How much money will the new Star Wars trilogy make?

Alright, prediction time.

Right now according to BoxOfficeMojo, Episode VII is sitting at a gross take of $812.7 million domestic, and $1.7338 billion worldwide after ~4 weeks in theaters. It has already passed Avatar as the highest grossing film of all time in the U.S. domestically, but it needs to earn a little over a billion bucks more in order to pass Avatar’s worldwide gross ($2.788 billion) and be the highest grossing film, period.

First question is will Episode VII pass Avatar’s worldwide gross? I think it will.

Second question is how much, in total, do you think each installment in the new trilogy will end up grossing? We can come back to this thread in a few years and whoever guesses closest wins a cookie!

I think Episode VIII will make a little less than VII (since VII got the novelty factor of being the “first” new Star Wars), but IX will make the most of all since it’s “The End”. My estimates:

Episode VII: $1.2 billion domestic, $3 billion worldwide
Episode VIII: $900 million domestic, $2.4 billion worldwide
Episode IX: $1.4 billion domestic, $3.6 billion worldwide

I think your estimates are reasonable. It’s possible the constant release of Star Wars movies (one every year) will interfere with that, it might be a bit exhausting. Also I think that, though this is sort of planned as a trilogy by tradition, it’s also spoken of as ongoing, and Episode IX may not be the end of the story after all.

It is not expected for Episode VII to earn 3 billion world-wide. I think it might crack $1 billion domestically.

I don’t even think they are expecting Force to pass Avatar internationally. It’s a billion short now and I don’t think it has another billion in it, even opening in China this last week.

I have no cites right now, but predictors are also not predicting it to pass Avatar world-wide anymore.

All of it. Bankers will be checking seat cushions for leftover coins to try to keep the economy moving.

I think those numbers are wildly inflated. As of January 10, it’s made $812 million domestically. The last week totaled $70 million, and the last weekend dropped by 50%. If that drop stays constant that projects to an additional $70 million total. So it needs to have a slower loss rate just to hit $900 million. It probably will, but I’d put a billion out of reach, much less $1.4.

Similarly, the worldwide non-US total is $921 million. I thought China was the last big market for it to open in. It made over $50 million the first weekend, good but not a record. It may hit $200 million. A generous estimate therefore is another $450 million international, for a total of $1.35 billion.

That’s $2.3 billion, right in Titanic’s ballpark but half a billion less than Avatar. Both Avatar and Titanic had extremely long tails due primarily to their relatively low openings. Star Wars had the hugest opening ever; its tail is likely going to be diminished proportionally.

I’d drop all the domestic numbers. International grosses are trending up so I’ll keep those steady or slightly growing.

Episode VII: $950 million domestic, $2.3 billion worldwide
Episode VIII: $700 million domestic, $2.1 billion worldwide
Episode IX: $800 million domestic, $2.3 billion worldwide

Looking at other top movies in China, the opening weekend usually ends up around 40-50% of total gross. Barring a huge surge, I don’t think it will top $150 mil there.

The Force Awakens could’ve made a lot more money if their thunder wasn’t stolen by Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip.

An interesting side question is how well will Rogue One do? Will the side stories in the Star Wars universe do as well at the box office as the ones from the main arc?

Nope, but it will do quite well. I mean, if it is as amazing as Empire Strikes Back, it will do as well as a main one, but it won’t catch Force Awakens.

While I doubt it will pass Avatar on its initial run, they will surely re-release it before Episode VIII comes out, and it should get a nice bump then. 3D and Imax versions give a good reason to see it again in a theater, not at home.

A lot depends on the quality of the movies also. If Episode VIII follows the original trilogy model and is a downer it might make a little less. On the other hand if it is more original it might make a bit more. Ditto for Episode IX. Strongly depends if there are Ewok clones in it.

I have no idea if they’ll go this direction, but I kind of like the idea of a smaller-scale heist movie set in the Star Wars universe – much like last summer’s Ant-Man brought the Marvel universe back down to scale (pun 43% intended).

Just a side note: The Empire Strikes Back is by far the worst grosser of the 7, with $100 million less than the disappointing meh that was Return of the Jedi. Star Wars doesn’t run on quality or logic.

Keep in mind, Avatar was in theaters for an utterly unprecedented 34 weeks. When it had been out 4 weeks, as Episode VII has, it had made nowhere near the same amount of money. Not even remotely close.

Now, I don’t think Episode VII will stay in theaters for 34 weeks. But it has plenty of steam left in it, especially with so many people going to see it over and over (as some did with Avatar as well).

Sure, if you ignore inflation.

Box Office Mojo says otherwise.

(Though maybe that’s factoring in the re-release?)

(Though, come to think of it, that might be relevant regardless.)

(Be that as it may, EMPIRE also looks like it cost a lot less to make than JEDI.)

Unprecedented? Titanic ran 41 weeks. ET ran 52.

In my mind, the differences are the overwhelming size of Star Wars opening and the recent trend to spread out movies so that the early part of the year isn’t reserved for total dreck.

It was only three years. And from 1980 to 1983, inflation dropped significantly.

If you go into the original weekend charts on, RotJ made $252 million over 42 weeks and TESB did $145 million over 13 weeks. Inflation wasn’t the factor.

Huh, didn’t know that. So maybe not unprecedented, but still an unusually long run. But if Episode VII stays in theaters even half as long as Avatar did, I think it will blow by its worldwide gross easily. In fact, I think all my original estimates are going to turn out to be too conservative. But we shall see.

Bumping because, post-MLK weekend, Box Office Mojo now puts FORCE AWAKENS ahead of AVATAR even on the adjusted-for-inflation domestic gross; and it’s just now passed EMPIRE STRIKES BACK by that metric, having passed RETURN OF THE JEDI a while back. (Unadjusted for inflation, of course, it’s just plain terrific.)

For prediction purposes, the relevant numbers are a 38% drop in the weekend gross as well as a 312 dip in the number of theaters showing it. That’s in line with the extrapolation I made.

Star Wars went past the $900 million North American and $2 billion international marks this week. Not much left but the dregs. Great numbers, but Rigamarole’s were never realistic.