[QUOTE=Lemur866]
OK, what about Santa Claus?
Either Santa Claus exists, or he does not. And you can chose to either believe in Santa Claus, nor not believe in Santa Claus.
If Santa Claus exists, and you believe in him, you get presents.
If Santa Claus exists, and you don’t believe in him, you get a lump of coal.
If Santa Claus does not exist and you believe in him, you get nothing.
If Santa Claus does not exist and you don’t believe in him, you get nothing.
The way to hit the positive payout in the matrix above is to believe in Santa Claus. Therefore, it is illogical not to believe in Santa Claus.
Can you see anything wrong with my logic? Can you explain why my logic is flawed for the Santa Claus case, but if I substituted Jesus for Santa Claus it would suddently make sense?
[/QUOTE]
The difference between your example and the god question is that you are stating premises that are not known in relation to god or gods.
If your premises are known to be correct, then the optimal thing to do is to believe in Santa (assuming it is possible to just decide to believe in something).
Contrastingly, there are no known facts about the optimal strategy in relation to believing in a god or gods. Reworking your example using a god:
Either there is a god or there are several or there are none. And you can chose to either believe in a god or more than one god or not believe in a god or gods.
[ul]If god or gods exist, and you believe in one or more of them you may go to heaven when you die or you may go to hell or you may get turned into the Great Aadvark of Traal, we have no clue.
[li]If god or gods exist, and you don’t believe in one or more of them, you may go to heaven when you die or you may go to hell or you may get turned into the Great Aadvark of Traal, we have no clue.[/li][li]If no gods exist and you believe in one or more of them, you get nothing.[/li][li]If no gods exist and you don’t believe in one or more of them, you get nothing.[/ul][/li]
The way to hit the positive payout in the matrix above I’m fucked if I know. Therefore, no logical decision as to whether to have a belief or not can be derived