And the inescapable fact is that a Democratic Presidential candidate can win ONLY if ahead by 4 to 5 points in the popular vote. The Electoral College advantage Republicans enjoy means that even if Joe managed 3 percentage points ahead in the popular vote, Trump would likely take the White House.
I realize this is an older story, but since the procedure in question was done quite a while back with effects that were remarked upon at the time (per my memory and remarked upon by the quoted article) I’m going to just leave it here. You’re free to disagree of course. But hairlines don’t advance again after years of retreat without help from someone.
Yup. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% four years ago and then yet still came within a hair’s breadth of losing Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin - the three states that put him over the top.
And that was with Biden leading by an average of 8-10% in the summer.
Any poll that shows Biden merely leading Trump by 2-3% right now is nothing to celebrate.
Alright. I’ll say it.
I think we should all count ourselves extremely fortunate that Joe Biden doesn’t react to allegations of, or disparaging comments about, cosmetic procedures in the same way that Donald Trump allegedly did.
All of this is painful, and it’s not surprising that people are looking for comfort. As Bernie Sanders was quoted as saying:
But Sanders was choosing to de-emphasize crucial facts of the French election, in which the Left succeeded ONLY through coalition—not, as Sanders implied, as an electoral triumph in which voters overwhelmingly embraced the left and rejected the right. A trend that would have voters worldwide decisively rejecting rightwing extremism would certainly be of comfort to US Democrats. But:
Of course Sanders, being of the left himself, chose to interpret the French election in the way most favorable to his own side, by ignoring certain facts about what actually happened.
We can’t afford to overlook facts.
The Democrat, as mentioned upthread, will have to come out ahead in the popular vote by 4 to 5% in order to beat the GOP Electoral College advantage. Currently, ‘Biden should stay’ advocates are thrilled that he’s even with Trump (or even ‘not that much behind’).
This attitude is a blueprint for a Trump win.
What do Biden-should-stay advocates believe Biden can do to get anywhere near where he was at this time in 2020? More teleprompter rallies? How will that gain him the points he must have?
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The Sanders quote comes from:
Bernie Sanders backs Biden and urges Democrats to ‘stop the bickering’
The Dems should stop prosecuting the case against Biden and get back to prosecuting the case against Trump. It’s such an easy thing to do.
Assuming Biden is behind, what evidence do we have that someone else would be better, apart from “there should or has to be”?
It is easy to do, and every time you do it, you remind Trump supporters to vote.
See:
Why negative campaigning doesn’t work
A jury found that Trump penetrated a woman in a First Avenue department store. Another jury convicted him of 34 felonies. Effect on Trump-Biden polls: Zip. Partisan campaigns cannot do to public opinion what our courts could not.
And Democrats criticizing Biden didn’t create any harm to his candidacy independent of the underlying appearance of cognitive issues.
If Biden stays in, Democratic House and Senate candidates, at risk of losing their seats, and needing to run ahead of Biden to win, are going to distance themselves from Joe. If they do not, they are more likely to lose.
PS. I did NOT say to stop criticizing Trump. He deserves criticism. Just don’t think more criticism of Trump would win elections…
It’s not Dems doing the prosecuting, though, it’s the general public. When the public sees things like that June-27 debate and think “Biden’s too old,” and the Dems insist, “No, he’s not too old, now shut up and vote for him,” that gives off emperor’s-new-clothes vibes and causes a Streisand Effect.
Polling so far doesn’t suggest any significant impact.
Not exactly a landslide, or even much of a victory margin at all.
“The general public” being Wolf Blitzer, Bill Maher, George Clooney, and the New York Times editorial board, of course.
Indeed it’s not. But it’s an actual data point in a discussion sorely lacking in them, especially when one key point is political viability and whether the current candidate is a good chance.
Speaking of Bernie, this photo with Biden provides immense reassurance to voters hesitant over the age issue.
Couldn’t have asked for better optics.
“Immense” is a little strong. One old man has better posture and combs his hair more effectively. Otherwise, it’s just a photo showing two old men who look old. I don’t think any still photos are going to make a difference: you don’t really show your age in photos the way you do when you half to move or speak on video.
Right.
Harris almost polls as well, and she is the best.
Welp - we’re at what? Hour 46 or so since the “Potentially dozens of Democrats” article linked above? I think it ended up being another three or four more Democratic lawmakers (assuming they mean from the U.S. Congress and Senate, not state, county, or municipal legislators). Nowhere near “dozens”, though.
The Culture Code for the American presidency is MOSES. Strip away the religious components of the story of Moses, you’ll see that he represents the Code for the American presidency aptly: a rebellious leader of his people with a strong vision and the will to get them out of trouble.
That’s from a book I just read, The Culture Code by Cotaire Rapaille.
Just feels on point after what happened today for some reason, and relevant to this thread because I think Biden wants to be able to do this, but no longer can as well as he did. And Trump can fake this well.
Counter to my expectations, 538 today bumped this up to Biden 52%, Trump 47% (rounded, with an 0.4% chance of a tie). I remind the house that their model is not strictly poll-based.
I put more faith in the 538’s predictions than most other polls. What do you think accounts for the Biden bounce?