cylon. 
I don’t like the substitution idea much, either. It opens that dreaded scenario, “Cylon of the Week”.
It could go either way. The Cavils certainly want the issue to be considered closed, but if he was reporting the desires of the other models accurately, they are unlikely to let it rest there. Especially now that the Cavils have turned on their brothers and sisters, who will need every ally they can get.
But he wasn’t reporting accurately, right? He was just feeding them a line so that they’d think they were safe and weren’t walking into an ambush.
Obviously, the magic of Bob Dylan set him free. 