Well, that might be accurate. But at that point I don’t think it will matter.
Since there are absolutely no certainties in such matters, you are essentially saying that he should not drop out.
I agree with your scoff of absolute certainty. But how improbable does something need to be before it is best dealt with as impossible?
IF Clooney is being honest, and this is far from a one off, Biden was just as befuddled at fundraiser affairs, and Stefanopolis said what he said because he spent time with current Biden, and Pelosi is not accepting that Biden has made up his mind because knows what his current function is, then Biden pulling off a comeback is very improbable.
I’m no Clooney. I have a small amount I will donate to politics. Should I and other small donors donate all we are going to give to help Biden’s now smaller chances, or instead give that up and donate downstream instead, as that becomes even more important and further challenged?
I’m not sure at this point.
I’ll take a better chance of winning. Even a small chance is better than essentially none. Choice between being losers and possibly being losers? Easy decision.
Even if Biden can’t do any better than he did at the debate, he still might win. So many talk about some obvious, clearly known group of tens of millions of voters who would definitely refuse to vote for Biden if they were certain he was incapable due to age, but this may not be the case. It’s too early to know. Voters may care much more about abortion, or about Project 2025, or Trump’s idiocy, when it comes time to vote.
I lean towards Biden should step down for Harris as the candidate. But this is based on feelings. There are no facts that tell us significantly better than a coin flip as to what Democrats should do at this point.
The Denocrats need to accept that they look like weak losers and try to give us the best chance of keeping trump out of office.
Biden has an opportunity here to cement his place in history. He could emulate George Washington and relinquish his power and decline to run again. He can rest on a remarkable track record that people will likely only appreciate when it’s in the past. He can pave the way for the first woman president. And he can put all of his remaining strength into resisting creeping authoritarianism. Or, he can look back after the election and say, “I did my best” in his current role. I’d vote for a potted ficus before I’d vote for Trump but there aren’t enough voters like me to keep Trump from office. Something has to give.
The reluctance of Democratic donors is going to get worse at least until the convention. My contributions are comparatively tiny against the big money donors but I’m holding on to them until I’m certain of who the presidential nominee will be. I’m concerned that if I give to the Biden campaign and neither Biden nor Harris is the nominee, it will have been wasted on this election cycle. I’m also concerned that if I wait until the convention, the money will come too late to be used effectively. Every day that Biden delays stepping down is one fewer day the nominee has to fight. Biden’s barely putting up a fight now so these days are just lost opportunities. I’m not a huge Harris fan but voters elected her in 2020 to step in if Biden is no longer capable. Now’s the time. She is the natural person to pick up where Biden leaves off.
Very nice of you to think so, but it is simply not true.
Yes, she did.
If Biden drops out- trump wins. period.
Which is EXACTLY the reason people need to STFU and get behind Biden and work toward his reelection. He has made it clear he will not be dropping out. There is no effective mechanism to take the nomination away from him now that he has won the primaries. Michael Steele made exactly this point yesterday on MSNBC.
As you point out, public opinion is turning against him. I believe this is driven largely by all the blathering going on in DC and by pundits. There is a good chance if everyone were to get behind him and work hard he will be reelected.
But Democrats are very skilled at participating in circular firing squads.
- Stephanopoulos was an idiot for talking to a random stranger on the street.
- He’s also wrong. Biden can do the job in a second term. Biden cannot, however, do the job of getting elected to a second term.
That’s the problem with the “resent the Elites” strategy. Even the less-engaged voters know that the voices that get heard on EVERY topic are the voices of the prominent…the “elites.”
I agree with @RickJay. And as is true of RickJay and everyone else posting, all that I say here or elsewhere is an opinion.
Colloquially, we all say ‘X will happen’ or ‘that’s what Y means’ without claiming either that we can see the future or that we can read the minds of others. It’s the way humans converse.
To say ‘no one knows for certain’ is quite true; it’s also a trivially obvious observation. We all argue based on our opinions—not based on any supernatural knowledge of things we can’t actually know. (But we still have a right to our opinion of what will happen, and/or what something means.)
