It’s dropping pretty fast in international markets. If it gets there, I think it will need a bump from Spiderman’s release.
My doubts just keep increasing about beating Avatar internationally.
Domestically, it seems it will beat $840M, maybe even $850M. There can be a bump later when the next Marvel movie comes out which makes such estimates iffy.
The weekend-to-weekend dropoffs have been surprisingly high. And this has been happening to a lot of films lately. A ~60% drop is no longer the realm of horror movies and duds. Even family films are taking 50% drops now.
Frontloading is the future, apparently.
Remember when The Sound of Music would play for a year in one theater in town?
Competition is different now. *Sound of Music * barely had anything to compete against for months. Endgame had the luxury of getting a whole extra weekend to itself before Pikachu came out. Since then there’s a new blockbuster coming out every week.
Six or seven weeks out and I’m not sure it’s going to make it. It’s about $45 million short right now and it’s only making about $7.5MM per week.
I could see a rerelease with Infinity War to get it over the top but I just don’t know.
Will Spider-Man give it a boost?
Again, the box office falloff for this is surprising. This last weekend it fell out of the top ten … in the estitmates. Actuals have it barely still in the top ten.
Black Panther ran for 6 months in theaters. A:E isn’t going to get close to that despite the higher start.
Honestly, I’m not surprised at the box office falloff, given that they loaded up the first weekend or the first week with a huge number of showtimes.
That and it doesn’t strike me as a really re-watchable movie. You can, of course, but it doesn’t have the same self-contained narrative arc that lends itself to wanting to see it multiple times. So a bunch of people saw it to conclude the whole current MCU thing, thought “Ok, that was satisfying” but didn’t feel as though they needed to see it a second/third/fourth time.
I think whatever boost it might get form Spider-man will get cancelled out by Toy Story 4 coming out on Friday, which is going to eat up the next two weeks of the box office.
Yep, I just saw that, too.
A rerelease with additional footage should get the job done. As io9 states:
There’s some truth to this. I saw it a second time this weekend because my partner still hadn’t had a chance to see it. It was still very enjoyable, but a lot of the fun of Endgame was just how unpredictable and wild it was – that diminishes a lot on second-viewing. And because they did such a good job making things easy to follow and a lot of references easy to catch, there isn’t really a ton of new things a second viewing brought to it.
I’ll probably go a couple years before wanting to rewatch it, honestly.
Black Panther had longer legs because it was a much breezier movie, was more dense with new stuff, and, of course, had the extra appeal for a huge, under-served audience. And it also helped that it was a much better movie than I think most people expected – the word kept spreading and expanding its audience.
All that being said, the screening of Endgame I attended over the weekend was nearly full.
Yep, they’re getting another $13 from me.
It crossed $850 million last weekend. Far more easily than I thought it would do. There was a big bump the studio managed for the July 4th “weekend”.
Internationally, it now sits $5M away from Avatar.
It’s so odd. $5M was a small fraction of an evening’s take on opening weekend. It’s looking pretty good at getting there even without any re-release/new version stuff but it’s going to take several weeks.
A few million here, a few million there. Pretty soon you’re talking about real money.
Maybe…MAYBE…three more weeks?
$5MM. I think there’s a chance to make it in August. But I still feel confident if it doesn’t there’ll be some form of ‘special release’ around Christmas or something with something new to help it cross the finish line. It’d be good - and I bet they want to be able to say - to cross Avatar in its first run but I bet they’ll live with doing it with a release.
I want it to beat Avatar’s record too, but I also expect a re-release of Avatar when the sequel comes out, twelve years after the first one.
On a the news this morning it was mentioned that it has passed Avatar, though boxofficemojo doesn’t show it yet.
Brian
It already beat Avatar. But as Dewey Finn says a re-release by Avatar would easily push them right past again.
" In recent days, however, Disney found additional money when reconciling the movie’s final global earnings, …"
Movie studio accountants are of course completely trustworthy. :rolleyes:
(But, seriously, BoxOfficeMojo is fairly slow on getting and reporting international box office.)
There was also an oddity with Black Panther where in its final theater days before video release it suddenly jumped and crossed $700M.
And of course don’t think about the inflation-adjusted numbers. If you do that, Avatar is at $3.3 billion.
BoxOfficeMojo now shows it as half-a-million ahead of AVATAR.