Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden denies)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html

I love Joe Biden. He’s a better president than even Obama.

My top priority is ensuring Donald Trump NEVER becomes president again. If dropping Biden and getting Pete Buttgieg or Gavin Newsome would win the presidency, that’s fine.

Joe only ran to stop Trump. He presumed in 2016, no need to run since anyone would beat Trump. He deserves a medal.

I’m voting Democratic no matter what.

If Biden drops out (a big if), it will have to be Harris. For political and practical reasons - politically, for the party that relies on women and Black voters, ditching or passing over the first Black woman VP would be disastrous. Practically, Harris is the only one who could legally inherit and use the existing campaign apparatus and money.

Oh, boy. Harris would lose.

Is this how we get the first woman president?

Somehow I feel cheated.

I’ll take it tho’.
I like Harris.

Or maybe she’d win. Or maybe Biden will stay in and win.

Any certainty in predicting political events is just ludicrous. I’m continually shocked that so many Americans think they have any better than a wild guess level of skill in predicting political events.

Now that Biden has King-like powers, couldn’t he say its OK for two people from the same state on the democratic ticket? Harris for President and Newsome for Vice-president.

Gretchen from Mich. For VP.

Killer ticket.

It’s not just about the presidency, it’s about the downballot races too. Those are almost as important.

Newsom, Bullock, Pritzker would all be good. I don’t think Klobuchar would be suitable given the stories about her being abusive against aides and her comments about yearning for unchecked power.

It’s worth mentioning again the severity of the crisis. Around this time four years ago, Biden was consistently polling 8% ahead of Trump - and yet he ended up only barely surviving, eking out victory against Trump by the skin of his teeth, dodging a huge bullet. If 23,000 voters in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin had flipped the other way, Trump would be president right now.

So if even an 8% lead in the summer translated to only a razor-thin victory in November by EVs (despite Biden winning the popular vote by 5%,) how badly does Biden currently trailing in polls portend?

At least many are finally starting to come out and say that the emperor’s clothes aren’t real.

At least this is injecting some excitement into this race.

This would be amazing. She dominated Michigan election two years ago and it would assure Michigan to be blue. I think it is 50-50 at best for Joe right now.

Your certainty that Biden dropping out necessarily improves Democratic chances doesn’t make it factual. It’s just a guess.

Dont have time to read artile, but the subhead includes

A White House official said the claim was false

This is consistent with all of the informed reporting I’ve read, too. Harris is the only logical choice because she is the only one who can take over the Biden/Harris coffers.

There’s an interesting article today in The Bulwark.

One thing she would have going for her should she step up to the top of the ticket is that she’d instantly stuck all of the air out of the room. Reporting would be all about her all day ever day for weeks. trump would invariably say something both racist and sexist daily. There might not be enough time for all of her faults to become apparent amid excitement of the soap opera of switching horses midstream. (And she has a lot of faults, if anyone remembers her short, turbulent run for the presidency a few years ago. Did she even make it to the first primary? Lots of reporting of her being a demanding prima donna. But that’s neither here nor there.) She’d energize the female voters, young voters, and voters of color. Those last two buckets of voters have especially grown more apathetic to a second Biden term.

I wonder if he should drop out now.

That statement from the WH has exactly zero information value, since that’s the statement one would expect regardless of whether the claim was true or not. I suspect the reality is that Biden may have pondered the idea with a close ally, but that’s very far from being a done deal.

No, I think it’s important. Lack of charisma and reports that she’s hard to work with and hostile to her staff is not something you want in a candidate.

I concur that if Biden quits the race and Harris isn’t the successor, it would signal complete chaos in the Democratic Party. But, boy, I’d love to see Gavin Newsom run! Maybe with Harris as his running mate!

How do you explain these facts?–

This was all true BEFORE the 6/27 debate.

The Dem base will vote for whoever the candidate is, because we pay enough attention to the news to know how genuinely disastrous a Trump win would be for the nation (and the world).

But the Dem base alone is not enough to win. As the numbers in Velocity’s post indicate, the Democratic candidate MUST inspire people who don’t always (or ever) vote to come out and make that choice. The Democratic candidate MUST inspire people who don’t pay much attention to the news to come out and make that choice.

Those voters for the most part are completely unmoved by talk about how bad Trump will be. So relying on them both KNOWING and agreeing that ‘Trump is terrible so no matter what doubts you may have about Biden, you must vote for him anyway’ is spectacularly irresponsible.

Look at the numbers. The numbers before the debate and the numbers starting to come out about people’s reactions after the debate. No matter how little you may want to believe polls, you should not ignore the trends—and the way those trends differ between 2020 and 2024.
.
.
As for the NYT story about Biden’s state of mind–we don’t know how accurate that is, of course. But notice that the person quoted says that Biden is not oblivious to the discussions now going on. Which surely must be true. Because if he IS oblivious to it all…

Google News’s FactCheck section has AFP, The Quint and USA Today all stating that the video clip used was old, and the claim is False.

There are no facts, so far, that indicate another candidate would necessarily do better. And there’s data that suggests almost nothing has changed in the polling since before the debate:

I think the writing is on the wall and he should and will drop out. This is hard for me to state because I think Biden is a good person and has been an above average president- perhaps the best since LBJ. But Father Time has caught up with him and there is no way he can shake off the horror show of last week’s “debate”.

A Harris nomination would negate the double haters (gee, I don’t want to vote for a fascist but Biden is old) and would energize minority and women voters. Pair it with a charismatic (not Tim Kaine) running mate and we’re back in business. I love Joe, but dammit the number one priority to preserve democracy and cut our losses as quickly as possible.

Well, Biden and Harris had lunch. CNN is reporting the staff is all in for a “Pep talk”.

I believe we will be hearing from Biden tonight. Oval office, family and staffers by his side, the whole shebang. (WAG).