I’m trying to come up with a poker analogy. Tell me how this works. (Ranking of starting hands here. probability - Starting hands head up - Poker Stack Exchange)
You’re a heads up table, doesn’t really matter the game, but we’ll say Hold’em since that’s an easy one to use. You don’t have the ability to wait for something that should be very high odds to push in on because the ante and blinds are about to kill you, but you can wait for one more hand. Biden isn’t as bad as 3-2 off, maybe he’s as good as say K-4 off (that’s 52% to win which right now seems high). It could win, but it’s very beatable. Do you take the risk and push in on what could very well be only king high, or do you wait and try your luck with getting maybe better high cards or suited connectors or perhaps a mid pocket pair? What if I told you it was guaranteed to be, say, A-6 suited (60%)? Still not close to a sure thing but more likely to win.
Sure, you could win on the K-4. You might try your luck and get an even worse hand. You could get lucky with pocket aces and still have a 15% chance of losing. But you’ve got about as good a chance as improving your odds by pushing in blind on the next hand.
Which is where I think the Democrats and supporters are stuck. Biden isn’t a guaranteed loser, even if he was as low as 3-2. There are no guarantees that trying someone else is going to win but they might be able to find someone who’s more like A-6 suited or even better.
But there’s also this:
Exactly, see everyone that wants Biden out has a different candidate they are sure will get the nod. Even when I say Harris is the only possible one- posters here downtalk Harris. So, in their minds all the Biden naysayers that are still in favor of getting rid of trump(and a lot of the naysayers secretly want trump) are thinking it will be their perfect candidate. But see- everyone is thing of a different perfect candidate- and whoever gets the nod- they wont be behind them, they will want someone else, and will whine bitch and complain that whatever system picked the candidate they didnt want is unfair, biased, etc- so they will not vote for them.
Thus no one can win- unless it it Biden.
I thus challenge every poster here who says “Biden should go!” to list their preferred choice- and I bet there will be nothing like a consensus.
Harris is the only other “card” that can realistically be played. There’s not a stack of unknown cards that might come up. Only the Harris card can come up. Theoretically, the party could unite behind a wildly popular outsider to be the new candidate, but that’s an unrealistic scenario. First off, there’s no candidate that the party universally supports. And it would be so chaotic trying to get the party to unite behind a new candidate that it would erode a lot of voter confidence in the Democratic candidate. That’s not even considering how the new candidate would be funded. The funds raised by Biden/Harris would need to be returned to the respective donors and the new candidate would need to raise that money again.
Of the options, it has to be Harris. I’ll be an enthusiastic supporter if that happens.
One for Harris and I concur so 2.
Add me to the tally and make it 3.
(I eagerly await seeing how many people chime in with pipe dreams like Michelle Obama or Buttigieg.)
I’ve been tracking this thread and the “Stop Panicking” one for two weeks, and the consensus is unquestionably Harris. With which I completely agree.
Do you need to be spoon fed?
Link provided by @PhillyGuy. Discussed in other threads too and no I want go fetch them for you.
Now how about a cite to back up your belief that there are no voters who “lean” Trump? Only MAGA voters and those deciding between staying home or Biden?
I think a 2020 Biden would have a reasonable chance of pulling this election out of the shitter. Given that it increasingly seems to me that debate Biden is 2024 Biden such a turnaround seems to me to be vanishingly improbable. It’s a low bar to be better of a chance than that.
Still my Harris analysis is not completely of no basis. The vote against Trump by engaged voters is the same. Misogynists and Jew haters (husband is enough for crafty Jews) were never voting D. Pick up some who were staying home because they are scared by Biden’s feebleness. Stop some in engaged Trump leaners from bothering because now they are not voting against Biden. Rev up woman and Black turnout some. Current polling before a convention before she is the candidate is uninformative. She does Biden numbers plus some. Plus enough? Unsure. But she is at the attack than current Biden is.