Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December?

I think it would help them.

First, as you say, they’d be able to block judicial nominations, which is a big deal. Anthony Kennedy could start feeling his age, or the Notorious RBG could have a stroke, or who knows. And they’d be able to slow or stop Trump’s stocking the lower courts with right-wing judges too.

Second, they’d be able to pass legislation and put it on Trump’s desk to sign or veto. He’d either have to go to war with the Dems - and the Dems could pass all sorts of good stuff that would look terrible to veto - or decide to deal with them. Given the interactions between Trump and the Schumer-Pelosi team so far, I think there would be some successful dealing.

Moore is refusing to debate Jones. That’s an opportunity for Jones to rhetorically call him out as a coward, either providing a campaign cudgel to use again and again (e.g. “why is Roy Moore afraid to debate Doug Jones…?”), or to get him on the debate stage and expose him for wingnuttery that (hopefully) might even be too far for some Republican voters.

Jones is already doing just that, I’m glad to say.

The Washington Post has just broke a story saying that Roy Moore initiated a sexual encounter with a 14 year old girl when Moore was 32.

I’d say the chances of Jones’ victory just increased:

There is still time to remove him and replace him with someone who isn’t a child molesting bigot. (ETA: I don’t know if there is still time under AL law. But they can disavow and stop funding him)

But I doubt the GOP will do that.

Well, that’s a surprise.

Given the great show Moore makes of his fear and hatred of Teh Gayz, I would have expected such a scandal to involve a 14-year-old boy.

Unless there’s a mechanism for the party to outright remove him from the ticket, they’re stuck with him – he’s too stubborn to step aside for the good of the party.

Even then, they’re probably screwed, given the number of derplorables who would be pissed off at the “RINOs” for stabbing their man in the back.

While I’m not surprised by this, I doubt the kinds of people who vote for Roy Moore will care. Trump’s behavior didn’t bother them either.

I miss the days when saying the phrase ‘legitimate rape’ was all it took to end a conservative campaign that should have been a shoe in. Now being a pedophile is barely an issue.

I’m glad the Post story went into some specific details, it makes it far more difficult for a rational person to just dismiss it as ‘fake news.’ For Jones to win, he’ll need some Republican voters to throw up their hands and just stay home.

Moore will probably still win.

A couple of things that might work against Moore: Voter fatigue. Remember, this is the third election just for this special Senate race for Republicans since there was a primary and then a runoff primary. Also, this odd date of December 12 for the special election. In a lot of workplaces, those first two weeks of December are fairly hectic, since people want to get everything done before year end and a lot of people like to take time off those last two weeks of the year. I could see a lot of more moderate Republicans just sitting out this election, they may never vote for Democrat but the stench of Moore might just be too much.

I’m visiting Alabama later this month to visit family (all hard-core right-wing fundies) and I’ve contacted the Doug Jones campaign headquarters to volunteer as much as I can while I’m out there. Keeping my fingers crossed that this long shot can pull out a win.

At the moment, the betting market PredictIt has Moore down below 50 percent to win. This morning he was around 90. Jones is up from ten to around 40.

Bettors apparently are taking the latest allegations seriously.

I predict the GOP will not withdraw his nomination.

McConnell said “if true” Moore should step aside. Several other senators too. We’ll see if they stick to that in a week. Lots of people condemned Trump temporarily after the Access Hollywood tape too.

I’m slightly more optimistic.

I went to the Alabama senate PredictIt market as soon as I heard about this story.

Moore is down $0.34 today but Jones only rose by $0.23. Why the difference? Because Luther Strange is up $0.05 and Mo Brooks is up $0.02.

So at least some people think there’s a chance of Moore dropping out or being forced out in some way.

McConnell is a telling sign. Ordinarily, the would be all about denial. Failing that, they would fall back on too soon, wait for thorough investigation. This is a clear sign they want him gone, and gone soon enough so they can stick somebody else in there and still salvage the seat.

(emphasis gleefully added)

Da fuk? Its like the bus was waiting at the curb for the throw-under ceremony!

I think it would have to be a dead girl or live boy to really be the last straw. Still, with the Democratic enthusiasm we saw in Virginia combined with this to dampen Republican enthusiasm, this could be the crazy year that sees a Democratic Senator from Alabama.

An accusation of an event from 40 years ago? C’mon now. Anyone can accuse anyone of anything. I’m of the opinion that since we have something called “courts” trials of people accused of crimes should usually occur there.

Plus we all know as the great political sage James Carville once said “Drag a hundred-dollar bill through a trailer park, you never know what you’ll find.”