538 showed Biden led Trump by 9.6 percent, in the rolling polling average, on July 7, 2020. Today, July 7, 2024, Biden trails by 2.3 percent. So — Biden is running about 11 points behind where he needs to be even to have a 50-50 chance of winning.
It’s only close if the GOP electoral college advantage, and the so-called shy Trumper effect, have disappeared. And that’s so unlikely.
There are two reasons why Biden is coming under increasing pressure, from his own party, to drop out and/or retire. One is political. The other is patriotic — we need a mentally supple President. The fact that more Democrats are pressuring Biden to drop out, and few Republicans are pressuring Trump, says something good about the Democrats.
P.S. The shy Trumper idea has come under legitimate criticism. Trump supporters are not shy. But experience from 2016 and 2020 shows that Trump supporters disproportionately dislike answering the telephone.