Politics is a tricky game. Like I said, all of the arguments I’ve seen for replacing Biden is mostly vibe-based, but vibes ARE key in politics.
I just keep looking for something more solid than “it’s facially obvious.” I get where it’s coming from, I do, but it just seems so rickety for such a serious step. Polls may not be perfect, but at least it’s SOMETHING more tangible.
I’m unaware that this is conventional wisdom.
A lot of people go to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast page and just check out the topmost graphic to quickly take the general election’s temperature.
However, data analyst G. Elliot Morris also writes a regular narrative on the same page about the current state of play – just scroll down a bit. Morriss’ posted his latest on Monday, July 8th:
It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 489 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 508 of our simulations …
It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls. (I think here he means in the popular vote - b)
538’s focus on uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved much in reaction to new national polls showing Trump gaining on Biden. In effect, we are hedging our bets, putting more weight on the so-called “fundamentals” because we believe the campaign could be volatile or polls could be biased. The other big factor explaining our model’s relative stability is the flurry of swing-state polls that were published over the weekend, most good for Biden. The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency …
Now. If the Biden campaign’s internal metrics are in line with FiveThirtyEight’s (and thus not in line with the main run of major polling outfits), it’s no wonder that Biden is not summarily dropping out.
American celebrities who choose to live in another country should stay the fuck out of American politics.
The Democratic Party is hell-bent on destroying itself for the sake of a “moral victory” that exists only in their minds. Do you know what the response should have been?
“You Republicans are running a mentally deficient rapist. Get the fuck out of my face.”
This shouldn’t be a newsflash, but it seems like lots of Dopers are utterly shocked by just the hypothesis that “most American voters already believed Biden was a doddering old man, and thus the debate had little or no affect on their opinion of him”. Polling seems to suggest that the debate just didn’t matter much. And if so, Biden can still win. G. Elliot Morris from 538 has said that he’s just a standard polling error away from winning now, and that’s without 4 months of focusing on Trump’s abortion stance, Project 2025, and general insanity and hatefulness.
Maybe Biden should drop out, but there’s no crystal clear facts that tell us this. It’s just a guess.
What does their country of residence have to do with anything? An American is an American, and a voter is a voter.
I mean, I agree we should stop giving people an outsized voice just because they are rich and / or famous, but you’re allowed to live outside the country.
If he stays in and loses, his reputation will be marred.
Not to mention Military personnel who are stationed overseas.
Quit it with the actual analysis! 
(Actually quoting bordelond’s cite, not bordelond, to be clear)
Nate Silver, as I understand him, identifies this as the reason his model is so much more pessimistic than the 538 model. Based on historic election data, it’s certainly true that a small lead in the polls at this point doesn’t mean much, and that economic fundamentals have considerable predictive value.
But how much does that mean in the context of this election, where both candidates are very well-known and the country is much more highly polarized than it has usually been? In the last month, Biden has had a massive senior moment on national TV and Trump has been convicted of multiple felonies, and the polls haven’t reacted massively to either of these developments; indeed, they haven’t significantly shifted in months. The economy has been doing relatively well for some time, and it hasn’t helped Biden’s numbers yet.
I think looking at this election as though it were a historically typical situation vastly underestimates the amount of trouble Biden is in.
They’re just giving away the game at this point. This has nothing to do with getting a Democratic victory, it’s all about game-show-ifying politics and creating a ratings spectacle they can profit off of.
The question that needs to be answered is how likely is it that Biden will have a future performance as bad as the presidential debate. If Biden looks healthy and presidential for the next four months, my belief is that the debate will be viewed as an unfortunate bad day. But right now, everybody is looking for the next moment when Biden comes across as senile. If he has a public appearance where he comes across as confused, there will be tsunami of opinion columns saying that Biden is unfit to be President. Biden won’t win in November if that happens. And reading the George Clooney statements, Clooney thinks it’s likely Biden will have future bad days.
Biden did an interview a few days after the debate and still didn’t do well.
You can see Seth Meyers, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert referencing a clip from that interview and not being enthused here:
The New York Times would be derelict not to consider this real news:
Pelosi and Others Try a New Tack With Biden: Is That Your Final Answer?
Does Nancy Pelosi know what 538 says? Probably. Like me, she doesn’t agree. And no one is paying her off.
Hinting didn’t work last week, so it’s easy to predict it won’t work when repeated. But I wouldn’t vote against Pelosi knowing what she’s doing.
I have heard from a few Dems that their best strategy is Biden dies pre-election. Is it really that dire? Or just more Democratic Chicken Littles post-debate?
“has no credibility on this topic” should be the remainder of that sentence.
Surely the best strategy would be for that to happen to the other guy.
Yes they are. Democrats are absolutely, without doubt, their own worst enemies. While the right remains in absolute lockstep about their candidate, the left is second-guessing themselves to death.
And you know this how?
Well, if George Clooney thinks so, that’s a different story.