I laughed.
Needless nitpick: Nate Silver gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, and he got slammed for putting it that high when PEC and HuffPo were giving him a 0-2% chance.
I actually meant by my post that PredictIt seems pessimistic to me. I think he’s got a better than 31% chance of winning. I guess we’ll know for sure in a few hours though, so not much point in speculating over it.
They’re already gaming this. The Republicans in the state legislature are currently trying to push through a bill that would change the manner in which vacant seats are filled. Instead of holding a special election as under the current law, it will allow the governor to appoint someone to fill the remainder of the term.
If this passes, Republicans in the Senate can remove Moore from office, reap the PR from this move, and get someone in to gain 2 years of name recognition before the next general election.
If they do remove Moore for being an unhinged sexual predator, perhaps they’ll enjoy the view from the moral high ground so much that they’ll head back there to remove another unhinged sexual predator from power.
Yeah, I know it won’t happen. I can dream, right?
It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a state legislature has messed with the rules to achieve political goals (see Massachusetts)
MSNBC just showed some exit poll results – I don’t remember all the numbers, but a key one gave me some hope:
Favorability/Unfavorability
Moore: 46/49
Jones: 48/46
!!!
17th Amendment says (in part)
Any legal scholars (Bricker?) want to weigh in on if there’s precedent for how long a “temporary appointment” can be? To me, it appears that delaying the election for years would not be consistent with the Constitution.
More hopeful exit poll data (from the TV, so no cite):
Favorable/Unfavorable
Republican party: 43/51
Democratic party: 44/52
From exit polls on TV:
30% of the electorate is black. That’s several points higher than in '12 (the last year they had exit polls). More good news for Jones.
That one doesn’t look so great… :dubious:
PredictIt has been moving towards Jones the last half hour or so – now up to about 40% for Jones. Bettors must be thinking the exit poll numbers are more favorable for Jones than they felt before.
It’s very surprising to me that the Alabama favorabilities are essentially the same for both parties. If that holds up, Jones only needs a few % of Republicans disgusted by Moore to win.
I was (if you will note) very specifically responding to the statement by Dr Deth that having sex with a 16 y.o. was statutory rape, which, as an officer of the law, he knew better than to commit.
Same God, different Prophet.
I’d be dumbfounded if it cold go past the original term expiration. I’d be quite surprised if it could go past the next regular two-year election for Representatives when all voters would be going to the polls. I suspect it would hard to successfully challenge not holding it before then.
While we’re waiting for the polls to close…
Do people in Alabama call themselves Alabamians or Alabamans? I keep seeing the former in print, but I would have thought it was the latter.
I think we should just chalk it up to one of the mysteries of flyover country that the MSM will never understand
Serious answer though: I thought it was the latter as well.
There might be some edge case where the office is vacated / temporary appointee named just a few days / weeks before the election that I could reasonable see it stretching a little bit beyond two years.
I used to have a neighbor from there, and his little boy called the state “Amabama,” so I guess the people are Amabamans.
Come on, Alabama. Let’s keep Molester Claus out of the Senate.