Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)

[CoolHandCox]

Thanks for posting that. Those two journalists are the co-founders of Axios - so not just some randos.

Here’s another snippet from your article:

Harris would be hard to stop — perhaps impossible — if the Obamas and Clintons joined [along with] Biden, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and the Congressional Black Caucus in backing her. It’s not clear the coronation would be so fast and clear, however.

In my mind, the coronation has to be fast and clear. And I can certainly appreciate people feeling cheated on this not being a democratic process if that were to happen.

I really wanted a replacement after the debate. But now that it’s looking more possible, I’ll admit I’m flinching a bit. It’s certainly a gamble. But I always rip the bandaid so let’s just do it already.

Late: Here’s the NYT adding to the pile. People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race

[Aeschines]

@Whack-a-Mole

I think there is a MUCH bigger reason for Harris…she would immediately have access to the Biden election campaign money…which is a lot.

I am not clear on the ins-and-outs but it is my understanding that money cannot just be handed to someone else (other than Harris because she is already part of the Biden campaign).

I have heard different things about this, but yes, starting off with that being no problem whatsoever is certainly a concrete and important advantage.

[Velocity]

@Smapti

And they won’t fall in line behind Harris either. After two weeks have passed and she’s failed to magically assume a 30-point lead in the polls, the same doomers that have betrayed Biden will turn on her too.

I won’t use the word “cult” since you’re not there yet, but the behavior you’ve shown in this thread (about Biden) is starting to get eerily similar to how Trumpers view Trump.

[Aeschines]

@CoolHandCox

In my mind, the coronation has to be fast and clear. And I can certainly appreciate people feeling cheated on this not being a democratic process if that were to happen.

“Coronation” isn’t the right word, IMHO, in this context. It’s a necessary and completely understandable response to very untoward circumstances.

I think absolutely everyone will enthusiastically get behind Harris because she is great and, yes, she is going to destroy the GOP in the election.

I really wanted a replacement after the debate. But now that it’s looking more possible, I’ll admit I’m flinching a bit. It’s certainly a gamble. But I always rip the bandaid so let’s just do it already.

Harris looks at least as good as Biden in terms of polling and has significant upside. Biden is the bigger gamble, especially since we don’t know whether or not he’s getting worse in real time. I don’t know which is worse: A) He was this bad before the SOTU but was successfully hiding it, or B) He’s gotten that much worse since then!

[Whack-a-Mole]

@Aeschines

First of all, Harris’s current polling is excellent.

Is she polling well?

Kamala Harris suffers major polling blow

Kamala Harris Suffers Polling Blow Among Black Women

Kamala Harris : Approval Polls

[Aeschines]

@Velocity

I won’t use the word “cult” since you’re not there yet, but the behavior you’ve shown in this thread (about Biden) is starting to get eerily similar to how Trumpers view Trump.

I think in the case of Biden it’s more a case of cognitive whiplash. I follow politics pretty closely, I think, but I was dumbstruck by how bad Biden was in the debate. Dumbstruck and pissed the fuck off. Not everyone can adjust to the new reality with the same speed. Biden himself has certainly been a poor adjuster.

[Aeschines]

@Whack-a-Mole

Is she polling well?

That’s what I have heard from multiple sources but will continue to educate myself going forward.

[Dr.Drake]

Mind you, if Biden does exit the race and Trump wins, we will forever be hearing about how Biden would have won if only…

[DSeid]

So that letter, signed by 1400 individuals? Does not speak for Black women voters across America.

And I am very confident that every one of them will enthusiastically support a Harris led campaign.

[Whack-a-Mole]

Maybe you have seen these polls:

• 79 percent of Democrats approve of Harris replacing Biden if he steps aside: Poll

But that is a different thing.

[Smapti]

@DSeid

So that letter, signed by 1400 individuals? Does not speak for Black women voters across America.

But Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff do? Please.

@Velocity

I won’t use the word “cult” since you’re not there yet, but the behavior you’ve shown in this thread (about Biden) is starting to get eerily similar to how Trumpers view Trump.

And if the rest of the Democratic party followed my example instead of immediately ceding to QOP talking points there’d be no problem and we’d be headed for a landslide victory. If Trump wins it will be because Democrats stabbed Biden in the back.

@Aeschines

Doomers appeared precisely because he shit the bed.

Doomers have been trying to pick off Biden for years and seized on an opportunity.

@Dr.Drake

if Biden does exit the race and Trump wins, we will forever be hearing about how Biden would have won if only…

I intend to spend however much time I have left in the fascist regime this country is going to become reminding the people who betrayed the man who could have stopped this that this is what you wanted.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@DSeid

And I am very confident that every one of them will enthusiastically support a Harris led campaign.

I hope so but right now that does not seem to be the case (see the article linked in post 1505).

[DSeid]

Looking at more than one poll, she’s polling at about Biden levels.

Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Reportedly...

Harris has also polled better than other Democrats commonly floated as replacement candidates to Biden, but the polls didn’t factor in how months of campaigning could change voters’ perceptions of many of the lesser-known candidates that don’t have the benefit of national name recognition like Harris does.

The polls also don’t factor in how being at the top changes things for her. They are of very little value at this point.

The argument is that she has his same floor but not his ceiling.

[DSeid]

Those signators? Die hard Dems. Of course they will.

[Whack-a-Mole]

What signators? It was a poll:

Kamala Harris Suffers Polling Blow Among Black Women

[Aeschines]

@Smapti

And if the rest of the Democratic party followed my example instead of immediately ceding to QOP talking points there’d be no problem and we’d be headed for a landslide victory. If Trump wins it will be because Democrats stabbed Biden in the back.

So I am influenced by fascist talking points and not judging Biden’s capability for myself? I watched the debate–one of the most painful, politics-centered moments of my life. One of the very anti-Trump psychologists I quoted in another thread said it was like watching Trump win in 2016. I had the same feeling. Devastation.

Doomers have been trying to pick off Biden for years and seized on an opportunity.

There’s always someone, but I didn’t even see much opposition to his running again, if any.

[Aeschines]

@DSeid

Looking at more than one poll, she’s polling at about Biden levels.

Right. The political analysts I watch on YouTube have been saying things like this, and, at the same time, I have not heard claims to the contrary.

The polls also don’t factor in how being at the top changes things for her. They are of very little value at this point.

The argument is that she has his same floor but not his ceiling.

Exactly.

My observation is also that the GOP would much prefer Biden to remain the race and greatly fear it being shaken up.

[sciurophobic]

Couldn’t the possibility of Harris becoming President be a reason many might not want to vote for Biden?

[Measure_for_Measure]

@Hawkeyeop

Here is Nate Silver writing about it. There is little turnover more due to how partisan seats are then incumbency.

Props and thanks for the link. I was disappointed that Nate didn’t report the effects of incumbency after controlling for other factors, but I speculate that he’s done that on his own. I’m willing to concede now that there’s some evidence for the decline in the power of incumbency, though I wish Nate dug a little deeper. He did mention the low sample size problems.

@Aeschines

Guys, Biden is going to be outa there soon, no question.

NYT article, updated 5 min ago:

Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party.

One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that “reality is setting in,” and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.

The ground has shifted under my feet over the past 2 hours.

[Aeschines]

@Measure_for_Measure

The ground has shifted under my feet over the past 2 hours.

Yes. I’m not a huge fan of the Young Turks, but they have been reporting on every little detail of this since the debate, and they have been on target (Cenk thought Biden would be out this past Monday… he was wrong, but it seems like not by much…).