I wouldn’t quite agree with the “time to enjoy himself” idea. I imagine he needs to stay constantly busy, with matter of supreme importance, to push back crushing grief, and survivor guilt.
Now, he might quit if it his presidency has failed. Suppose, say, that the unemployment rate in three years is like now, or worse. And that the GOP has continuously controlled the Senate (but I repeat myself). That would be a reason to give up.
With AOC running against her in the primaries.
Susan Collins?
Like I said, I expect him to run in 2024, assuming he wins next week, anyway.
In the less likely event that he were not to run, I don’t think it would be due to failing health or mental ability, but having already achieved what he wants to achieve, and is ready for a well earned retirement.
Collins (R-ME), Yea
Technically possible, because AOC turns 35 less than a month before the election. But it will not happen.
Powers &8^]
Why not? Isn’t she Bernie’s successor in keeping the party left?
I’m not sure what you’re talking about. Bernie is only a Democrat when he’s running for President, so I’m not sure he has any role in “keeping the party left”.
AOC is an important voice, but she’s still a freshman Congressperson and her influence on the party’s direction is limited to her ability to energize her followers on social media. And more importantly, she’s perfectly aware of that. Two years ago she was a bartender. She knows she doesn’t have the experience needed to be President, and some really wacky things would have to happen for her to want to engage in a primary battle against an incumbent Vice President who has been rated the most consistently liberal (or, at least, the most consistently not-conservative) Senator in the current Congress.
In other words, she’s smarter than that.
Powers &8^]
I guess you’re right. No way an energetic, charismatic freshman Congressman could have a chance to compete in the presidential primaries, let alone win the Presidency.
She knows she doesn’t have the experience needed to be President
And this is true, no one has ever been elected President without significant experience.
Democratic Party leadership badly needs to get younger imo. Something along the lines of a Harris -Mayor Pete ticket in '24 and '28 maybe. The exact names aren’t as important as them being no older than Medicare -eligible.
AOC in '32 with 14 years experience under her belt and a substantially different electorate behind her.
I find this interesting insomuch as the left-wing of the Democratic Party thinks she is way too right 
. Although she has called herself a ‘progressive’ in the past she certainly isn’t normally counted among the left-wing of the DP. Her law-enforcement background and record as an AG leaves a sour taste in a lot of progressive mouths.
It’s kind of an odd problems that particularly national-level politicians have - they often seek to be all things to as many people as possible, but the flip-side is that they simultaneously come off as anathema to as many people as possible. It’s like people interpreting religious texts. Despite reading the exact same book some decide they are commanded to be pacifists, others bomb-throwing terrorists.
Obama - blandly MOR workaday president, would be progressive savior or radical socialist? It was pretty easy to find people who believed any of the above back in the day. Humans are just weird that way.
Obama certainly had a unique coalition behind him. But he also had experience as a state legislator, and he was in the Senate, not the House.
Hoover and Trump are not strong arguments against the need for experience to be a successful president.
Powers &8^]
If he has a serious illness he won’t run again and may step down too. I’m sure many people who ran this year as a Dem will also run against Harris in 24. I don’t think she’s a lock to get the nomination.
Yeah pretty sure I didn’t say they were successful, just elected.
Plus the fact that AOC may run not necessarily to be elected but to be more visible nationally, position herself for Senator/Governor run, get a spot in the cabinet like Secy of HUD, etc.
Trump is NOT a successful president, but he IS a successful campaigner. He had a lifetime of experience in self-promotion, which helped him win the election.
Yeah pretty sure I didn’t say they were successful, just elected.
That’s true. But if you’re suggesting she would be content to be elected and not be a successful president, I think you’re severely underestimating her intelligence.
Plus the fact that AOC may run not necessarily to be elected but to be more visible nationally, position herself for Senator/Governor run, get a spot in the cabinet like Secy of HUD, etc.
She doesn’t need to run for President to do that stuff. She’s already in Congress and already is extremely well known.
Powers &8^]
I could see Biden resigning after two years if his health declines. It would allow Harris to potentially serve 10 years.
I expect that Biden will be too old and tired to run again in 2024, and think it’s pretty likely that he’ll step down sometime before that. He’s clearly showing signs of age, and I think the rigors of this campaign and its aftermath are going to slow him down even more. 2-3 years is enough time for him to do something to leave a lasting legacy as president, and I think a combination of that and simple ‘get Trump out’ are what is driving him to run now.
Remember all of the ‘before and after’ Obama pics with the massive increase in grey hair? For people that are actually trying to be a good leader, the office is massively draining.
If he resigns at 12:01pm on Jan 20th, most of the Dems (and the Nobel Committee?) will label him as one of the greatest Presidents ever for not-being-Trump.
And they’ll be correct.