I know some people who would say Newsom.
Which is not as out there as the two I mentioned but he has pretty much ruled it out.
What about you though?
That cite doesnt say what you think it does.
There are people polling now who poll against Biden for a variety of reasons. That doesnt mean they will vote for trump. It just means they arent in favor of Biden.
If he stays in and loses, is it going to make the party and its supporters look like a bunch of weak losers?
A poll posted above showed Harris has less support than Biden:
(I’m not sure what that middle one is about)
It looks like Harris might be about 6-7% behind Biden. Unless polls show that Harris is the same or better than Biden, Biden should not drop out.
Yes, they will be seen as losers, but, in my opinion, will be seen as weaker and worse losers if they switch candidates and still lose. Unless there’s a very good reason to believe Harris would win (e.g. polling numbers better than Biden), it would make Dems look foolish to switch to a weaker candidate.
@DrDeth I’ll go with my reading comprehension over yours on this.
The situation would be vastly different if Biden dropped out due to the media frenzy that would erupt. Nothing like this has happened before, and it will be the talk of the town. I would anticipate (no guarantees) that Harris would get a significant bump.
I don’t know why it’s so hard for people to concede that they don’t know with a certainty what our best chance at beating Trump is. You don’t, I don’t, and George Clooney doesn’t.
And no one will ever know with a certainty. But those who come closest will be those with detailed metrics, and deep analyses of the alternatives, their threats, their benefits, and their obstacles. This should be a thoughtful, disciplined process, not the collective gut reactions of the chattering classes. I pray the real decision makers and influencers are following that path.
“It’s impossible for Biden to win.” You don’t fucking know that. He might be our only chance. Or not. The question that needs to be answered is not “Does Joe look frail?” or “Is there a ticket that will elicit more enthusiasm for the base?” or “Will Joe even survive a second term?”
None of that matters. The only question that needs to be answered is, “Who has the best chance of beating Trump?” Your feelings or hunches or impressions don’t matter, however strong they are. Neither do mine.
I agree that would likely be the case. At least until the haters from both the right and left got their attack machines running at full speed.
Biden, in my opinion and based on from what I can tell are just plain facts and being honest with oneself, has next to no chance of winning.
It seems to me that almost any reasonably capable Democratic candidate has a better shot. Biden is cooked. He is losing to maybe the worst human being in the world and does not appears, to my observation ad the honest observation of many Democratic supporters, to be a man capable of doing any job at all, much less President of the United States. Worse, because of those things, there is a growing snowball of calls from Democrats for him to step aside.
I am absolutely flabbergasted that anyone could watch him and honestly think he can be President. Of course, I think he’d be a better choice than Donald Trump even if he was literally dead, but he isn’t gonna win.
Right. She’s a virtual unknown compared to Biden and only trails him by 6 points. Make her the center of attention and she could easily vault past both Biden and Trump.
That’s a terrible poll for several reasons. Crappy pollster, small sample, mysterious methodology (what the hell is the difference between those last two rows?). But even if it’s accurate, there are two glaring problems:
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Alternatives to Biden are not actively campaigning and in many cases voters barely know – or may not know at all – who they even are. This tells us nothing about how they would do on the campaign trail.
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All of them indicate a guaranteed loss for Biden. And therefore indicate the need for a major shakeup ASAP. Barring some unimaginable miracle, this is not going to be accomplished by an octogenarian in failing health and cognitive decline.
One can debate what, if anything, can be done about it, but those are the facts.
The one in the middle is likely a five or six candidate poll: Biden, Trump, Kennedy, Stein, West, and sometimes Libertarian Chase Oliver is listed.
(The graphic wouldn’t show up in the quoted material for some reason)
That’s the synchronic analysis, but that’s no good. We need the candidate to gain over the next few months. It doesn’t matter where they are now as much as where their ceiling is, and what their potential is for reaching it. Is Biden at or near his, while Harris has room to grow? Switch to Harris. Is the reverse true? Keep Biden.
The case based on current polling for Biden to drop out is weak. Conventional wisdom is that changing candidates would hurt rather than help, Biden is still polling well enough that it’s possible for him to gain enough ground and win just based on that, and there is no realistic alternative who polls better.
The case for Biden to drop out is based on the view that common sense says it’ll be really tough for him to gain support after showing serious signs of cognitive decline. Now of course it would be far from the most illogical thing the US public has decided, but it’s something you would think in a vacuum.
Normally obviously the answer would be to wait and see, but we probably don’t have time for that, so ultimately it’s a judgment call on what you think is more important.
There’s also a side issue of how big of a deal is it actually to make a late replacement and/or for a President to decide not to run for a second term and someone else to run instead. According to conventional wisdom it’s very bad but it’s not something we do very often so we don’t really know.
I certainly do not know. I base my opinion on current polling- which I cheerfully admit - is not a very good metric (because the numbers are close and the election is four months away). But it really is the only one we have.
The current polls- which I just admitted above are not a very good metric- say differently.
Exactly what I have been claiming all this year, Biden has been running within a point or two or trump- and admittedly- usually a point or two behind trump. It varies for poll to poll.
Is it lost on you that you’re doing what I described—i.e., offering as a virtual certainty something you’re in no position to determine? Again, neither am I. You’re entitled to your opinion, of course, but your impression of President Biden is not determinative.
The chattering classes don’t decide elections. There’s not enough of us. But we can certainly sabotage them.