I’ve heard of this (the “Bradley Effect”), but I’m not aware that it’s been reliably demonstrated to exist. Is anyone aware of it being proven?
I hate to be the naysayer, but if McCain is even or ahead in national polls in early November, Obama is cooked. I say this for two reasons.
First, Obama is generally polling pretty well in red states like North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia, and probably doing better than I’d otherwise think in Texas. McCain is going to win those states and get their EVs, even if Obama draws in millions more votes from all of those red states (and others). So in essence, Obama’s national numbers are probably a wee bit inflated, non-landline voters notwithstanding. (And on that point, I’ll believe young cell-phone only voters will vote in large numbers when they actually head to the polls, and not a minute before.)
Furthermore, I believe race is still an issue when people answer polls. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that, just like in the Harold Ford-Bob Corker race in Tennessee in 06, some white voters are simply going to change their mind once they get in the booth. Not because they will say to themselves they can’t vote for a black man, but because they’ll come up with an excuse why voting for Obama isn’t a safe choice for them.
I’m still optimistic that Obama will win, but if McCain is even or ahead in national polls at election day, I’m not sure how Obama can pull off a Bush-Gore kind of lose the national vote and squeak by in the key states.
I don’t know. Maybe it’s a myth. But enough otherwise decent people who have no problems dealing with black folks are telling me they don’t want them in charge of things, and it’s giving me Harvey Gantt deja vu.
Gallup calls cell phones. From the Gallup Daily Tracker boilerplate:
I read an article about it before and they ask if they’re calling a cell phone and, if so, is the cell phone their only phone. If it is, they count it into their polling. I assume that if you say you have a landline then they take you off the list. I have no idea if Rasmussen does cell phones or not.
Hotline/FD have started a daily tracker from now until the elections. I have no idea how reputable they are and they seem to use a significantly smaller sample than Gallup/Rasmussen (~900 vs ~2800) but it’ll be nice to have a third daily voice to the mix given how Gallup & Rasmussen often differ noticably from one another. RCP adds them to their scores so at least they must be better than ARG 
That explains why Gallup consistently shows Obama a few points higher than the other polls.
538.com did an article about the “Bradley Effect.” He noted that during the primaries, Obama actually OUTPERFORMED his polling numbers, not underperformed. The conclusion is your’s whether you can generalize this to the general election however.
I remember a pretty well-sourced Newsweek article a few years back that was more convincing than I wish it had been. It seems to be an article of faith among Dem strategists.
Here it is:
Sure, ever since he proved himself a viable candidate Obama’s had the black voted locked up. And since blacks are disproportionately represented in the Democratic party, you’d expect such an effect. But what about the other 60 something percent of the electorate? Put another way, would we still expect a black Republican to outperform the polls in the presidential primaries?
It gets called the Bradley Effect only by those wishing to prove that race doesn’t matter. The Douglas Wilder Effect or the Harvey Gantt Effect would be more appropriate names.
I guess we’re about to find out if Obama can win if he drops below McCain:
Gallup Daily: McCain moves ahead 48% to 45%
USA Today/Gallup: McCain ahead 4% among registered voters, 10% among likely voters
Bear in mind that the 3 day tracking polls started before the convention ended. McCain will probably get more of a bump tomorrow yet, and maybe some more on Tuesday.
Rasmussen electoral college has Obama leading slightly, 193 to 183.
because of sam, I will be voting for McCain. I love Obama and believe in everything he says. I also believe that Palin is not qualified tn be President. I an also old enough and wise enough to realize there are those more learned and smarter than me . I hope sam is right. I have trusted him up to now.
i only posted this because everyone thinks they can change minds arguing. Tv does work once in a great long while.
From a non-partisan standpoint, I wonder what’s up with RCP including the Gallup/USA poll. I say this because they excluded the last Gallup/USA poll showing Obama ahead by +9 or so because it included some Gallup tracker data and they felt it muddied the waters to use the same data twice. From what I’ve read, the new Gallup/USA poll uses the same methodology but RCP has included it in their tracking.
It is what it is but it seems shakey is all.
What would be funny would be if Obama lost the popular vote but won in the electoral college. Just to see the flip-flops.
IIRC, this is what happened with Bush in 2004 - he was behind in the polls and then moved into a permanent lead after the convention. And then went on to win the election, fair and square.
Not saying this will necessarily happen here, just that it is not unprecedented. Wonder if the MSM will start sending out memos to slant the coverage against McCain, or fake up some documents.
Regards,
Shodan
Bush was ahead prior to the conventions (he was leading in late August with the convention from Aug 30-Sept 2) although his lead didn’t really open up until afterwards.
This is disturbing. And irritating. And somewhat nauseating. Oh, well, at least there’s this:
And this:
There would be plenty of flip-flopping on both sides.
I really don’t understand the logic behind the Bradley Effect, or whatever you want to call it. If someone doesn’t want to vote for Obama because he’s black, why would they tell a pollster that they were going to vote for him, when they could just make up some other reason for not voting for him? I really can’t picture someone who is uncomfortable with an African American as president ever saying to anyone that they’d vote for him. If they were self-conscious about their reasons, they could just as easily say they were voting for McCain or whomever because they didn’t agree with Obama’s policies. Am I totally misunderstanding what you all are saying?
The Rasmussen tracking pollputs McCain ahead marginally at 47-46. That sound about right to me; I am pretty sure the one with a 10 point lead will turn out to be an outlier. At this stage figuring out who the likely voters is pretty dubious.
McCain got a decent bounce from the convention but we will have to wait a few more days before we can figure out if the race has been significantly altered after the convention cycle. My hunch is that it will return to something like before with Obama up a few points.