Ryan, it sounds like although you’re UK, you’re not a Scot. But you seem very sure Scots would vote to leave the UK if offered another referendum. In fact it sounds like you think they’ll demand a referendum with such ferocity that the UK at large will have to grant them that second referendum.
Is that your prediction, or your preference? If prediction, where’s the evidence? IOW, who has the leverage to push on what or who to achieve what and why? And when?
The process of getting to the first referendum was decades in the making and was very much the life’s work of Alex Salmond. Nicola Sturgeon is certainly a competent politician. But she’s not a monomaniac like Salmond was.
The longer this whole in/out dialog & wrestling match drags out, even sub rosa, the less favorable the economics & demographics look for Scotland. The longer the goodies the Scots got in the first referendum continue to apply, the more benefit flows to Scotland. IOW from what I can see the window for Scots independence is closing, not opening.
I’m not in or from the UK, so I’m watching this from an ocean away. But ISTM you’re stone certain about something almost nobody else is. Which makes me ask: “Why?”
Why would the Scots want out of the Union? Because they want to be in the EU. And if the economic benefits of EU membership outweigh the economic benefits of staying in a non-EU UK - and they might - there’s a reason right there.
And then rUK begins its long slide into complete irrelevance. But at least fewer immigrants will want to come.
I was born in England and travel on a British passport although I have lived in Australia since I was 2 except for a couple of years in London in the 70s. I consider myself an Australian and have no ties at all to the UK. I can add this to the list of things about which I will not be casting a vote.
I wouldn’t guarantee another Scottish Independence referendum if the UK leaves. The Scots Nats will be very wary of another vote as long as oil is at it’s currently low price. They lost a referendum vote whilst oil was $80 a barrel. The chances are they’ll lose(and they know it) if oil is anywhere near $25-$50 per barrel.
There was also a lot of discussion about the terms Scotland would have if they entered the EU
Some claimed that they would have to accept the Euro as a new member, others claimed that as existing members they could keep the same terms they already had and would not need to adopt the Euro.
If the UK left the EU before Scotland left the Uk, then I would assume they would need to join the Euro to get back into the EU
And some Scots may find that a price too high to pay
Good luck with that. I rather doubt there will be any unbiased sources. I too have yet to make up my mind and I think that the best we can do is read widely.
The situation is this: if the UK votes to leave the EU based on a majority LEAVE in England, while Scotland, and possibly one of the other nations, solidly votes to STAY, then it will be the perfect propaganda tool for the SNP. It will be the ultimate demonstration of those English frustrating the national will of the Scots.
The Scots have generally proven to be more at ease with EU membership than certain English people, and euroscepticism is generally seen as a predominantly English thing.
Perhaps the risk is overegged, but all other things being equal about EU membership, I’d rather not run the risk.
If this reply was directed at me, I’m sorry I wasn’t clear enough in my post. It’s pretty obvious why some Scots might prefer EU membership over UK membership if it truly became an either/or situation.
My closing “Why?” directed at Ryan Liam was actually “Why are you so sure of this result?” As I’d asked in prior paragraphs for his rationale and his evidence. ISTM three things would need to happen:
The UK agrees to hold another succession referendum.
The EU agrees to provisional accession terms for a putative newly independent Scotland.
The Scots vote “aye” to *both *the above.
I’m looking for why & how he thinks #1 & #2 play out such that #3 both has an opportunity to happen, and does in fact happen with the certainty he seems to have.
**Malden Capell ** just above provides a clear motivating rationale for Scots to try to make #1 happen, and for them to vote “aye” to leaving. If, and only if, his scenario comes to pass.
Provided of course they can make #2 happen first on acceptable, and better yet highly desirable, terms.
Also: one of the warnings on the NO side in the Scottish independence referendum was that SNP claims that Scotland would automatically be an EU Member State were bogus - the Commission had made it plain that Scotland would have to apply to join.
Of course if the UK leaves the EU, that’s one of the negatives for leaving the UK out of the way.
Gyrate pretty much answered the question for me, us being taken out of the EU is an extenuating circumstance in which the SNP have the rationale to demand a second referendum, and they absolutely will do that. They dominate the political landscape in Scotland, and will do so for some time.
The SNP will demand a new referendum at the drop of a hat. And leaving the EU is not an extenuating circumstance: as I’ve said before, we knew of the possibility at the time.
And Cameron has just announced that not only will he be stepping down as PM before the next election.
I’m sorry, but I disagree again, leaving the EU is a big deal and is most definitely an extenuating circumstance for the SNP, and I say this as a Unionist. They will absolutely get a second referendum.
While the Scots knew that the UK leaving the EU was something that could happen, there’s a difference between something that could happen and something that is happening.
A referendum will require the consent of the Westminster Parliament and until 2020, with an absolute Tory majority, they have no chance in hell of that happening.
Yes and I will be applying. The only reason I had been holding out was that I need to surrender my passport for an undisclosed amount of time and with the recent issues Sweden has had Migrationsverket has been somewhat overstretched.
But I recently found out that you can apply to have your passport returned if you need it. I have a US road trip planned at the end of June/beginning of July and need it for that, I think I am going to risk applying now.