No rain in California for the first February in 150 years. It feels like an early spring, and I see many fruit and nut trees blossoming already. Beautiful! But atmospheric rivers, the Pineapple or Arctic Express sort, can still return. I’ve seen ice-storms here as late as May. A late Arctic Express could freeze those bright blooms.
What is the chance of major damage to tree crops? Should I ask the Farm Bureau, not Dopers?
What is the debate?
I expect divergent views, not factual answers.
there not much to debate if you’re a professional grower because usually, they plant on the first official “no frost day” for the area avaraged by the USDA like found here although they need to be updated because they redid the plant zone chart … First and Last Frost Dates by USDA Zone
However there are other sources people use like grandma always swore by the old farmers alamac … some people use personal experiences and the like my area is usually around April 9th no matter what the source
The fruit and nut trees that are the subject of the OP aren’t planted annually after the first no frost day… hence the possibility of major problems if they bloom prior to the last frost.
“Fruit and nut trees” is a broad category that doesn’t all bloom at once, and depending on how bad the freeze is there are ways to try to mitigate it that each grower would attempt. There are lots of ways to lose a crop, and fruit tends to be pretty high variance - most widespread problems will not kill everyone’s crop, and paradoxically the market will then reward those whose crops made it unscathed with much higher prices.
The consumer may not like that so much, though.
oops i missed the “tree crops” part …
Is it against GD rules to mention that it isn’t only California that is experiencing drought?
“in Thailand, government forecasters don’t expect heavy rains until late August or early September.” :eek: Normally the monsoon erupts with rain before May.
“In northeastern Thailand, the [Mekong] river is at its lowest level in 100 years… Just how serious the drought has become was evident this week as thousands of people flocked to see the re-emerged remains of a Buddhist temple in central Thailand. The temple was submerged 20 years ago during construction of a dam. Today the dam is at 3 percent capacity … [it] normally irrigates more than 526,000 hectares of farmland … but drought has cut that to just 1,214 hectares …”
Australia, usually one of the biggest wheat exporters, is now importing wheat.
“[Drought] disproportionately impacts the poor, heightening inequality and increasing the prospect of violent conflict in the region.”
Scientists do not think the present Southeast Asian multi-year drought is temporary: the region’s climate has entered a new paradigm.
On the news the other day an almond grower was interviewed among the trees in full bloom, with petals covering the ground, making it look like it had just snowed. He said as long as the bees can get around and pollinate during the dry and warm spell, it should be a good year for his crop as long as bad weather does not disrupt the pollinating phase. If there is bad weather after pollination, the blossoms are already done and the nuts are usually robust enough to withstand cold and wet. Of course a hail storm will knock them off the trees.
It depends on the crop and it’s specific needs and characteristics.
Most of the OP didn’t seem to be talking about drought, but about the possibility of a late freeze interacting with an early bloom. And, to the California grower problems elsewhere in the world are typically good news as crop prices will rise, though it’s bad news to the consumer.
Many of these trees have specific windows during the bloom where they are particularly vulnerable, but then if there’s a mild freeze before or after the fruit won’t be affected. The windows will be different for each crop (and, indeed, for each region for each crop.) For months in the spring some tree crop or other (though each individual orchard for only a few days) is blooming and needs pollination in California.
Some of the vulnerabilities may not be obvious to non-farmers. For example, if it rains on a cherry orchard the day before the cherries are ready to harvest the whole crop may be split and thus good only for juice.