My guess is that if Harris became the nominee the sudden attention could lift her numbers higher than either Biden or Trump. OTOH, there seems to be a solid lid on Biden’s polling numbers that’s even with or slightly below Trump.
Just my speculation, of course.
There are to many Democrats speaking out. She is using her reputation to get actually heard.
The dropping out craze will end in a week. But from that scedule, just after the GOP convention is best if he does it. That way it is going to prepare the party and press for his convention. At which he will speak. For Kamala, if that happens.
I agree that good leaders delegate. But the buck stops with the person in charge. It’s hard to imagine President Biden’s condition started with the debate.
Despite four years of media saying how she’s been a bad VP/not been given much to do, suddently I’m seeing a lot of pundits singing her praises. They argue that she’s been on the front lines on the abortion battle since Roe was overturned, and that she could give a big boost to women voters and voters of colour, the latter of which Biden has been losing support from lately.
Personally, I think she’d be a damn good candidate; can you imagine any debate (not that TFG would agree to one)? Rhetorically, she’d run circles around him. It would drive the GOP nuts and the dog whistles would just become outright whistles, which I think would sour voters against the cons more than they think.
I’m much more optimistic about a ticket with her at the head. I wasn’t four years ago, but we’re living in different times.
Seth Abramson (Proof Substack) has carefully collected the receipts and makes a solid case that Biden is getting railroaded, chiefly by major media sources.
Here is what this new Proof report will show, with reliable major-media sourcing:
Just 120 days ago, Joe Biden had a full cognitive work-up whickeh showed no abnormal results.
Prior to leaving for a long overseas trip in June, President Biden exhibited no cognitive behavior that is unusual for his age.
During his trip overseas, President Biden was so committed to working hard for America that he ignored staffers’ advice about resting, undertook a schedule that major media now confirms would be deemed both physically and mentally “grueling” for a man half his age, and yet still exercised daily and came home to America to continue to work long hours.
None of this impacted anything national security-related, either before or after the debate, according to over a dozen sources.
Since he got over his cold and got some rest, Joe Biden has been just fine.
In contrast, Donald Trump has been in demonstrated cognitive decline over the last year, and there is no known explanation for it; indeed, the campaign has not even tried to explain it.
Abramson concludes (his emphases):
What we don’t have an answer for is why this is happening. Part of it, surely, is that we are all experiencing valid anxiety over the prospective end of America—and for ten to fifteen minutes in Atlanta, that end seemed closer than ever to many of us. That sharp realization was legitimately traumatizing. We’re still processing that trauma, and as is normal under such circumstances we tend to latch onto byzantine, morally unjustified explications of what we’re experiencing rather than seeking the simplest explanation.
And the simplest explanation is this: Joe Biden had a bad night because he made bad choices in the days leading up to that night, choices he no longer makes and which in a sense it’s good he made when he did because now he knows not to make them again.
And the simplest explanation would continue on to point out that major media is seeing its worst audience figures ever, and it’s bleeding money, and it’s experiencing scandal after scandal over bad hires (of both executives and on-air talent) and is angry over Americans quickly dissolving faith in corporate journalism. It feels constantly showed up by independent journalists and social media voices, and is angry at Team Biden in particular because it hasn’t given media the free content Trump did (not by being transparent, as the Trump White House was anything but, but rather by being so exponentially more corrupt and incompetent than the Biden White House that free major-media material emanated from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue almost daily). It is so appalled by its low ratings in an election year that it has decided to not just credit but mollycoddle a few congressional backbenchers, disgruntled former D.C. insiders, and know-nothing donors spending money they didn’t earn with their wits on candidates they think will further enrich them. And major media did all this by stretching into a 14-day fiasco what should have been at best a half-day news story.
I agree only with point #6.
Point #2 is plainly false. Points #1, #3, and #4 are not relevant. Point #5 is false.
I don’t always like her voice, especially poor when she was running in 201, but now she seems to have some momentum. A lot of people do not “like” her but then…she is a politician. As a Democrat that is never a requirement for me. Competent is enough for me.
I hope he sticks it out…but Harris-Whitmer ticket would kick-ass.
One of the people who are thought as possible replacements, and just about the biggest union in America?
It would be the wrong thing, handing the election to trump.
or maybe two.
This is mixed news-
Americans divide 46-47% between Biden and Trump if the election were today, almost identical to a 44-46% ABC/Ipsos poll result in April. Among registered voters (though there’s plenty of time to register) it’s an absolute tie, 46-46%.
So, since Biden is polling okay- why drop him- unless you secretly want trump to win?
Good news is that Harris is doing better than i thought-
Were Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, vote choices are 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris’ 49% is slightly better than Biden’s 46%, although she doesn’t have a statistically significant lead over Trump.
And the LA Times makes it clear that the NY Times is full of shit-
He was and still is a joke. But there’s a lot of stupid people in the US and A and it’s not that hard to find them. Bannon know strategy, for sure. One ignores him at their own peril.
With all the blood in the water, why has not one opportunistic Democrat announced they’re willing to be the nominee?
To accompany the poll above, the other important question. Just wondering about sheer numbers here.
Who, right now, has the best chance of defeating Trump in November if they became the nominee?
Again, doing a good job in the office and getting elected to the office are two different things. As I said, I’m sure Biden can at least limp along as President (if not better) to January 2025 with help with needed. I don’t think he can win the election to be in office the afternoon of January 20, 2025 based on the polls over the last few months and the effect of these last two weeks.
Doesn’t matter how much better qualified you are as a person or anything else if you can’t win in the first place.
Likewise, after a week or two after the Hillary/Trump debates, everyone forgot that Trump was an idiot, damned their own lying eyes, and continued on to vote for him and deny all evidence that he was unfit for office.
I wouldn’t say that there was ever a point where something good came out of that.
No, the two papers believe much the same thing, as do I. Trump is a psychopath and a convicted felon who’s been indicted for far more serious felonies for which he has not yet been convicted, and who will surround himself with like-minded criminals just as he did last time, except this time it’ll be far worse and he’ll drag America down with him. He belongs in jail, not in the Oval Office.
Whereas Biden is a man of integrity who is getting really old and frail, and such is the shallowness and stupidity of American voters that if he doesn’t step down he will very likely lose the election to Trump.
And that’s where we stand.
The LA Times said nothing of the sort, and if Biden does drop out, trump wins. Why do people want that?
You’ve said this as many times as others have said the opposite. I’m beginning to think we don’t know how this will play out.
We dont of course. What we do know is current polls. Biden is polling neck and neck with trump. No one else- except Harris in some polls- is even close. So, Harris is a maybe.
The main reason I think that all the discussion here is pretty much just vibes. The few pieces of actual information, like polls, nudge me towards Biden, but I don’t know how much.