Let’s see. trump won’t release his taxes. Moore seemingly cheated on his taxes. And yet conservatives wonder why the IRS seemed to target conservative anti-tax groups for special attention.
Even with the latest revelations about ex-judge Moore, he’s still gotta be the overwhelming favorite.
Still, I think it’s worth the candle for Dems to try to win this thing.
- To regain control of the Senate, they need to pick up 3 seats (and hold on to what they’ve got).
- There are really only 2 obvious pickup opportunities: NV and AZ. The odds against their winning any other currently GOP-held Senate seats in 2018 are pretty stratospheric.
- So even if you look at this race and say Moore’s a 20-1 favorite, it may still be the best shot the Dems have at that third seat.
- Plus it’s the only Senate race between now and next November. There are 33 Senate races and 435 House races next year, and they can’t fight them all then; there’s just too damn many, and a pretty large subset of them are foregone conclusions anyway. But they can fight this one right now.
- And they can fundraise between now and then on the fact that they fought this race rather than conceding it to the GOP. Most of us Resistance types want to see some fight from the Dems.
Add another plus – forcing other Republicans to come to Alabama and campaign with Moore, which can be used as campaign fodder against those other Republicans in future campaigns (since Moore is likely to be a boogeyman to progressives for years if he is elected).
I think this is the biggest thing. The Democrats need to be seen to care about all Americans, even Alabamans. This is why Obama pursued a 50-state strategy, even though there were some states where he stood even less chance than this race.
Latest polls (I know, I know, it’s early) show a near deadlock.
It’s possible the GOP has finally nominated someone even Alabama can’t stomach.
I hope someone is pointing out that Moore has lost every fight he’s picked. And just this year he even quit before the process played out in his latest fight (over Alabama’s same-sex marriage ban post-Obergefell). So he doesn’t exactly have an enviable track record.
What’s the latest. I saw the Fox News one that was tied, but I though other, equally recent ones showed Moore much further ahead.
Alas, he managed to get elected twice as Chief Justice. And was removed twice. He did fail at getting elected Governor, though. Couldn’t even win the primary either time.
Assuming that Moore wins, but does much worse than expected, how would that change the relationship between Trump and the GOP?
Aye but getting elected isn’t the fight; that’s just jockeying for position. Once he was in a position to pick a fight, he did. Twice. And he got his ass handed to him both times. So what good would he do the people of Alabama if they elected him?
But this time he *won *the primary. It’s a different environment now, as you may have noticed.
He’d make many of them feel good for “fighting for Christianity” and play into the Christian persecution complex and make them feel validated in feeling percuted.
He’s projected to win by a very thin margin. If he does any worse than expected, he’d lose.
So Moore won the Republican primary. What about the general election? He’s got problems: Nobody Really Likes Roy Moore -- Not Even Alabama Republicans
Anyone got any thoughts about what, if anything, the Virginia and Georgia results on Tuesday have to say about this race?
I’m thinking Doug Jones has a real chance. I’m thinking maybe a 20-25% chance, rather than the 5% chance I tossed out earlier. And even more easily the Dems’ best chance at that third Senate pickup they’d need to gain control of the Senate a year from now.
Basically, the Dems could win if Moore suppresses voter turnout from Republicans AND Jones gets the Democrats to come out in force. If the Republicans get to the polls, they’ll hold their noses and tick the guy with the R next to his name regardless.
20-25% is probably as optimistic as I’d get.
No, it will still be pretty much master/slaves.
I don’t know if the dems will win the senate, I doubt it. But if they win the house, will also winning the senate help them any? With the house the dems can conduct investigations and block legislation. The senate wouldn’t add to that except also allow the dems to block Trump judge appointments. Seems like most of the dems agenda (conduct investigations and block legislation) is obtainable with just one chamber of the legislature.
As far as competitive races, some early polls showed Ted Cruz behind a democrat in Texas. Who knows if that is reliable though.
IIRC, Dems are defending 23 Senate seats next year and the GOP just 8. It’s gonna be an uphill climb for us Democrats to take control of the Senate.
Is the current tax reform legislation that Republicans are trying to pass playing a role in this race? I don’t know what the timetable is for the winner of this race to actually be seated, but if Jones can win that would be one more vote against passing tax legislation. Is Jones using that in his campaign, coming out against a tax plan that mostly benefits the rich?
Edited to add. I assume Rand Paul is against the current tax legislation. If Jones wins that means only one other Republican senator needs to flip to defeat the legislation. That should be a powerful motivating force to bring the voters out.
Uphill, but those numbers are something of a red herring.
- Given Tuesday’s results, it’s hardly a long shot for the Dems to keep every seat they’ve got.
- Then it gets down to the pickups.
a) Where the 8 is important is that 6 of them are in very unlikely Dem pickup territory. The best opportunities among those 6 are in Texas (Ted Cruz’ seat) and for the open seat in Tennessee with Sen. Corker retiring. And neither of those are very promising.
b) The other two are in NV and AZ - Dean Heller’s seat, and the open seat due to Jeff Flake’s coming retirement. Heller is vulnerable (and the Dems already have a good challenger), and there’s a good chance that the AZ GOP will nominate a real nutcase for Flake’s seat, improving the Dem candidate’s opportunity.
c) That’s why it’s worth tossing some money to Doug Jones. IF he pulls off a win, the Dems’ chance at retaking the Senate drastically improve.